Baker Mayfield nearly won the Heisman Trophy a season ago, but the remarkable production of Lamar Jackson stifled his climb into true favorite contention.
While Jackson has remained productive this season, it has been Mayfield’s outstanding production and efficiency for Oklahoma that has paved his way to claim the Heisman after finishing in the top five of voting two years in a row.
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With just two games left on the schedule and a massive lead now built after two must-win games, it’s Mayfield’s to lose. How does the rest of the Heisman race look?
Just Missed
Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
5. Khalil Tate, Arizona
Why he’s top five: Since Khalil Tate took over as the Arizona starter, the Wildcats have won five of six games, their only loss on the road against USC two weeks ago. Tate had his worst passing game last week, but he was only needed for 23 plays against Oregon State. His dual-threat production has been reminiscent of Jackson’s breakout season two years ago.
What he has to show: Despite Tate’s remarkable production, he’s not going to win the Heisman trophy. But if he can put up 400-plus yards of total offense in each of the last two games against Oregon and Arizona Sate, he’ll earn an invite to New York.
4. Bryce Love, Stanford
Why he’s top five: Bryce Love got back to his 100-yard rushing ways against Washington, leading Stanford to an upset victory that puts the Cardinal back in the mix for the Pac-12 title. Love has been in the Heisman discussion since early in the season, and with 1600-plus rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns, his production alone puts him in the mix.
What he has to show: Stanford’s big win over Washington genuinely put Love back in the Heisman race. With elite running back production on a team that will likely win at least eight games this year, Love has earned an invite to the Heisman ceremony. If he can lead Stanford to a win over Notre Dame to end the season, he may actually have a shot it.
HOOVER: Mayfield, Sooners leave no doubt who Big 12's best team is
3. Lamar Jackson, Louisville
Why he’s top five: Lamar Jackson is on pace to be just as a productive and dominant as he was a year ago. But with four losses this season (including bad ones to Wake Forest and Boston College), it’s hard for Jackson to actually earn real Heisman-winning excitement.
What he has to show: Voters generally don’t want to vote for the previous year’s Heisman winner again, and Jackson is going to need substantial help to win it this season. Not only will his production need to match or exceed last year’s (very doable), but he’ll also need Saquon Barkley’s woes to continue, and for Mayfield to lose two of the Sooners' next three games.
2. Saquon Barkley, Penn State
Why he’s top five: Barkley has had just 142 rushing yards combined in his last three games. It has been a tough stretch for the former Heisman favorite, with Penn State losing two along the way and being all but eliminated from the Big Ten title discussion. Still, Barkley’s early-season heroics and clear offensive line struggles should keep him in the mix, should he go off in the last two games.
What he has to show: With Nebraska and Maryland still on the schedule, Barkley could easily rush for 250 or more yards combined in the next two games, reasserting himself as a leading Heisman favorite. It’s unlikely he’ll have a chance to win, unless Mayfield really struggles. But Barkley shouldn’t be completely counted out.
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1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Why he’s top five: Mayfield played in the Sooners' two most important games of the season back to back the last two weekends, and he couldn’t have been more dominant. He passed for 931 yards and eight touchdowns, torching the Oklahoma State and TCU defenses, the latter of which ranked sixth nationally in yards allowed per game. He has earned the clear-cut top spot in the Heisman standings.
What he has to show: Oklahoma plays Kansas this coming week, which should be a nice stat-filler for Mayfield’s end-of-year production. But he still has to get past Will Grier and West Virginia, along with the Big 12 title game, likely against TCU. If Mayfield wins out, the award is his. Even if he stumbles, his lead may be too large for anyone to overcome.