Ohio State isn't one of those places where the phrase "national championship or bust" typically applies.
The Buckeyes are in the national championship hunt every season. They have had one losing season in the 21st century. Yet 2024 is starting to feel like one of those seasons given the offseason put together by the program after a third consecutive loss to Michigan and a dismal performance in the Cotton Bowl Classic loss to Missouri.
Ohio State might be ranked No. 1 in the preseason – and that is going to put that pressure on Ryan Day to deliver a national championship. Give Day credit. This won't be the same-old look. The Buckeyes will have a new quarterback and offensive coordinator on the field and a new athletic director off the field. The Buckeyes made significant changes in order to go get that national championship back in Columbus.
Day seemingly answered the five biggest questions heading into 2024 in rapid succession:
What does Caleb Downs add to Ohio State's defense?
The Buckeyes added Caleb Downs – who had 107 tackles, four forced fumbles and two interceptions for Alabama as a freshman. Downs was considered the best player in the transfer portal, and he chose Ohio State over the Buckeyes.
This is the ultimate get for third-year defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, whose intricate defense is made even better with elite safety play. Knowles' best defense at Oklahoma State in 2021 featured a pair of impact safeties in Tanner McCallister and Kolby Harvell-Peel. They combined for four interceptions and 5.5 tackles for loss.
Now, Knowles has Downs – an every-down player who can play multiple positions. That also will allow for creativity with safety Sonny Styles – who had 53 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and two sacks. Knowles can put Styles closer to the line of scrimmage, and Downs is free to roam in the back end. That will allow Knowles to be creative – and that will be dangerous for opponents.
Will Bill O'Brien and Ryan Day mesh?
This is a bold hire because it means Day won't be calling plays this season – a duty he would not relinquish since taking over as head coach in 2019.
How will the offensive play-calling duties shake out? O'Brien has been an offensive coordinator on two separate occasions for Bill Belichick in New England and was Alabama's offensive coordinator in 2021 and 2022. Alabama averaged 39.6 points per game in 2021 – when Bryce Young won the Heisman Trophy – and 41.6 points per game the following season. Those are impressive credentials – and they also are an indication that O'Brien did not come to Ohio State to be a back-seat play-caller to Day.
Where does that leave current offensive coordinator Brian Hartline? There is no question Hartline is one of the best recruiters in the country. He has assembled one of the best receiver-to-the-NFL pipelines ever since taking over that position group in 2018, but he was not the play-caller as the offensive coordinator last season.
That relationship between these three coaches is worth watching. Remember when Jimbo Fisher hired Bobby Petrino last offseason at Texas A&M? This hire has that kind of magnitude. Fisher is out of a job and Petrino is the offensive coordinator at Arkansas now.
How will Will Howard, Quinshon Judkins change the offense?
Look for Ohio State to revert back to being a 60/40 offense.
What does that mean? Look at how the run-pass ratio has declined from Day's first two seasons at Ohio State to the present day.
Ohio State Run/Pass ratio under Ryan Day
| YEAR | RUSH ATT | YARDS | PASS ATT | YARDS | RUN/PASS |
| 2019 | 663 | 3,735 | 406 | 3,684 | 62:38 |
| 2020 | 345 | 2,055 | 225 | 2,100 | 61:39 |
| 2021 | 423 | 4,952 | 494 | 2,344 | 46:54 |
| 2022 | 466 | 2,501 | 410 | 3,878 | 53:47 |
| 2023 | 431 | 1,805 | 400 | 3,498 | 52:48 |
Ohio State has gone away from the running game too much. Now, one could argue when you have first-round quarterbacks like C.J. Stroud and receivers such as Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. that you have to air it out.
Yet Fields was the quarterback in 2019 and 2020. It's OK to keep the running game going at a 60/40 clip. Howard – a Kansas State transfer – played in an offense that had a 56:44 run/pass ratio last season. He had 81 rushing attempts last season. Howard can be efficient in the passing game with that talent at receiver – which includes Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate and more up-and-coming five-star talent.
Yet this offense should run through Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Judkins averaged 1,365 rushing yards and 15 TDs on 5.0 yards per carry the last two seasons at Ole Miss. Henderson averages 6.2 yards per carry for his career with the Buckeyes. There is no reason not to lean into what should be a dominant running game. Of course, the offensive line has to be better this season in order for that to happen.
Look for O'Brien to manage that challenge well for the Buckeyes.
MORE: Can Kalen DeBoer keep Alabama as a top 5 program?
Will Ohio State have the best defense in the FBS?
Yes, and the addition of Downs will only help. Ohio State (11.2 ppg.) had the second-best scoring defense in the FBS behind Michigan (10.4 ppg.) this season. Several key pieces turned down the NFL to return to school.
Defensive tackle Tyliek Williams and edge rushers J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer are back. Those three combined for 14.5 sacks and 27 tackles for loss. Cornerback Denzel Burke and defensive tackle Ty Hamilton also stayed for another year.
The Buckeyes essentially could be a carbon copy of what Michigan was this season – a veteran group that carries the team to a national championship. Knowles did his best work at Oklahoma State in his third and fourth year with the program. Look for this unit to be even better.
How does new AD Ross Bjork change the dynamic at Ohio State?
Bjork is going to enhance Ohio State's NIL game. He was at Texas A&M when the 12th Man Foundation – an independent fundraising arm of the athletic department to help facilitate NIL deals – was formed. Bjork likely will continue to push Ohio State in that space, and his background at two SEC institutions – he was the AD at Ole Miss from 2012-19 – means he will be instrumental in keeping Ohio State up on the external factors that make recruiting more difficult in the NIL and transfer portal era.
Bjork also gave Fisher an extension worth $9 million per season at Texas A&M before firing him this season. Bjork was hired a year after Fisher. So, at least in the short term, Bjork's presence does not affect Day that much yet.
Still, Ole Miss had two coaches under Bjork in Hugh Freeze and Matt Luke. Bjork hired Mike Elko this season at Texas A&M after reportedly nearly hiring Mark Stoops. The combined record of those two teams under Bjork's watch was 91-69. Ohio State is 139-17 in the same stretch.
This is a huge step up for Bjork, too.
Will Ohio State beat Michigan in 2024?
It's not "national championship or bust." The 12-team College Football Playoff creates some new variables where it will be more difficult to win three to four CFP games.
That said, the Buckeyes cannot lose a fourth straight game to Michigan. That has not happened since a brutal stretch from 1988-91 under John Cooper. The Buckeyes were 27-18-2 in that four-year stretch.
Day is 56-8 and has never lost more than two games in a single season. The Cooper comparisons are silly, to be honest, but the Wolverines have taken control of The Game and are coming off their first national championship season since 1997.
Ohio State has road games at Oregon (Oct. 12) and Penn State (Nov. 2) next season, but no game looms larger than Michigan on Nov. 30. The Wolverines will have heavy losses to the 2024 NFL Draft, and Jim Harbaugh might be headed to the NFL. This is not a game that Day can lose and not feel a significant impact for the following season given all the changes made in Columbus.
