Texas is No. 7 in the polls, but the Longhorns are closer to their first College Football Playoff than the rankings might first appear.
Texas beat No. 19 Oklahoma State 49-21 in the Big 12 championship on Saturday. The Longhorns got some help on Friday night when No. 3 Washington beat No. 5 Oregon 34-31 in the Pac-12 championship game.
- Pac-12: No. 3 Washington 34, No. 5 Oregon 31
- Big 12: No. 7 Texas 49, No. 18 Oklahoma State 21
- SEC: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Alabama (Saturday, 4 p.m., CBS)
- ACC: No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 14 Louisville (Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC)
- Big Ten: No. 2 Michigan vs. vs. No. 16 Iowa (Saturday, 8 p.m., FOX)
It’s not quite as simple as win-and-get-in for third-year coach Steve Sarkisian, and Texas likely will be entangled in some intriguing arguments for a CFP spot with the other current one-loss teams. Texas vs. Alabama? Texas vs. Florida State? Those are coming.
This is the Longhorns' first Big 12 championship since 2009. That is the first piece of this Texas-sized playoff puzzle. The rest is an intriguing proposition.
MORE: CFP scenarios, from chalk to chaos
Can Texas still make College Football Playoff?
The Longhorns were one of eight Power 5 teams with one loss or less heading into conference championship weekend. Keep in mind no two-loss team has ever made the four-team College Football Playoff. Oregon lost, however, and Ohio State does not have the benefit of a conference championship game. Here is a look at the remaining teams in the hunt:
| RK. | TEAM | RECORD |
| 1 | Georgia | 12-0 |
| 2 | Michigan | 12-0 |
| 3 | Washington | 13-0 |
| 4 | Florida State | 12-0 |
| 5 | Texas | 12-1 |
| 6 | Alabama | 11-1 |
Texas has options, but this would be the preferred scenario for the other four championship games:
Washington beats Oregon in Pac-12 championship
This knocked the Ducks into the two-loss heap and put Washington into the CFP as an unbeaten team. It is better to get Oregon out of the way in this instance because the Ducks were the higher-ranked one-loss team.
Georgia beats Alabama in SEC championship
Now, there is the scenario where Alabama beats Georgia, and the Longhorns would be in a debate with those two schools for the final playoff spot (we’ll sketch that out shortly). It would clear the deck a little more if the Bulldogs knock the Crimson Tide out of the picture even though Texas has that head-to-head victory against Alabama.
Iowa beats Michigan in Big Ten championship
This is the least likely result, but a one-loss Texas team with a conference champion would bump ahead of the Wolverines in the rankings. Michigan is a 23.5-point favorite against the Hawkeyes, so Texas should not be counting on this part to come through.
Louisville beats Florida State in ACC championship
This would knock Florida State into the one-loss pileup, but they wouldn’t have a conference championship. It’s easy to leap-frog the Seminoles at that point.
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Two Texas College Football Playoff debates
If the above scenario unfolds, then the Longhorns would be in the CFP. Even if Michigan wins, Texas would be in with a Florida State loss.
Now, depending on how the other games shake out these potential head-to-head arguments could happen.
Texas (12-1) vs. Florida State (13-0)
This is our first scenario listed among nine possibilities. Georgia, Michigan and Washington win. Florida State beats Louisville in a close call, and Texas blows out Oklahoma State. Would the committee entertain putting the one-loss Longhorns in over the unbeaten Seminoles? We don’t think so.
Texas (12-1) vs. Alabama (12-1) vs. Georgia (12-1)
Scenario No. 3: Michigan, Washington and Florida State win and stay unbeaten. Alabama beats Georgia, and that leaves the Longhorns in a one-loss debate against the two heavyweights. Texas would have a head-to-head victory against Alabama and the conference championship that Georgia does not have. That would be enough to keep the SEC out of the CFP, right? Right?
Texas strength of schedule
According to ESPN, the Longhorns rank seventh in the Football Power Index. Texas also ranks No. 13 in strength of schedule. It might have helped if Oklahoma made the Big 12 championship game, which would have given Texas a chance to avenge its regular-season loss to the Sooners. Still, Texas can add a fourth victory against a ranked opponent this season if it can beat the Cowboys.
Texas strength of record
According to ESPN, the Longhorns rank No. 6 in strength of record. That is one spot behind Ohio State, another one-loss team in the mix. Texas would likely jump Ohio State anyway with a conference championship victory knowing the Buckeyes are not playing in the Big Ten championship game after the 30-24 loss to Michigan. Sarkisian needs to keep harping on that head-to-head victory against Alabama.
Will Texas make College Football Playoff?
Oregon's loss helped. If the Seminoles lose, then it is a good bet the Longhorns will join TCU as the only schools from Texas to reach the College Football Playoff. Of course, they have to take care of the Cowboys in a Big 12 championship that doubles as a farewell game before Texas moves on to the SEC. Texas made its case with a victory against the Cowboys.
