1. Bulletproof ‘Noles
Nothing has derailed this team. Not last season, not early this season, not since a redshirt freshman quarterback stepped on the field in Pittsburgh more than a year ago and everything in the sport changed.
Say what you want about how it has unfolded at Florida State — the university has made an absolute mess of (take your pick) investigating, enabling and disciplining quarterback Jameis Winston — the bottom line on the field is nothing fazes this team.
Not a botched and bungled investigation of Winston. Not the big, bad SEC in the biggest game of all. Not the hangover of winning it all or bored way they’ve played over the first month of the season.
FIRST-AND-10: FSU doing more damage than good handling Winston
“This group has done a really good job of staying focused on the task at hand,” says FSU coach Jimbo Fisher.
All of a sudden, a sham of an unbeaten team is going to end this run because of some silly trend of how FSU has played of late at N.C. State, and because a completely inept attorney for Winston somehow — if it’s possible — has made the daily drama worse? Please.
Let’s assess this on a realistic level:
N.C. State didn’t win an ACC game last season. The Wolfpack are 4-0 this season, with games against three teams who played at the FCS level last season (Old Dominion, Georgia Southern, Presbyterian), and against one of the five worst teams in FBS last season (USF).
N.C. State should have lost to Georgia Southern, and ODU pulled to within a score of taking the lead in the fourth quarter. Forget about the Wolfpack winning four of the last six in this series in Raleigh.
Those N.C. State teams played better defense and had better skill on offense. And those FSU teams didn’t have a guy named Winston.
Not since Cam Newton has there been a player who can compartmentalize drama off the field and prevent it from affecting his play on it. Winston has a civil suit against him for allegedly sexually assaulting a woman at FSU, and his own university is in the middle of a Title IX investigation that could — worst-case scenario — lead to his dismissal.
Yet nothing dents the armor. Do you really think a fake unbeaten like N.C. State is going to stop this train?
2. The only way to change
The proud Michigan program has been reduced to this: hypotheticals.
— What if the Wolverines lose to Minnesota this weekend for the first time since 2005, and only the second time in nearly a quarter century?
— Could Michigan AD Dave Brandon — he himself not exactly the most secure guy at the university — fire Hoke after an ugly loss to the Gophers, who aren’t nearly as talented at the Wolverines?
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— Can Michigan fire Hoke on the hope that San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh — who hasn’t exactly been the most loyal Michigan alum over the years — would leave the NFL and return to the college game?
If you’re Michigan, it’s fairly simple. You ride the one constant this season (tailback Derrick Green) and do everything you can to not give away turnovers. If that means punt and play defense, that’s not a bad thing.
Michigan hasn’t scored a touchdown this season against Power 5 opponents (Notre Dame, Utah), and hasn’t reached the red zone — a statistic that defies logic considering the talent in the program. Watch the first drive against Minnesota.
If the Wolverines go down the field and score, confidence soars and a month of frustration ends. And if they don’t, you ask?
It’s full of hypotheticals.
Michigan would be wise to give plenty of carries to Derrick Green vs. Minnesota. (Getty Images)
3. Ground and pound vs. flash and dash
In the long list of deceiving numbers through the first month of the season, one is way overlooked.
Texas A&M is 42nd in the nation in run defense, a number that has been strengthened by a big lead on South Carolina (which gave up early on the run), and games against FCS Lamar, and Group of 5 teams Rice and SMU. In that four-game scenario, you’d expect a significantly better run defense ranking.
BY THE NUMBERS: Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
In other words, there’s your red flag for this weekend. Not a good sign with Arkansas and its run-first Crawl Ball rolling into Arlington, Texas, and still looking for its first SEC win under coach Bret Bielema.
By comparison, Auburn is No. 11 in the nation in run defense, and the Hogs ran for 175 yards — well below their 324.5 yards per game average, but still a telling number — in a 45-21 loss.
If Arkansas is going to upset Texas A&M, it will have to do what it did to Texas Tech and its up-tempo, pass-happy offense: withstand the initial onslaught and get an early stop or two. In that scenario, Arkansas can slow tempo and force the Aggies into situations where they can’t miss on offense — for fear of giving up the ball and their defense getting worn down.
4. Sticky spot
Baylor began the season playing three times in 13 days. When the Bears play Saturday at Iowa State, it will be 15 days since they last played.
That strange beginning of the season is compounded by two key factors: Baylor hasn’t played anyone of significance (SMU, FCS Northwestern State, Buffalo) and may not until November, and quarterback Bryce Petty is recovering from a broken bone in his back.
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Petty is healthy and playing, and we might know a little more about this team after this weekend. Baylor has lost its last two trips to Iowa State, and neither was close (lost by two touchdowns each time).
If you look strictly at last season, this is a mismatch; Baylor won by 64 in Waco. But this I-State team is confident after beating Iowa two weeks ago. Moreover, the Cyclones should have beaten Kansas State in Week 2 — the same K-State that should have beaten Auburn last week.
That’s a whole lot of should haves, but there’s also a history of upsets of ranked teams under Cyclones coach Paul Rhoads: Texas (2010), Texas Tech, Oklahoma State (2011), TCU (2012).
The Cyclones haven’t given up a passing touchdown all season, and had four sacks in their last game against Iowa. They’re confident, and Baylor hasn’t lined up against Big 12-quality players this season. At the very least, it’s not a 64-point game this time around.
5. Pig’s payback
That was Pig Howard last year, diving for the pylon in overtime and fumbling the ball into and out of the end zone and ending Tennessee’s hopes of an upset of rival Georgia.
Tennessee was the better team that day, and gets a chance to right a significant wrong from last year on Saturday at Georgia. If the Vols win that game last season, they finish bowl eligible and get those critical extra 15 practices under then first-year coach Butch Jones.
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This group that already is much better than last season would have gotten that much more work in the 2013 postseason (more than 40 hours) to use as preparation for this season.
Think about this team, which played well last week for three quarters against Oklahoma despite being the only FBS team with zero returning starters on both lines of scrimmage, with those extra practices further shaping them. Think about QB Justin Worley, who isn’t close to the same uncertain player he was last year, with 15 more practices.
Watch how well the Vols play at Georgia this weekend — they’ll play very well and could win — and think about what could be for this steam in transition if Howard hadn’t fumbled last year.
“All we can focus on is right now,” Jones said. “You only get in trouble when you look back.”
Unless it serves as motivation moving forward.