Five things to watch: Don't start thinking LSU upset vs. Ole Miss

Matt Hayes

Five things to watch: Don't start thinking LSU upset vs. Ole Miss image

1. The New LSU

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the power of the SEC: LSU is elite once again.

All it took was a victory over the worst Florida team in three decades — and that’s saying a lot considering last year’s Gators effort — and a victory over annual SEC tomato can Kentucky.

Now LSU, magically, will give new SEC power Ole Miss all it can handle Saturday in Baton Rouge because these truths are self-evident.

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Why, you ask? Because LSU is LSU — only they’re not. Not even close.

“We recognize that we have a talented team,” said LSU coach Les Miles. “We all kind of suspected that, and now we’re looking forward to playing the best against some of our best opponents.”

It’s at this point where I remind you that two weeks ago Florida would have beaten LSU had a tight end not dropped a touchdown pass — with both hands on the ball, standing alone in the end zone.

The same Florida that one week later couldn’t move the ball on Missouri to save its very SEC life (not to mention coach Will Muschamp’s job). And this LSU team is going to suddenly find it against that nasty Ole Miss defense?

This LSU team, whose quarterbacks Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris still are woefully inconsistent and leave the Tigers in predictable down-and-distance situations. This LSU team that earlier this month scored all of seven points in a blowout loss to Auburn — and trust me when I say that Auburn defense isn’t close to what the Tigers will see when Ole Miss arrives.

Quarterbacks aren’t the only issue at LSU, and anyone who watched either the Mississippi State or Auburn games sees the bigger picture. The Tigers aren’t nearly the same team of years past that dominated defensively.

They struggle in coverage in the secondary, and can’t rush the passer (an obvious connection), and eventually the run defense wears out. Add to that, Jennings and Harris putting the defense in difficult situations by defending short fields, and you see why it looked so bad against Mississippi State and Auburn — and why it looked much better against two teams (Florida and Kentucky) who couldn’t press the Tigers’ defense.

Don’t let that false hope lead to false narrative.  

2. Scarlet Letter

Here’s the problem with the Ohio State season to date: Virginia Tech just lost at home by 24 points to a decent Miami team.

The same Virginia Tech team that went into Ohio Stadium last month and beat the Buckeyes.

Before we go further, we can clearly see the progression of the Ohio State offense and how much better QB J.T. Barrett has played from that first big game (or what we thought was a big game) against Virginia Tech. He’s more confident, more polished, more poised in the pocket.

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He has a huge career in front of him, one that will eventually force both coach Urban Meyer and Braxton Miller into significant career-defining decisions.

Unfortunately for Ohio State, there’s another side to the story. The five games the Buckeyes have played (and won) outside of VaTech?

Navy, Kent State, Cincinnati, Maryland and Rutgers.

All together now: woof!

So this weekend rolls around, and Penn State is holding its annual white-out game and the Lions have had two weeks to prepare and some in the Big Ten are calling this a “big” game.

So let me show you “big”:

— Penn State has 64 scholarship players available to play.

— Of the 64 available for the game, 31 are freshmen (24) or redshirt freshmen (7), and 46 (a whopping 72 percent) are underclassmen (freshmen and sophomores).

Penn State has a long way to go to crawl out of NCAA sanctions; it’s going to take James Franklin more than one recruiting class and one half season.

If that doesn’t give you pause about the Buckeyes, maybe next week’s game against Big Ten cupcake Illinois will.

It’s a long way until a Nov. 8 game at Michigan State. Let’s not get too excited about the Buckeyes just yet.

3. To start or not to start

Mike Berkovici has given coach Todd Graham something to think about at quarterback for ASU. (Getty Images)

Todd Graham says this is the week Taylor Kelly will return to the lineup for Arizona State.

Now, what to do about backup Mike Bercovici?

The Sun Devils haven’t hit the national radar just yet, and much of that can be attributed to their only loss (a 62-27 blowout to UCLA), which just happened to be Bercovici’s first start for an injured Kelly (foot).

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But ASU clearly is hitting its stride behind a backup quarterback, and has a critical stretch of games beginning Saturday at Washington that will dictate the Pac-12 South Division race and maybe much more.

Bercovici threw two interceptions in the loss to UCLA, and has since thrown 118 passes without a pick. More important, he has led the Sun Devils to back-to-back wins against ranked teams (USC, Stanford) by throwing for 755 yards and six touchdowns.

Before Kelly’s injury, he was a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate; an elite quarterback who thrived in Graham’s quarterback-friendly offense. Graham says Kelly is his quarterback; that’s not in question.

But we’ve hit the crossroads of an intersection no coach — no matter what they say — wants to see: play the starting quarterback, or play the backup who has played better in his absence?

Much of that will be determined by how well Kelly moves against Washington’s stout pass rush. If the foot injury is affecting his ability to avoid the rush, you better believe Bercovici will play.     

4. Road Bullies          

It’s inconceivable that Mississippi State could travel to Lexington, Ky., and lose on the road in a game that looks so meaningless yet means so much.

But understand this: every week is something new for the Bulldogs; every game an adventure with the newness of being the hunted.

Just because you’re winning big games (or what we thought were big games; hello, LSU and Texas A&M) doesn’t mean the gimme putts are any easier.

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One big advantage for Mississippi State: the bye week. Seriously.

Had the Bulldogs gone straight from an emotional victory over Auburn into the Kentucky game, it could have been a natural, disastrous letdown. That week off sets up perfectly for State, which can refocus knowing the next three games (UK, Arkansas, Tennessee-Martin) set up a huge game against Alabama.

It still won’t be pretty Saturday; it rarely is when new powers play road games they should win. But Mississippi State’s defense — underrated and overlooked amid Dak Prescott’s shadow — will secure this game.

5. Kiffin’s return

Apparently Tennessee fans aren’t happy with Lane Kiffin. I’m still trying to figure out why.

There are a few ways to look at this thing as Kiffin, Alabama’s offensive coordinator, heads back to Knoxville for the first time since resigning his job as head coach of the Vols in January 2010 to take the USC job.

You can be mad that Kiffin beat Georgia and South Carolina in his first season and led the Vols to a bowl game (remember those, Vols fans?). You can be mad that Kiffin had a top 10 recruiting class in his first season, and was working on a No. 1 overall recruiting class in his second.

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You can be mad that he left Tennessee for his dream job of USC, and actually tried to have a going-away press conference (no coach does that, ever) to explain himself — before said conference blew up in his face.

But if you’re mad because, well, everyone gets mad at Lane Kiffin, it’s time to move on. Besides, given Kifin’s track record, it was bound to get ugly at some point in Knoxville.

It just happened a few years early. Not that Tennessee isn’t used to that now, anyway.

Matt Hayes