No. 13 Notre Dame and Navy open the 2023 college football season at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland, on Saturday.
Game time is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET. The matchup will be televised on NBC and is available for streaming on Peacock.
Notre Dame finished 9-4 in 2022, and second-year coach Marcus Freeman battled through a 0-2 start to have a successful season. This will be the debut for Wake Forest transfer quarterback Sam Hartman, whose arrival has created excitement in South Bend. Offensive coordinator Gerad Parker replaced Tommy Rees, who took the same position at Alabama. Tackle Joe Alt and cornerback back Benjamin Morrison made Sporting News' Preseason All-American team.
Navy finished 4-8 last season and let go of longtime coach Ken Niumatalolo, who was the head coach for 15 seasons. Brian Newberry – the Midshipmen's defensive coordinator the last four seasons – takes over. Tai Lavatai and Blake Horvath will see time at quarterback. Leading rusher Daba Fofana returns, and the defense returns a few top playmakers in defensive end Jacob Busic and linebacker Colin Ramos.
This should be a fun opener for the 2023 season. Here's everything to know about betting on the Week 0 opener between the Irish and Midshipmen:
Notre Dame vs. Navy odds
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Here are the odds for Saturday's game between Notre Dame and Navy. Odds are courtesy of BetMGM.com.
- Spread: Notre Dame -20.5
- Over/under: 50.5
- Moneyline: Notre Dame -1400, Navy +800
Notre Dame beat Navy 35-32 last season, but the Irish were a 17-point favorite in that game. The spread has not moved much off its open – meaning the Irish are going to have to win by three touchdowns for bettors to cover.
Three trends to know
— The Irish were 6-2 S/U as a favorite last year, but that included a 3-5 ATS record. Notre Dame did cover the spread in four of their last six games.
— Navy was 3-6 S/U as an underdog, but they were 7-2 ATS in that role. The Midshipmen were 6-0 ATS when they were underdogs of 10 points or more last season.
— Notre Dame has won the last five meetings in the series by an average of 18.2 points per game. The Irish and Midshipmen have played in Dublin twice. Notre Dame beat Navy 54-27 on Nov. 2, 1996 and 50-10 on Sept. 1, 2012.
Three things to watch
Sam Hartman's debut at Notre Dame
This is the main attraction for the Irish in 2023. Will Hartman be able to push Notre Dame's passing attack down the field? According to Pro Football Focus, Hartman was 41 of 93 (44.1%) for 1,304 yards, 16 TDs and six interceptions on passes of 20 yards or more last season. Drew Pyne was good on the deep ball last year at 19 of 36 (52.8%), 10 TDs and zero interceptions. Will Parker take more chances in the passing game with Hartman? Jayden Thomas – who had 361 yards and three TDs last season – is the Irish's top receiver. How much will freshman Jaden Greathouse and Rico Flores Jr. be involved?
Notre Dame's running game
The Irish struggled to run the football in this matchup last year. Notre Dame had 34 carries for 66 yards, though Audric Estime had eight carries for 49 yards and a TD. Expect the Irish to utilize Estime early before a committee approach with the rest of the running backs. It will be interesting to see how many carries Penn State transfer Devyn Ford gets in the mix. Chris Tyree – a converted receiver – also should get enough touches to make plays in space. If Notre Dame gets that running game early, then Navy could be in trouble.
Who commits turnovers?
Navy's option attack isn't a secret. The Irish see it every year, and it rolled up 255 yards in last year's game. The Midshipmen stayed in the game because they committed just one turnover and had just four penalties for 30 yards. Time of possession will be even in this game – even if it doesn't seem like it. Lavatai and Horvath must limit the turnovers on those possessions to keep Navy in the game. The Midshipmen lost to Houston and Memphis by an average of 21 points per game last season. They had a combined total of five turnovers in those games. If Notre Dame forces two or three turnovers, it will cover.
Stat that matters
Hartman averaged 8.6 yards per attempt last season. Pyne was at 8.0 and Alabama transfer Tyler Buchner averaged 7.8 for Notre Dame, which is solid. But the elite quarterbacks in college football last season averaged 9.0 yards per attempt or more. Florida State's Jordan Travis (9.1) and USC's Caleb Williams (9.0) were among that group. How will the transition from Wake Forest to Notre Dame impact this number for Hartman? It's something to monitor in the games leading up to the Sept. 23 showdown against No. 3 Ohio State.
Notre Dame vs. Navy prediction
We mentioned those past trips to Ireland. Those games have brought out the best in the Irish, and this one should be no exception. While Hartman will be the focus, the big plays in the running game will be the story early on. That will press Navy, not to mention that a senior-laden defense will have its second look at the Midshipmen with defensive coordinator Al Golden. Notre Dame does force two turnovers and Hartman throws three TDs – including one to Greathouse – an exciting freshman who will continue to be a difference-maker. It's tight, but we're going against the trend thinking the Irish will cover that large spread.
Final score: Notre Dame 38, Navy 17
