No.13 TCU hosts No. 8 Oklahoma State Saturday afternoon at Amon G. Carter Stadium (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC) in a matchup of the last two unbeaten teams in the Big 12. TCU looks for its third-straight victory over a ranked team (No. 18 Oklahoma, No. 19 Kansas), while Oklahoma State attempts to notch a road win in Fort Worth for the first time since 2016.
TCU enters Week 7 after a gritty road win over Kansas, one where the Horned Frogs put up 38 points (28 of which came in the second half). In the win, senior quarterback Max Duggan continued his efficient play, completing 22-of-33 passes for 308 yards and three TDs. Duggan did toss his first interception of the season late in the first half when he tried to force one to stud WR Quentin Johnston, but he enters Week 7 with the fifth-highest QBR in the nation (88.5). Speaking of Johnston, he was practically uncoverable last week, hauling in 14 passes for 206 yards and the game's winning score with 1:36 remaining in the fourth quarter.
Oklahoma State comes into Week 7 off a 41-31 home win over Texas Tech, one where the game was much closer than the final score indicated. The Pokes railed from an eight-point second-half deficit, scoring the game's final 18 points en route to an 11-point victory. Mike Gundy's bunch sits in a similar spot to where they were last season as some College Football Playoff hype is starting to recirculate. In what could very well be a back-and-forth contest that comes down to the final minutes, which team will maintain its unblemished record?
MORE COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING: Week 7 ATS Picks
Here's everything to know about betting on the Week 7 matchup between the Horned Frogs and Cowboys:
TCU vs. Oklahoma State odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
- Spread: TCU -3.5
- Over/Under: 68.5
- Moneyline: TCU -190; Oklahoma State +158
After opening up as a short two-point favorite in some places, TCU's been bet up to 3.5-point home favorites. Plenty of points are expected in what should be a classic Big 12 offensive explosion with the over/under sitting at 68.5 total points.
Three trends to know
— Oklahoma State has continued to overperform relative to the betting markets, sporting a 13-3 ATS mark dating back to last season. The Cowboys did fail to cover the spread last week as 11-point favorites against Texas Tech but entered Week 6 covering in three straight contests.
— Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs were clearly undervalued in the betting markets to begin the season, as they've gone 4-0-1 ATS this season. TCU failed to cover the spread last week in Lawrence as 7.5-point favorites but did open as 4-point road chalk, so bettors who got ahead of the market cashed their tickets while others who were late to the party ripped theirs up.
— According to BetQL, "Neither team has shown much defensive prowess this year, which is why both have hit the over in three straight games and combined to go 7-3 O/U. It’s also worth noting that the home team has won the last four games in this series with three of the four games being decided by a touchdown or less. "
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Three things to watch
—Can Oklahoma State slow down Quentin Johnston?: Johnston put the college football world on notice this past week after his monster performance significantly elevated his NFL draft status. Oklahoma State's defense has shown some vulnerability this season, allowing opponents to be successful through the air. Will it be able to limit Johnston's playmaking ability?
—Will Max Duggan keep up his elite play?: After losing the starting QB job to Chandler Morris in the preseason and regaining QB1 status after Morris' Week 1 injury, Duggan's consistent play is a massive reason why the Horned Frogs are in the position they're in. Duggan's versatility in the passing (1,305 passing yards) and rushing game (204 rushing yards) forces defenses to consistently be on their heels. A performance in which Duggan continues to avoid turning the football over (14:1 TD-to-INT rate) can result in the Horned Frogs getting to 6-0.
—Third-down defense: Oklahoma State leads the Big 12 in third-down defense, as opponents are converting first downs on just 27.5 percent of their third-down attempts (22-of-80). Conversely, TCU has converted on 29-of-59 third downs (18th nationally), so something has to give. There's a good chance a crucial third-down stop or conversion is the difference in this one.
TCU vs. Oklahoma State prediction
The betting market thought the opening line of TCU -2 was a bit short, which is a fair assessment of how this game could potentially finish. Both offenses should do their thing, but there's still a good amount of variance in this game's outcome. With that being said, it's hard not to lean toward taking the field goal and the hook by siding with Oklahoma State. We'll say the Horned Frogs win outright but the Pokes cover the spread.
Prediction: TCU 38, Oklahoma State 35. Oklahoma State (+3.5) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total (68.5).
