The first top-10 showdown of the 2024 college football season features No. 3 Texas at No. 10 Michigan on Saturday.
Game time is scheduled for 12 p.m. ET, and it will be televised on Fox. This is the first regular-season matchup between the Longhorns and Wolverines. Both teams made the College Football Playoff in 2023, and this is a premier SEC-Big Ten non-conference matchup.
Texas (1-0) shut out Colorado State 52-0 in its opener. Quarterback Quinn Ewers passed for 260 yards, three TDs and an interception, and backup Arch Manning added 95 passing yards and two total TDs. The Longhorns have built a championship contender under coach Steve Sarkisian, and this is a chance to score a signature road victory for the second consecutive season.
Michigan (1-0) opened the Sherrone Moore era with a 30-10 victory against Fresno State. The Wolverines scored 17 fourth-quarter points after a shaky offensive performance. Davis Warren and Alex Orji are sharing quarterback duties, and the running game and offense line will be challenged against the Longhorns. Michigan does have an elite defense led by Mason Graham and Will Johnson, who had an 86-yard interception return for touchdown against the Bulldogs.
This is a blue-blood matchup that will carry College Football Playoff implications later in the season. Here is everything you need to know about the Longhorns and Wolverines.
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Michigan vs. Texas odds
- Spread: Texas -7.5
- Over/under: 43.5
- Moneyline: Texas -285, Michigan +228
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</ad>This line has ticked up a half-point since Saturday and almost three points from where it opened. Michigan has been a home underdog one time the last three seasons – and they beat Ohio State 42-27 on Nov. 21, 2021.
Texas vs. Michigan: Three trends to know
— Texas is 7-3 S/U and 5-5 ATS as an away favorite under Steve Sarkisian. The Longhorns are 6-9 S/U against 6-8-1 ATS against top-25 teams under Sarkisian since 2021.
— Michigan has won 23 straight home games – the second-longest active streak in the FBS. The Wolverines are 10-3 S/U and 10-3 ATS against top 25 teams since 2021.
— This is the first top-10 game of the season. Texas is 1-4 S/U against top-10 teams under Sarkisian. Moore led Michigan to top-10 victories against Penn State and Ohio State while filling in for Jim Harbaugh during his three-game suspension in 2023. This isn't Moore's first experience in a high-level game.
MORE: Texas, Michigan project to College Football Playoff after Week 1
Texas vs. Michigan: Three things to watch
Which team maintains a running game?
Of course, teams try to establish the run in games like this. Michigan's offensive line struggled to get a push against Fresno State until the second half, but it still is a viable threat for a rebuilt Texas interior line that lost Byron Murphy and T'Vondre Sweat to the 2024 NFL Draft. Kalel Mullings was the hot hand for the Wolverines with 92 yards on 6.1 yards per carry in Week 1, and Orji also averaged 6.4 yards. Perhaps Orji plays more on run downs in this game. Donovan Edwards struggled with 11 carries for 27 yards, but he has a penchant for playing well in big games. This would be one of those times.
Michigan's run defense is dominant with a defensive line that features Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant on the interior. Josiah Stewart had two sacks off the edge. Michigan allowed nine yards on 22 attempts. Texas lost running backs CJ Baxter and Christian Clark before the season, which means Jaydon Blue (11 carries, 57 yards vs. Colorado State) and Jerrick Gibson (10 carries, 67 yards) will be tasked with getting the running game going to ease some pressure off Ewers, especially in the first half.
Texas WRs vs. Michigan DBs
This is the best position matchup in this game. The Longhorns have depth at receiver. Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond, Johntay Cook II, Matthew Golden and freshman Ryan Wingo all had at least 50 yards receiving in Week 1. Ewers will spread the football around, but the Wolverines are an opportunistic secondary. Johnson is a game-breaker at cornerback, and nickel back Zeke Berry had an interception in Week 1. Ewers was 8 of 9 for 156 yards in the middle of the field past the line of scrimmage last week. Expect the Longhorns to test that short and intermediate middle early in the game. Can Ewers squeeze in the vertical passes like he did against Alabama the last two seasons? Michigan safety Makari Page will be a key player in those situations.
What is Michigan's QB plan?
According to Pro Football Focus, Warren was 0 of 5 with an interception on passes of 10 yards or more. Moore is going to have to take more chances in the passing game, and the Longhorns likely will shade coverages at tight end Colston Loveland, who caught eight of nine targets for 87 yards and a TD in the opener. Michigan wide receivers combined for six catches for 34 yards. Will Michigan offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell vary the passing attack? Clemson safety Andrew Mukuba anchors a talented secondary that will have more opportunities for interceptions here.
Or will Michigan throw a curve with Orji – who was 1 of 2 passing for three yards. Orji has been more of a situational player to this point. Expect Warren to be the more focal point in an offense that will try to play from ahead against the Longhorns.
MORE: Ranking all 134 teams after Week 1
Texas vs. Michigan stat that matters: Quinn Ewers vs. top defenses
This is a Quinn Ewers game, and it is the toughest defense he has faced since taking over as Texas' starter in 2022. Ewers has faced a team that finished in the top 30 in total defense four times.
Those games are the home-and-home matchups with Alabama in 2022-23, and Iowa State and Kansas State in 2022. Ewers missed the Kansas State matchup last season. Ewers is 3-1 in those games – albeit one where he was knocked out of the only loss in the first half with a shoulder injury. Ewers is 68 of 107 (63.6%) for 213 yards per game with eight TDs and no interceptions. He does not turn the ball over in these games, and that will be a difference-maker.
| DATE | OPPONENT | SCORE | COMP | ATT | YDS | TDS | INTS |
| 9/10/2022 | vs. Alabama* | L 20-19 | 9 | 12 | 134 | 0 | 0 |
| 15/10/2022 | vs. Iowa State | W 24-21 | 17 | 26 | 172 | 3 | 0 |
| 11/5/2022 | at Kansas State | W 34-27 | 18 | 31 | 197 | 2 | 0 |
| 9/9/2023 | at Alabama | W 34-24 | 24 | 38 | 349 | 3 | 0 |
* - injured in first half
Texas vs. Michigan prediction
Michigan hasn't allowed three TD passes in a game since Oct. 9, 2021. Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez had three TDs, but Michigan won 32-29. The Wolverines will need to force turnovers early to build momentum, and kicker Dominic Zvada – who hit two field goals of 50-plus yards in Week 1 – could be a X-factor if it is tight late.
Ewers will work the middle of the field in the passing game, and if the protection is there, that will wear on the Wolverines. That will loosen the running game up just enough to build a TD lead at halftime. The Wolverines will have more success on the ground and see some improvement from Warren, but it will not be enough. Moore will be forced to take a couple more chances, and the Longhorns will come up with a key turnover in the fourth quarter. It's closer than expected, but Texas escapes with another impressive non-conference road victory that will be a separator in the College Football Playoff race later.
Final score: Texas 27, Michigan 24
