Best Oregon-Washington prop bets: Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., more over/under picks for Pac-12 Championship

With a berth to the College Football Playoff more than likely on the line, the third-ranked Washington Huskies battle the fifth-ranked Oregon Ducks in the Pac-12 Championship game at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Friday night (8:00 p.m. ET, ABC).

In one of, if not the game of the year in college football this season, Washington survived with a 36-33 home win over Oregon back in Week 7. Their instant classic featured 956 yards of offense, seven lead changes, and came down to a last-second field goal attempt, which Oregon kicker Camden Lewis missed, preserving the Huskies' undefeated season.

Despite pulling out the three-point home victory, the final score was a bit misleading. The Ducks actually outgained the Huskies 541-415, but they turned the ball over twice on downs inside the Washington 10-yard line. With the box score indicating the Ducks were the beneficiaries of some bad variance, the betting market has priced the Ducks as fairly significant 9.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook, with their -360 moneyline price translating to an implied win probability of 78.26 percent.

Will the Huskies prove the betting market wrong, maintaining their undefeated record en route to their second-ever CFP appearance, or will the Ducks continue to stomp their opponents, avenging their devastating last-second loss?

Rather than dissecting the sharp side and total markets for Friday night's bout in the desert, we have sifted through the current player prop market on FanDuel Sportsbook and pinpointed five of our favorite props to consider for the Pac-12 Championship.

Best Oregon-Washington Pac-12 Championship prop bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Bo Nix, QB, Oregon  — OVER 2.5 passing TDs (-132)

While Nix went UNDER 2.5 passing TDs in the Ducks' heartbreaking Week 7 loss, we think the Heisman favorite will go OVER this number on Friday night. If Oregon had not failed to convert two fourth-and-shorts in Washington territory, Nix could have easily thrown for three TDs. With Oregon's team total sitting at 38.5 points, the Ducks are expected to generate their fair share of scoring drives against a Washington defense that ranks outside the top 50 in expected points added per play (0.026 EPA).

Nix has eclipsed this number in three of his past four games, and with the Ducks looking to make a statement to rectify their midseason loss, we expect Nix to put on a show to solidify his place atop the Heisman race.

Oregon proved it could consistently move the chains against Washington in Week 7, totaling seven more first downs (31-24) while outgaining UW 541-415, so a 40-point showing is well within reach for the nation's second-best scoring offense.

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington  — OVER 300.5 passing yards (-114)

Although we ultimately expect the Ducks to reign supreme on Friday night, a potential negative game script puts Penix Jr. in a position to go OVER his passing yardage prop. Tough weather conditions have played a role in Penix Jr. going UNDER 300.5 passing yards in his past two games (183 passing yards per game), but inside the climate-controlled Allegiant Stadium, he won't have to deal with rain and wind.

Considering the Huskies sit as near double-digit underdogs, they'll likely have to lean on the passing game to stay within striking distance. That could mean we see Penix Jr. attempt 35-plus passes, which bodes well for his OVER backers. In the seven games in which Penix Jr. has thrown it 35-plus times, he's gone OVER 300.5 passing yards six times.

Bucky Irving, RB, Oregon  — OVER 90.5 rushing yards (-114)

Irving is among the most efficient RBs in the country, averaging 6.44 yards per rush (11th in D1), and his home-run capabilities make him a strong bet to reach 91-plus rushing yards. Irving gave the Huskies fits in their lone meeting this season, totaling 127 rushing yards on 22 carries, and another high-volume workload in a positive game script boosts his chances of reaching the century mark.

Dillon Johnson, RB, Washington — UNDER 83.5 rushing yards (-114)

Conversely, since we expect Washington to air the football out at a high clip, we think it will result in their RB1 falling short of his rushing yardage prop. The Huskies haven't really been in any negative game scripts in Pac-12 play, resulting in Johnson going OVER 83.5 rushing yards in six of nine conference games, which includes a 20-carry, 100-yard performance against Oregon.

Despite his season-long numbers indicating his 83.5-yard total might be short, we could see the Huskies shy away from the ground game against a Ducks defense that ranks 15th in EPA/rush (-0.175 EPA).

Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, Washington — OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-114)

Coinciding with Penix Jr. eclipsing his passing yardage prop, it could also lead to UW's second-leading receiver totaling 65-plus receiving yards. Polk's respectable 14.4 aDOT and 2.42 yards per route run numbers showcase his big-play abilities, as it may only take four receptions, a number Polk has totaled in all but one game this season, to reach this number.