Will No. 6 Ohio State walk through the back door to the College Football Playoff again?
That might seem like a long-shot given the Buckeyes are coming off a disappointing 30-24 loss to No. 2 Michigan in the regular-season finale. While Ohio State will not be playing for a Big Ten championship, this team has a history of making into the playoff on the final weekend.
In 2014, Ohio State moved up from the No. 5 spot after beating Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big Ten championship, which left Big 12 co-champions TCU and Baylor out of the CFP.
In 2016, the Buckeyes slipped from No. 2 to No. 3 but stayed in the CFP despite not playing in the Big Ten championship game.
Last season, Ohio State was ranked No. 5 after a loss to Michigan in the regular-season finale. No. 4 USC lost the Pac-12 championship game, however, and that opened the back door again.
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Can Ohio State still make College Football Playoff?
The Buckeyes were one of eight Power 5 teams with one loss or less heading into conference championship weekend, but they are the only team not playing.
No. 3 Washington beat No. 5 Oregon 34-31 in the Pac-12 championship on Friday. Keep in mind no two-loss team has ever made the four-team College Football Playoff. Here is a look at those teams:
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD |
| 1 | Georgia | 12-0 |
| 2 | Michigan | 12-0 |
| 3 | Washington | 13-0 |
| 4 | Florida State | 12-0 |
| 5 | Oregon | 11-2 |
| 6 | Ohio State | 11-1 |
| 7 | Texas | 11-1 |
| 8 | Alabama | 11-1 |
Ohio State needs a very specific scenario to unfold in those five conference championship games.
Washington beats Oregon in Pac-12 championship
This happened. This was the most-important game for Ohio State last year. It’s probably the least important piece this time because both Pac-12 teams are already ranked ahead of Ohio State. That knocked the Ducks into the two-loss pool and took a potential Washington-Ohio State one-loss debate off the table.
Oklahoma State beats Texas in Big 12 championship
This is the toughest piece knowing the Longhorns are 14-point favorites against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship. The Buckeyes might be ranked ahead of Texas now, but the Longhorns will leap-frog Ohio State with a victory.
Georgia beats Alabama in SEC championship
This eliminates Alabama from playoff contention with a second loss. It also would potentially set up a CFP semifinal rematch between the Bulldogs and Buckeyes. If Georgia loses, then the two SEC-team argument becomes more viable then the two Big Ten-team argument.
Michigan beats Iowa in Big Ten championship
This would be a bit of a plug-your-nose moment for Ohio State, but it’s better if the Wolverines win. Even if somehow was upset by the Hawkeyes, Michigan would likely still be ranked ahead of Ohio State because of the head-to-head victory, which the committee typically values. The Buckeyes are not going to jump the Wolverines in the rankings anyway.
Louisville beats Florida State in ACC championship
This knocks the unbeaten Seminoles out of the playoff picture and means a two-loss Louisville team wins the conference.
MORE: Bowl projections | Championship games picks
Ohio State's College Football Playoff scenario
If all five of those things happen, then here is what the potential top 10 in the final College Football Playoff rankings would look like:
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD |
| 1 | Georgia | 13-0 |
| 2 | Michigan | 13-0 |
| 3 | Washington | 13-0 |
| 4 | Ohio State | 11-1 |
| 5 | Oregon | 11-2 |
| 6 | Texas | 11-2 |
| 7 | Alabama | 11-2 |
| 8 | Louisville | 11-2 |
| 9 | Florida State | 12-1 |
| 10 | Penn State | 10-2 |
This is the best-case scenario for the Buckeyes getting in the CFP. No two-loss teams get in, and Ohio State has a top-10 victory against Penn State in hand. The Michigan loss would be forgiven, and the playoff matchups would be outstanding.
Ohio State strength of schedule
According to ESPN, the Buckeyes still rank No. 1 in the Football Power Index despite the loss to the Wolverines. The Buckeyes also have the sixth-best strength of schedule. Ohio State beat No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 7 Penn State during the regular season and had a chance to take the lead on the final drive against No. 2 Michigan.
Ohio State strength of record
According to ESPN, the Buckeyes rank No. 5 in strength of record behind Michigan, Washington, Florida State and Georgia.
Will Ohio State make College Football Playoff?
If the above scenario unfolds in that order, then the ESPN Playoff Predictor gives the Buckeyes an 83% chance of getting in.
Ryan Day would bring a dangerous team to that round if this scenario unfolds. If Texas or Florida State wins, however, then the Buckeyes likely will end up in the Orange Bowl. Ohio State is the only school to make the CFP on two occasions without winning a conference championship. The scenario – while unlikely – is not impossible.
