Ohio State suffered a debilitating blow to its hopes of making the College Football Playoff in Week 13. Debilitating, but not fatal.
The Buckeyes no longer control their Playoff destiny and won't be able to compete for a Big Ten championship after falling 45-23 at home to No. 2 Michigan. But that loss, even so late in the season, doesn't preclude Ohio State from competing in the CFP — just from controlling its destiny.
The Buckeyes have a clear path into the playoff without the need to play during conference championship week. That path was made easier to traverse on Tuesday with the penultimate CFP top 25 rankings, which saw the committee rank them fifth overall.
If you're not going to be among the top four teams heading into the final week of play, then No. 5 is a good spot to be. Ohio State stands to be among the final four teams in, but it does need some help during conference championship weekend.
MORE: College Football Playoff rankings: Who are the top four teams in fifth CFP poll of 2022?
With that, The Sporting News looks at how the Buckeyes can still get into the Playoff:
Can Ohio State still make College Football Playoff?
Yes, Ohio State can still make the Playoff. Indeed, ESPN listed the Buckeyes as having a 71.5 percent chance of being one of the four teams in, without even playing during conference championship weekend, ahead of this weekend's games.
While the Buckeyes don't have control over what happens this weekend, their hopes for one of the top-four teams to lose in conference championship games already have come true, and that will likely be enough to catapult the Buckeyes into Playoff contention.
USC loss to Utah
USC was No. 4 in the penultimate rankings with an 11-1 record and needed to beat No. 11 Utah in the Pac-12 title game to become the first team from the conference since Washington in 2016 to make the Playoff.
For the second time this season, though, the Trojans fell short against the Utes, this time in a 47-24 blowout Friday night as USC's porous defense let it down. The Utes' second straight Pac-12 title torpedoed the conference's Playoff hopes while opening the door for the eternal rival Big Ten to land two teams in the final four.
TCU loss to Kansas State
TCU came in at No. 3 in the Week 14 College Football Playoff rankings, giving the Horned Frogs a hair's breadth more breathing room than the team behind them. That said, Sonny Dykes' team has long been considered among the "weakest" Playoff-caliber teams this season, and the general thought was that the Horned Frogs could only make it in with an undefeated record and Big 12 championship in tow.
The last hurdle for the team to clear before officially making it to the Playoff was No. 10 Kansas State, which secured its berth in the Big 12 title game with a 47-27 victory over rival Kansas on Saturday. The Wildcats got revenge for their 38-28 regular-season loss, upending the Horned Frogs 31-28 in overtime.
With losses by both USC and TCU, Ohio State will almost definitely make the Playoff. The question now is where Ohio State will rank. If TCU makes it in despite the loss, then it's likely the committee keeps the Horned Frogs at No. 3 and moves Ohio State to No. 4 to avoid a Buckeyes rematch with Michigan.
That's less likely if TCU falls out of the top four, considering that means Alabama would jump two spots, while idle, an Ohio State team that ranked ahead of the Crimson Tide in Week 14.
BENDER: What USC's loss to Utah means for Ohio State, Alabama
Ohio State strength of schedule
Thanks to the USC loss, Ohio State should be able to lay claim to a Playoff spot. But there also exists the potential that the committee won't want to punish the Trojans for losing on conference championship weekend when Ohio State isn't even playing.
To that end, the Buckeyes have what ESPN ranks as the 34th-toughest strength of schedule, one spot ahead of TCU at 35th and 23 spots ahead of USC at 57th. Moreover, the Buckeyes have a ranked victory over Notre Dame on their schedule (the same as USC).
Ohio State strength of record
Likewise, Ohio State has a significant strength of record, coming in at No. 4 overall despite the one loss to Michigan. That said, TCU's strength of record comes in at No. 1, while USC's is sixth.
All told, it seems as if Ohio State's best bet to make the Playoff was with a USC loss, as opposed to a TCU one.
Ohio State ranks ahead of the Trojans in several key metrics, and a loss by USC not only eliminates the teams' common opponent argument (USC won 38-27 vs. the Fighting Irish, who lost 21-10 to Ohio State) but drops the Trojans to two losses.
