New Year's Six bowl picks: Close games predicted across the board, including CFP semifinals

Colleen Thomas

New Year's Six bowl picks: Close games predicted across the board, including CFP semifinals image

The bowl games we've all been waiting for are finally here: the New Year's Six bowl games. 

This year's lineup features high-powered matchups, such as the Rose Bowl between the two hottest teams in the country (Penn State and USC) and an undefeated Western Michigan taking on Big Ten West champion Wisconsin.

The New Year's Six slate kicks off Friday, Dec. 30 with the Orange Bowl and ends with a full day of games on Monday, Jan. 2.

MORE: College football bowl schedule 2016-17

Sporting News staffers Bill Bender, Colleen Thomas and Zac Al-Khateeb take a shot at picking all six games, including the two College Football Playoff semifinals:

Orange Bowl: No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 Florida State

When: Friday, Dec. 30, 8 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Bender: No. 6 Michigan 30, No. 11 Florida State 28

Dalvin Cook will go up against a Michigan defense that allowed just seven rushing TDs this season, and there are All-American and NFL Draft prospects all over the place. This is the best game outside the playoff, and it will play out that way. 

Thomas: No. 6 Michigan 35, No. 11 Florida State 25

The matchup to watch here is Florida State's secondary vs. a talented, experienced Michigan receiving corps. The Seminoles give up 225.9 pass yards per game and have seen quarterbacks like Chad Kelly, Lamar Jackson and Mitch Trubisky put up big numbers. Michigan QB Wilton Speight can hit the deep ball, and if he's healthy, Florida State's secondary will be in for a long day.

Al-Khateeb: No. 6 Michigan 31, No. 11 Florida State 21

Michigan is likely in a bad mood after the controversial way in which The Game ended, so expect Jim Harbaugh’s team to come out swinging. Florida State has the talent — and more importantly, the speed — to match with Michigan, but the Wolverines’ second-ranked defense should cause FSU freshman quarterback Deondre Francois to make one too many mistakes.

Cotton Bowl: No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 15 Western Michigan

When: Monday, Jan. 2, 1 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Bender: No. 8 Wisconsin 31, No. 15 Western Michigan 19

Western Michigan’s P.J. Fleck will lead the undefeated Broncos against their fifth Big Ten team in two seasons, and it should be fun to watch Zach Terrell and Corey Davis attack that Wisconsin secondary. Can Western Michigan’s defense get enough stops to make it interesting? 

Thomas: No. 8 Wisconsin 24, No. 15 Western Michigan 21

Wisconsin's defense will pose a tough test for Zach Terrell and Western Michigan's explosive receivers, but the Broncos will find a way to keep it close. Badgers running back Corey Clement will make a couple big plays down the stretch to give Wisconsin the win.

Al-Khateeb: No. 8 Wisconsin 30, No. 15 Western Michigan 17

The key for Western Michigan in this game is to not realize how huge this matchup is. If the Broncos let this moment get too big instead of viewing Wisconsin as just another opponent, it could spell disaster P.J. Fleck and Co. The Broncos can score on offense, but this Badgers defense (303 yards, 15.5 points per game) will be Western Michigan’s biggest challenge this season — one that will be difficult to overcome.

Rose Bowl: No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 9 USC

When: Monday, Jan. 2, 5 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Bender: No. 9 USC 34, No. 5 Penn State 31 

USC’s Sam Darnold and Penn State’s Trace McSorley combined for 51 TD passes and just 13 interceptions this season, and that red-hot quarterback play is why both of these teams were playing as well as anybody late in the season. That translates into a wildly entertaining Rose Bowl. 

Thomas: No. 9 USC 42, No. 5 Penn State 35

This'll be a fun one between the two hottest teams in the country and two quarterbacks who could be future Heisman contenders. Sam Darnold vs. Trace McSorely will be a fun matchup to watch, but the game will come down to Nittany Lions running back Saquon Barkely vs. USC's defense. Will Barkley get the ground game going, or will Penn State have to rely on McSorely's arm and take its chances against Adoree' Jackson and the Trojan secondary?

Al-Khateeb: No. 5 Penn State 30, No. 9 USC 28

Penn State and USC have the opportunity to make this one of the most exciting Rose Bowls in recent memory. Sam Darnold has come alive as the Trojans’ quarterback, but can he handle the stage? And how will Penn State’s Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley handle a USC team that ranks in the top 30 in both scoring and total defense?

Sugar Bowl: No. 7 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Auburn

When: Monday, Jan. 2, 8:30 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Bender: No. 7 Oklahoma 33, No. 14 Auburn 27

Here’s another wildly entertaining game. Auburn’s rushing attack and defense can’t be undersold here, but Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield will make enough big plays in the passing game with Dede Westbrook to push the Sooners to Sugar Bolw win. 

Thomas: No. 14 Auburn 28, No. 7 Oklahoma 27

The combo of Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson will be enough for Auburn's offense to squeak by Oklahoma. The Sooners have an equally-powerful duo in Baker Mayfield and Dede Westbrook, but their rush defense is lacking, giving way to a late drive that seals it for the Tigers. 

Al-Khateeb: No. 7 Oklahoma 31, No. 14 Auburn 30

Most will have the Big 12 champs over Auburn in this one, but the Tigers can hurt the Sooners in one key area: rushing. Auburn’s rush offense ranks eighth nationally, while Oklahoma’s rush defense ranks 55th. If Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway (1,985 combined rushing yards) enter the game fully healthy, expect a close game. The Tigers will need it against Oklahoma’s Air Raid offense.

College Football Playoff Semifinals

Peach Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Washington

When: Saturday, Dec. 31, 3 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Bender: No. 1 Alabama 31, No. 4 Washington 17

Yep, that’s closer than expected, but Washington is a talented team with playmakers on the perimeter around a NFL-caliber quarterback in Jake Browning. If the Huskies can establish a ground game early, then they will hang around. Alabama, however, will take control in the second half and push toward another national title.  

Thomas: No. 1 Alabama 38, No. 4 Washington 24

Washington struggled with USC's run defense — the Huskies entered the game averaging 231 yards per game and were held to 17 — and things won't get any easier against the nation's top-ranked squad. That'll force Jake Browning to carry the offense, which will inevitably lead to mistakes — Alabama leads the nation with 10 defensive TDs. The Crimson Tide will have no problem with the Huskies.

Al-Khateeb: No. 1 Alabama 34, No. 4 Washington 20

Alabama boasts the country’s best defense, no question, with a nation-leading 10 defensive touchdowns and SEC-leading 45 sacks. Expect the Tide to get after Washington quarterback Jake Browning, who has struggled as of late under pressure. Still, Washington has a top-10 scoring offense and leads the country with 33 turnovers. The Huskies may add to that total, but it might not be enough.

Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State

When: Saturday, Dec. 31, 7 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Bender: No. 3 Ohio State 28, No. 2 Clemson 24 

Clemson’s Deshaun Watson is the best quarterback the Buckeyes have faced this season, and the Buckeyes are the best defense he’s faced. It’s going to be a back-and-fourth game that comes down to one or two plays in the fourth quarter, and we’re banking on Ohio State’s secondary — which has seven pick sixes this season — to make that play. 

Thomas: No. 2 Clemson 30, No. 3 Ohio State 28

Clemson's struggled with turning the ball over this season — the Tigers have 24 turnovers, 15 of which are Deshaun Watson interceptions — but that doesn't matter on a stage like this. Watson's been here before, and he's proven he can make enough plays to win the game (vs. Louisville, Florida State, Virginia Tech). He's the best player on the field and he'll play like it against a tough Buckeyes squad.

Al-Khateeb: No. 3 Ohio State 38, No. 2 Clemson 35

Clemson has an early advantage in that it has the most talented player on the field in quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Clemson quarterback has come alive as of late after early-season struggles, but still threw 15 interceptions this season. The Buckeyes lead the country with seven interceptions returned for touchdowns this season. In the end, it comes down to which team makes the fewest mistakes.

Colleen Thomas

Colleen Thomas Photo

Colleen Thomas is an Associate Editor at Sporting News. She joined Sporting News in 2014.