Championship weekend began Friday with the Mid-American and Pac-12 title games. Those are the appetizers for Saturday's feast.
Track all games on Sporting News' college football scoreboard .
1. Big 12, big deal
So Bill Hancock, executive director of the College Football Playoff, dropped this interesting tidbit to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Dave Matter:
“Baylor ’s body of work will change drastically on Saturday.”
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Before we go any further, understand this: Hancock doesn’t vote in the poll, but he’s in the room not only during the voting process but also during conversations about the teams from the committee members. If Hancock is using the word “drastically," the Kansas State game has the chance to change the dynamic of the four playoff teams.
More specifically, TCU’s seemingly insurmountable lead on Baylor as of last week’s poll. The Horned Frogs are No.3 in the country and Baylor is No.6 – despite Baylor’s head-to-head win over TCU in October. The committee has used TCU’s “body of work” as its crutch in keeping TCU ahead of Baylor.
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Now, apparently, the Kansas State game will at the very least level the resumes of the two teams. And if it evens up, Baylor’s head-to-head win over TCU comes into play.
That’s what makes this game so critical for a team that still doesn’t know the health of its most important player.
Now that Baylor QB Bryce Petty has been cleared to play, Baylor is nearly unbeatable at home no matter the circumstances (ask TCU). With a good game from Petty, the Bears can make a statement and might just have enough to pass TCU.
If Petty gets dinged again, then it’s going to be a grind for Baylor – even with talented backup QB Seth Russell. K-State will be bring pressures Russell hasn’t seen before; Petty has seen it all.
Petty has talked all week about not missing the game, sounding as focused and engaged as he was early last month when he responded over and over to every question, “We’ll be ready for Oklahoma.”
Baylor won that game by 34 points, giving the Sooners their worst home loss under coach Bob Stoops. If Baylor and Petty are that focused again, K-State’s in trouble.
Kickoff is 7:45 p.m. ET Saturday at Baylor. Also Saturday: Iowa State at TCU, noon ET; and Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, 3:30 p.m. ET.
2. Run, Tide Run
As well as Blake Sims played last week against Auburn, don’t be shocked if Alabama leans on tailbacks T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry in the SEC Championship. The Tide face Missouri at 4 p.m. ET in Atlanta.
This isn’t about Sims as much as it is not playing into Missouri’s strengths: rushing the passer and covering in the secondary. Sims hasn’t played well away from home when forced into quick decisions, and will be in a hostile environment in the Georgia Dome.
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Half of the stadium will be Alabama fans, the other half will be Missouri fans and fans from other SEC schools whose teams didn’t advance to the game. Guess who they’ll be screaming for?
Moreover, Missouri’s defensive line isn’t necessarily made to stop the run and the Tigers have had problems this year doing so. They are clearly a rush the passer, create turnovers type of defense — and Alabama can’t play into it.
Establishing the run and throwing off play action – like Auburn did in last year’s SEC Championship Game — is the clearest path for the Tide. If offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin gets too fixated on throwing with three- and five-step drops (it certainly has happened on occasions), he’s giving Missouri exactly what it needs to pull and upset and keep No. 1 Alabama from the College Football Playoff.
Kickoff is 4 p.m. ET at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.
3. Do what you do
So you’re Ohio State. You’re down a quarterback, your team is reeling from a death in the football family and you’re staring at a hot team from the Big Ten West Division in the league’s championship game.
Don’t think for a second Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer is going to suddenly change everything he believes in because he’s playing third-string quarterback Cardale Jones or because his team absorbed an emotional gut punch.
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The Buckeyes won’t get conservative and run the ball and play defense, and get into a he who holds the ball longest wins game with Crawl Ball king Wisconsin. Jones is going to throw the ball; maybe not as much as injured star J.T. Barrett, but enough that Wisconsin can’t focus on stopping the run to stop the Buckeyes.
If you think Jones is simply a caretaker the rest of the season, you obviously don’t know Meyer. Jones has been around this offense for three years; he knows the ins and outs of it.
More important, Ohio State has the skill at wideout — the most underrated wide receiving corps in the nation with Michael Thomas, Devin Smith and Jalin Marshall — to make Jones’ transition easier.
Ohio State and Wisconsin meet in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title. Kickoff is 8:17 p.m. ET.
4. Time to turn it on
This is what it has come to for defending national champion Florida State: If the ‘Noles haven’t been motivated enough this season, how does it automatically happen now?
How does unbeaten FSU, which played less than inspired against rivals Miami (Fla.) and Florida and hasn’t played a complete game all season, suddenly turn it on in the ACC Championship Game against a hot Georgia Tech team because the CFP selection committee dropped the Seminoles behind three one-loss teams?
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How does FSU, which played its best game of the season when quarterback Jameis Winston was suspended against Clemson, ignore the season-long drama and focus on a team — and a funky option offense — that can ruin its season?
The biggest problem the 'Noles face is the one they’ve avoided game after game: Will there be enough time and enough possessions to come back from deficit if FSU does what it has routinely done all season — play from behind?
Georgia Tech and its option offense will stay on the field, run clock and eliminate possessions for the FSU offense. That a bad combination for a team that has needed late-game heroics for much of the second half of the season.
Florida State at Georgia Tech play for the ACC title Saturday. Kickoff is 8 p.m. ET in Charlotte, N.C.