1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …
The more we whine and complain about it, the less we see the College Football Playoff for what it truly is: a titillating and tenuous crapshoot.
We were sold a pie in the sky ideal that the days of one game wrecking a season were over. It took all of two years to change that.
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Now one play — one flippin' play — can change the course of a playoff hunt.
One crazy, you’ve got to be kidding me play, where a prayer of a lateral on fourth and forever somehow flew backward 10 yards, got knocked down and bounced — BOUNCED! — right into the hands of the best player on the field, who ran for a first down and changed the season like few could have imagined.
Without the Hog Heave, the CFP would be cruising into the final week of the season with the two best teams in the game — Alabama and Ohio State — out of contention in their conference and CFP races. At least, that’s what we’ve been told by the selection committee.
Remember, conference championships are critical in the final analysis. That’s why the Big 12 (Baylor or TCU) got hosed last year, and why independent Notre Dame can’t afford a loss any year.
It’s why the new one play mantra has reverberated throughout an acid trip of a season.
— If Ole Miss recovers the lateral from Arkansas tight end Hunter Henry, the Rebels are playing in Saturday’s SEC Championship Game and Alabama needs Treon Harris (stop laughing) to beat the Rebels and hope the CFP (like the BCS of the past) has mercy.
— If Michigan punter Blake O’Neill cleanly fields a snap, Michigan State’s mauling of Ohio State two weeks ago means nothing — and the East Division Buckeyes are playing unbeaten Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game with a spot in the CFP on the line.
— If Oklahoma doesn’t knock down a two-point conversion attempt from a backup TCU quarterback in the final seconds of a 30-29 victory, the Horned Frogs are Big 12 champions and a lock for the CFP — despite a 20-point loss to Oklahoma State and a gift win in the pouring rain against Baylor and its third-string quarterback.
Again, this is all based on the premise that conference championships supersede all. That’s why Ohio State received the fourth and final spot in last year’s CFP ahead of Baylor and TCU, and why the Sooners magically jumped Notre Dame in last week’s poll because the committee could “project” (another inane “metric”) OU winning the Big 12 and place them ahead of independent Notre Dame.
Why is this all so important, you ask? Because Ohio State, sitting at home and watching Michigan State play Iowa for a spot in the CFP, isn’t out of this thing yet. In fact, the Buckeyes, at No. 6 in the CFP rankings, might just be in a better situation by not playing this weekend.
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Instead of having to play an unbeaten and undervalued Iowa team in a championship game, Ohio State gets to sit home and see if white-hot North Carolina can upset No. 1 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, thus paving the way for the Buckeyes to return to the CFP.
If you don’t think that will happen, you clearly haven’t learned from last season. UNC beating Clemson leaves the Tigers without a conference championship, and suddenly inferior to Ohio State — even though Clemson has, by far, the better resume between two one-loss non-champions.
Lest we forget: TCU and Baylor had, by far, better resumes than Ohio State last season.
But here’s the real problem for the CFP committee and the difficult spot they’ve boxed themselves into. If UNC beats Clemson, the committee could have to choose Ohio Sate over not one, but two conference champions should Stanford win the Pac-12.
Both Stanford (No. 7) and North Carolina (No. 10) are currently behind Ohio State, and as easy as it is to say those things will change if both win their conference, don't forget that Ohio State is the defending national champion. There's a reason Ohio State, despite only one good win (Michigan) and a horrible resume otherwise, is still sitting at No. 6.
If Clemson loses and Ohio State is chosen over Stanford — with a far better resume than Ohio State and conference championship — everything the committee has said about the value of conference championships is wiped away and the playoff is exposed for the eye test it is.
And that’s fine — just don’t sell it as something different to get certain high market, high value teams (Ohio State) in the playoff over others (TCU, Baylor in 2014; Stanford, Clemson, UNC in 2015).
Then again, if Blake O’Neill fields that punt cleanly, the CFP wouldn’t have to go through this hide-and-seek process. You see, one play really does impact a season.
And the CFP shell game.