J.J. McCarthy draft stock, projections: Where experts have Michigan QB going in 2024 NFL mock drafts

Crissy Froyd

J.J. McCarthy draft stock, projections: Where experts have Michigan QB going in 2024 NFL mock drafts image

The 2023 College Football Playoff national championship matchup between No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Washington will feature a host of NFL prospects with two quarterbacks who could go on to be NFL starters, Michigan's J.J. McCarthy and Washington's Michael Penix Jr.

McCarthy is one of the more polarizing quarterbacks in the draft, with some seeing him as a player with legitimate upside who is the best quarterback in Michigan football history. Others see him as simply a cog in the machine, or a system quarterback who can only succeed in certain situations and only brings so much to the table in his own right.

Here's a look into the breakdown of who McCarthy is as a quarterback and where he's projected to be drafted if he declares for the 2024 NFL Draft.

J.J. McCarthy scouting report

Crissy Froyd, The Sporting News

J.J. McCarthy strengths

There's one primary attribute needed from a quarterback who is more than just a "game manager," or one who primarily moves the chains by checking things down and has receivers who capitalize on yards after the catch.

That thing is pro-level arm talent, something not every signal-caller possesses. There's obviously a difference between adequate arm strength and having a Howitzer, though. McCarthy falls on the right side of that spectrum.

He couples that immense arm talent with the velocity to give his receivers a chance when throwing the ball into tight windows, good timing on routes with his receivers, anticipation, soundness in mechanics and going through progressions, and a high football IQ to understand what's happening while consistently making the right decisions. 

MORE: Michael Penix Jr. vs. J.J. McCarthy stats: How Washington, Michigan quarterbacks compare

J.J. McCarthy weaknesses

McCarthy has been knocked by some for his slender build at 6-foot-3, 203 pounds, but it wouldn't be the first time a quarterback with a similar physical makeup has succeeded in the NFL.

One of the biggest concerns with McCarthy is how he operates under pressure. In those situations, McCarthy has been known to hesitate and drop his eyes, which can get him into trouble.

His ball placement has also been off at times despite a strong offensive line and solid supporting cast.

J.J. McCarthy NFL player comparison: Andrew Luck

Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh himself noted this comparison and when looking at the film and traits of the two, it's easy to see why from a passing perspective. McCarthy is a strong traditional pocket passer as Luck was, playing at a similar level.

Luck had the proper amount of athleticism to succeed as a pocket passer, though McCarthy is more talented in that particular category with legitimate speed and agility. He can hurt defenses with his legs, something he's done many times throughout his career.

J.J. McCarthy stats

McCarthy has largely been pinned as a game manager, but some of that comes down to the way Michigan runs its offense. There's no question he has executed it well.

Here's a look into McCarthy's stats over the past three seasons.

Year Team Games Comp. % Passing yards Pass TDs INTs
2021 Michigan 11 57.6% 516 5 2
2022 Michigan 14 64.6% 2,719 22 5
2023 Michigan 14 73.2% 2,851 22 4
Career total Michigan  39 67.9% 6,086 49 11

McCarthy has also carried the ball sparingly in his time with the Wolverines, recording 157 rushing attempts for 601 yards with 10 trips to the end zone.

J.J. McCarthy NFL draft projections

The Sporting News

  • Analyst: Crissy Froyd
  • Projection: Round 1

Analysis: "There's obviously a difference between adequate arm strength and having a Howitzer, though. McCarthy falls on the right side of that spectrum. He couples that immense arm talent with the velocity to give his receivers a chance when throwing the ball into tight windows, good timing on routes with his receivers, anticipation, soundness in mechanics and going through progressions, and a high football IQ to understand what's happening while consistently making the right decisions."

Bleacher Report

  • Analyst: Derrik Klassen
  • Projection: Round 4

Analysis: "McCarthy fits best in a Shanahan-style system that simplifies things pre-snap and leans into throws over the middle of the field with the help of play action. He has the requisite arm talent and pocket toughness to function in that system. Even still, McCarthy will take time to develop his ability to progress from the pocket and, hopefully, add weight and strength."

ESPN

  • Analyst: Matt Miller
  • Projection: Round 1

Analysis: "Could the Raiders roll with Aidan O'Connell in 2024? Sure, but all signs right now point to them starting over at quarterback with a new regime in place, even after signing Jimmy Garoppolo in the 2023 offseason. McCarthy is instinctive, efficient, and effective as a second-effort creator outside of the pocket. The Michigan scheme does him no favors in terms of statistics, but NFL scouts continue to tell me that McCarthy will be drafted earlier than expected."

Crissy Froyd

Crissy Froyd Photo

Crissy Froyd is a content producer at The Sporting News covering college football, the NFL and other sports. A graduate of LSU in 2021, she has nine years' experience writing about football across all levels, specializing in quarterback analysis and the NFL Draft. Her work previously appeared in USA Today, Sports Illustrated and NBC Sports, among other outlets.