Notre Dame faces off against No. 16 BYU on Saturday night at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas (7:30 p.m. ET on NBC) in the 2022 edition of the Shamrock Series. Notre Dame looks for their third-straight victory after starting the season 0-2, while BYU attempts to get to 5-1 on the season and defeat Notre Dame for the first time since '04.
Notre Dame enters Week 6 after its bye week, but before that, it notched a 45-32 road win over North Carolina. In the win, the Fighting Irish shredded a lackluster Tar Heel defense to the tune of 576 total yards (289 passing, 287 rushing). Backup QB Drew Pyne, who's filling in for the injured Tyler Buchner, completed 24-of-34 passes for 289 yards and three TDs in a confidence-boosting performance.
BYU comes into Week 6 off a 38-26 home win over Wyoming, failing to cover the spread as 26-point favorites. The Cougars were once again led by QB Jaren Hall, who threw for 274 yards and three TDs on 17-of-27 passing. In what will be a much more competitive game this weekend, can the Cougars out-physical Notre Dame en route to a win in Sin City?
MORE COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING: Week 6 ATS Picks
Here's everything to know about betting on the Week 6 matchup between the Cougars and Fighting Irish:
Notre Dame vs. BYU odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
- Spread: Notre Dame -4
- Over/Under: 51
- Moneyline: Notre Dame -190; BYU +158
After opening up as a short -1 point favorite in some places, Notre Dame's been bet up to 3.5-point favorites in their neutral site contest. The over/under hasn't seen much movement, hovering around 52 points.
Three trends to know
— Notre Dame has won four of the past five meetings against BYU, most recently defeating the Cougars 23-13 back in 2013.
— BYU is 2-6 ATS in its past eight games, failing to cover the spread in three straight games (favored in all three).
— According to BetQL, "BYU has scored at least 38 points in three of five games this year, although the Cougars have yet to concede fewer than 20 points in a game, which is a big reason why they are 4-1 O/U this year."
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Three things to watch
— Drew Pyne's intermediate-to-deep passing: Pyne's been an effective passer through his first two starts of 2022, completing close to 70 percent of his passes for 459 yards with an impressive 159.3 passer rating. While those stats look good on the surface, he hasn't had to push the football downfield. Per PFF, Pyne's completed 26-of-32 short passes (0-9 yards) but is just five-of-14 on passing attempts of 10-plus yards. Taking what the defense gives you is one thing, but eventually, Pyne's going to have to prove he can make plays downfield.
—Notre Dame's pass rush: Through four games, Notre Dame's defense has logged 33 QB hurries. Senior defensive end Isaiah Foskey leads the team with seven of those. BYU's offensive line will face a tough test against a Fighting Irish pass rush that grades out as the 34th best per PFF (75.8). Jaren Hall's struggled under pressure this season, completing 13-of-31 pass attempts with 3.6 yards per attempt and a 52.2 passer rating. If he's consistently under pressure, BYU's offense will have trouble moving the ball consistently.
—Red-zone defense: As the case in most games, whichever team can limit their opposition to field goals rather than touchdowns in the red zone is going to have the upper hand. BYU's allowed the sixth-most red zone trips to opponents (24), with 15 of those trips resulting in TDs and five ending in field goals. While Notre Dame's opponents have scored on 100 percent of their red-zone trips, the Fighting Irish have allowed just 12 red-zone trips through four games.
Notre Dame vs. BYU prediction
It's not too surprising to see Notre Dame listed as north of a field goal favorite despite BYU being ranked 16th in the AP Top 25. Both teams have underperformed relative to the betting markets to begin the season, and despite a 4-1 record, BYU is just 2-3 ATS. Notre Dame's ability to have its way at the line of scrimmage should lead to the Fighting Irish leaving Las Vegas with a much-needed win.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, BYU 21. Notre Dame (-4) covers the spread with the game going UNDER the total (51).
