No. 10 Penn State takes on No. 5 Michigan in a top-10 Big Ten showdown at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Mich., on Saturday.
Game time is scheduled for 12 p.m. ET, and it will be televised on Fox.
Penn State (5-0) had a bye week to prepare for the matchup at the Big House. Coach James Franklin has guided the program to road victories at Purdue and Auburn, but this is a level up. Sixth-year senior Sean Clifford won his last start at Michigan Stadium in 2020, so experience will not be an issue.
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Michigan (6-0) is coming off back-to-back road victories at Iowa and Indiana. Redshirt freshman J.J. McCarthy has taken control of the quarterback job, and Blake Corum leads the running game. The defense has improved the pass rush over the past two weeks for coach Jim Harbaugh.
Harbaugh is 4-3 head to head against Franklin, and that includes a 2-1 record at Michigan Stadium. This is the first top-10 matchup between the teams since 1997. With that in mind, here is everything you need to know about the matchup between the Wolverines and Nittany Lions:
Michigan vs. Penn State odds
- Spread: Michigan -7
- Over/under: 52
- Moneyline: Michigan -255, Penn State +215 (Caesars Sportsbook)
This line has stuck at -7 despite the fact 70% of the betting money to this point against the spread is in favor of Penn State. The last three meetings between the teams have been decided by an average of seven points, so that makes sense despite the disparity in betting. It's a good line.
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Three trends to know
— The Wolverines are 18-2 S/U since last season, and they are 14-6 ATS in that stretch. Michigan is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games, and the Wolverines are 2-2 ATS at home this season. This is the first home game with a single-digit spread for Michigan in 2022.
— Penn State is 2-0 ATS on the road this season, but it was favored in both games. The Nittany Lions are 6-6 ATS as the road underdog Franklin, but they are just 2-10 S/U in those games.
— Harbaugh and Franklin have both been criticized for their lack of success against top-10 opponents. Harbaugh is 3-14 against top-10 teams since coming to Michigan. Franklin is 2-13 against top-10 teams in his time at Penn State, with last year's 21-17 loss to the Wolverines last season on that list. This is the first top-10 matchup between the schools with these coaches.
Three things to watch
— Sean Clifford's help. The Nittany Lions have a reliable running game led by freshman running backs Nick Singleton (463 yards, 5 TDs) and Kaytron Allen (303 yards, 3 TDs). Keyvonne Lee had 88 yards in last year's game, but Penn State averaged just 2.6 yards per carry. Clifford struggled with Michigan's pass rush, and that is a theme in this game, too. Seven different Wolverines had a sack in last week's win against Indiana. Mike Morris leads Michigan with five sacks, and new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter continues to get a strong push from the defensive line.
— Will Harbaugh turn McCarthy loose? McCarthy threw his first interception of the season in the end zone against Indiana, and it will be interesting to see how many vertical shots he takes against a talented Penn State secondary that features Joey Porter Jr. and leading tackler Ji'Ayir Brown. Veteran defensive coordinator Manny Diaz had a bye week to come up with a few new looks against McCarthy, whose favorite targets have been Ronnie Bell (390 yards, 1 TD) and tight end Luke Schoonmaker (229 yards, 2 TDs).
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— Matchup in the middle. For the interior line lovers, there is a great matchup in the middle between Penn State defensive tackle P.J. Mustipher and Michigan center Victor Oluwatimi, and that is a matchup the Nittany Lions need to win to slow down Michigan's running game. Hassan Haskins had 31 carries for 156 yards against Penn State last season in a game that Blake Corum – this year's leading rusher – missed. The inverse matchup between Penn State center Juice Scruggs and Michigan defensive tackle Mazi Smith will be good, too.
Stat that matters
This is Clifford's fourth start against Michigan, and he's 2-1 in the previous encounters. He is 54 of 96 for 555 yards and four TDs in the previous three starts, and most importantly, no interceptions. Penn State (+6) and Michigan (+4) have won the turnover battle through this part of the season, and that's going to be the key for Clifford on the road – especially if Penn State gets an early lead.
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Michigan vs. Penn State prediction
What does a top-10 Big Ten football showdown typically come down to? Who runs the ball and stops the run. Penn State (79.8 ypg.) and Michigan (81.4 ypg.) have excellent run defense, but with running backs such as Singleton and Corum, all it takes is one or two huge runs. Michigan will lead a tight game at halftime, and Corum will provide that run in the third quarter. Michigan's pass rush will wear on Penn State and Clifford, and a late turnover seals a huge victory for the Wolverines heading into the bye week.
Final score: Michigan 31, Penn State 23
