1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …
We’re at critical mass now, folks. Two weeks remain of every game matters, and then we usher in groundbreaking change.
Only one of the architects of that change already has second thoughts. Or at the very least, just publicly stated what everyone already knows, anyway.
That was ACC commissioner John Swofford, the only man standing next to SEC commissioner Mike Slive last decade when this whole playoff idea was hatched, telling the Durham (N.C.) Sports Club last week that an eight-team playoff “would probably be ideal.”
Let that sink in.
MORE: Top 10 rivalry rankings | Ranking the best 15 games this week | Bowl projections
We haven’t even run through one cycle of the clearly controversial four-team playoff (of course it was going to be this way), and already a key figure in the formation of the playoff from the wildly successful BCS is hedging.
Can you blame him?
The only unbeaten team in the game (Florida State) currently sits at No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings because the selection committee has decided that “body of work” and losses because of “critical injuries” and something called “game control” are more important than, you know, winning games. That team just so happens to play in Swofford’s conference.
You don’t really think it’s a coincidence that Swofford, a brilliant tactician as a player and athletic director at North Carolina and as ACC commissioner, let it slip last week that eight is better than four. Here’s a man who has more than doubled the ACC’s annual revenue as commissioner, and when Slive retires in June of 2015, will be the one, measured voice among the din of the Power 5 powerbrokers.
This eight-team thing didn’t just slip, people.
“I wouldn’t confuse someone’s musings with any type of call for action,” says CFP executive director Bill Hancock. “There has been no discussion among our group about changing this format.”
Nor should there be. At least not yet.
Four teams is good; four is just enough to heighten anticipation, and just not enough to make you crave more. It’s the perfect recipe for controversy, which we all know was the lifeblood of college football’s boon BCS era.
A move to eight would likely force conferences to give up their championship games, and there’s not a chance the SEC walks away from the one event that has defined who it is for 20-plus years. Every other Power 5 conference would willingly walk from the championship game business.
If anything, expect the SEC to double down on its marquee game, eventually selling it to the highest television bidder as a stand-alone game — much like the rebranded CFP Championship Game. You better believe that will be one of Greg Sankey’s first moves as new SEC commissioner (if he’s not commissioner, something has gone spectacularly wrong).
So where does that leave us? The only logical move: six teams.
Six opens the playoff for two more teams while making the regular season even more impactful. The top two teams receive byes in a six-team playoff, and there’s only one week (and two games) added to the calendar — eliminating the need to play the dreaded “second semester” football university presidents abhor.
More important, six keeps the playoff on the cusp of not enough (eight gets too close to overkill), but leaves everyone — players, fans, television, advertisers — wanting more.
Now that’s ideal.
2. The Fisking of Jameis
I’m not sure, but I think Jameis Winston just refused to help an elderly woman cross the street.
Someone inform Twitter.
MORE: Jimbo Fisher goes to bat (again) for Winston
3. Topped out
Will it ever get any better for Hugh Freeze at Ole Miss? (Getty Images)
There’s no easy way to say this, no simple explanation for something staring a potentially great coach dead in the eyes.
If Hugh Freeze wants to develop into an elite coach and win championships, it’s time to leave Ole Miss.
Because if it didn’t happen this year at Mississippi, when will it for the Oxford native? If the Rebels couldn’t break through and win the SEC West Division with heavyweights Alabama, Auburn and LSU vulnerable, when will they?
MORE: Florida coach tracker
After a season of hope was gut-punched last weekend with a 30-0 loss to Arkansas, there’s nothing left for Freeze — one of the game’s bright young offensive minds and a terrific recruiter — in Oxford. It’s time to move on to a place where he can consistently recruit at a high level and consistently win big games.
Maybe that’s Florida. Maybe it’s LSU if Les Miles leaves for Michigan. Maybe it’s Michigan.
But know this: two years ago Freeze landed the No. 7 recruiting class according to Rivals.com, one that included SEC stars Robert Nkemdiche, Laquon Treadwell, Laremy Tunsil and Evan Engram.
Last year, the Ole Miss class was ranked No. 19. This year, with 10 weeks remaining, they’ve fallen out of the top 20 (currently No. 21) and are moving closer to the No. 40 ranking from 2012 than the No. 7 ranking of 2013 — if, for no other reason, geographical footprint.
Texas A&M took a step back this fall, but will potentially be a monster for years to come because of Kevin Sumlin’s ability to recruit the state of Texas. Arkansas is now a legitimate factor in the West under Bret Bielema (if that 30-0 whitewash of Ole Miss doesn’t prove it, what does?), and Mississippi State will still take its share of elite state recruits.
It’s an uphill battle for a program that might already have hit its ceiling.
Now imagine what Freeze could do with Florida’s recruiting base, or Michigan’s national brand, or LSU’s recruiting clout. The potential is scary good.
If Freeze is going to go, it has to be now. Florida and Michigan (inevitable) open at the same time is a rarity.
That Freeze is a hot commodity at the same time is the very reason he can’t say no.
4. Gopher watching
In Fort Worth, they’re all Goldie Gopher fans. In Columbus, they’re desperate for a Wisconsin victory.
Never has Paul Bunyan’s Axe been so coveted by more than just Minnesota and Wisconsin. TCU needs Minnesota, which the Horned Frogs whipped 30-7 in September, to keep winning to strengthen its overall body of work for the College Football Playoff selection committee.
MORE: Name that rivalry game trophy
Ohio State needs Wisconsin because the Buckeyes already have beaten Minnesota, and what good would another win over the Gophers in the Big Ten Championship Game do for their resume?
While that percolates, understand this about Saturday’s game that will decide the Big Ten West Division: Minnesota has lost 10 straight in the series, and hasn’t won in Madison since 1994.
And forget about comparative scores in the last two weeks. The reality is, both contributed to the final days of Bo Pelini at Nebraska.
5. The Weekly Five
Five ways Duke will pay back North Carolina after next year’s game for this year’s Tar Heels’ post-game shenanigans:
1. Will steal the BSKW 101 (that’s Basket Weaving) cheat sheets from the UNC lockers.
2. Will leave copies of the wildly popular book: Study Habits of the Rich and Famous.
3. Will buy all Cat in the Hat books from the Triad area.
4. Will install an all-read-option game plan knowing full well UNC can’t stop it because, well, you know.
5. Will return the favor by spray-painting U-N-C at midfield. And spelling it correctly.
6. The stretch run
Before we get all sideways and start penciling in teams to spots in the College Football Playoff, understand that each of the unbeaten and one-loss teams has serious obstacles to overcome.
And if the BCS taught us anything, it’s expect the unexpected. Or in this case — with two more spots available — the ridiculous. Odds of your team finding a way to blow it:
HAYES: Predicting the four in, four out of playoffs
FSU (11-0)
Games remaining: vs. Florida, ACC Championship Game vs. Georgia Tech
The breakdown: Have we not learned yet? Here’s what’s going to happen: the Noles will fall behind, we’ll get giddy with anticipation and the next thing you know, here comes Jameis Winston with a game-winning drive. Why not two more times this season — until it finally ends in the semifinals. Gag meter: low.
Alabama (10-1)
Games remaining: vs. Auburn, vs. Missouri or Georgia in the SEC Championship Game
The breakdown: It is the Iron Bowl, after all. Although frankly, Auburn has tanked. The SEC Championship Game is another deal altogether. The Tide haven’t played well away from home against quality teams because OC Lane Kiffin can’t coach QB Blake Sims mid-game with the din of the stadium. The Georgia Dome, if Georgia is the East representative, will be wild. Gag meter: medium.
Oregon (10-1)
Games remaining: at Oregon State, vs. Pac-12 South Champion
The breakdown: Two weeks ago, the Civil War looked fairly interesting when Oregon State upset Arizona State — but that was followed by a OSU whiff against Washington. The Beavers are too inconsistent to beat the Ducks, but UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State can all three beat Oregon. Arizona has done it the last two seasons — but needs to beat Arizona State (with QB Anu Solomon questionable) and needs Stanford to beat UCLA to win the South. Gag meter: low.
HEISMAN WATCH: Mariota vs. Gordon
Baylor (9-1)
Games remaining: vs. Texas Tech (Arlington, Texas), vs. Kansas State
The breakdown: The Bears might score 70 on Texas Tech, but won’t get half of that against K-State and its stingy defense. Baylor is next to impossible to beat playing at home (ask TCU and its 21-point lead with 10 minutes to play), but that means nothing when the pressure of winning the Big 12 — and possibly earning a spot to the CFP — is on the line. Gag meter: medium.
BENDER: Four reasons Bears belong in top 4
TCU (9-1)
Games remaining: at Texas, vs. Iowa State
The breakdown: A tough spot for the Horned Frogs, who roll into Austin for a Thanksgiving Night game to play a confident and physical Texas team. If Longhorns QB Tyrone Swoopes continues his late-season surge (4 TDs, 1 INT in three November wins), the Baylor-TCU argument is moot. Gag meter: high.
Ohio State (10-1)
Games remaining: vs. Michigan, Big Ten Championship Game vs. Minnesota or Wisconsin
The breakdown: The easiest road of all the contenders. Michigan will be a gnat on the windshield, and Minnesota or Wisconsin can’t do enough in the passing game to force the Buckeyes’ defense into choosing what to stop. Gag meter: low.
BENDER: 'Game control' doesn't apply to these Buckeyes
7. The football is your friend
Question, Notre Dame fan: if Tommy Rees was “Turnover” Tommy Rees, what exactly does that make Everett Golson?
Because we’re now eight games into this madness that is Golson’s ball security problems, and it’s getting worse by the week. Remember when the narrative was Golson had developed into an elite quarterback and was carrying Notre Dame along for the ride?
Get this: Golson has 20 turnovers in his last eight games, and he’s not taking Notre Dame anywhere. He’s dragging the Irish down — turnover by turnover.
The 13 interceptions are bad enough; the seven — for the love of Grotto, seven! — fumbles have absolutely gutted the Irish season. The very last thing any coach expects is his quarterback, the guy who handles the ball on every offensive play, to not tuck it away and protect it.
ND has lost four of its last five, with the only win in that span coming against Navy. The season mercifully ends this weekend at bitter rival USC, the least anticipated USC-Notre Dame game in more than a decade.
The same team Tommy Rees beat last season.
8. The next big thing
What Justin Fuente has done at Memphis will land him a bigger, better job. (Getty Images)
Justin Fuente likes to talk about guts and passion, and how it can take teams a long way in college football.
It can also take a coach from the worst job in FBS to maybe the best.
If you’re looking for a young, passionate and talented coach; if you’re looking for the next Urban Meyer (without the baggage), here’s your guy: Justin Fuente.
MORE: Michigan should fire Hoke, pull 'Earle Bruce card'
When he arrived at Memphis, there were some among the university’s heavy hitters who thought about disbanding the program. Now look: three years later, the Tigers are one win away this weekend — at home against UConn — from winning the American Athletic Conference in their first season in the league.
Is it a big jump from Memphis to Florida or Michigan? Absolutely — but is it any bigger than Meyer from Utah (then a Mountain West team) to Florida?
Fuente was TCU’s offensive coordinator under Gary Patterson, and played a critical role in the development of star quarterback Andy Dalton. You would have heard a lot more about Fuente this fall if the Tigers could have beaten UCLA in September (42-35 loss).
Instead you’ll hear about him after the Tigers win the AAC this weekend, and some high-profile teams (Florida, Michigan, Nebraska), officially begin the process of looking for new head coaches.
9. Playing for the future
These are the arguments the CFP selection committee was made to settle. It’s just that these decisions are so critical the growth of those trying to keep up with the heavy hitters of the game.
This much we know: one Group of 5 team will play in an elite New Year’s Day bowl. More than likely, it’s coming from the Mountain West Mountain Division (I know, it’s confusing).
If Boise State (9-2) beats Utah State (8-3) at home, the Broncos win the Mountain and will play Mountain West West Division (again, confusing) champ San Diego State or Fresno State for the MWC title. At 11-2, Boise State, with its committee-speak “body of work”, is a lock to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 team — no matter what unbeaten Marshall does the remainder of the season.
Why is this important? Because if the Big 12 ever does expand to 12 (again, confusing) and reinstitute its championship game, it will be based purely on football success.
10. Smart stuff
Just in case any Power 5 athletic director decided he wanted to win games and championships — and produce quality young men — under strict academic standards, I give you Hardvard’s Tim Murphy:
In two decades with the Crimson, Murphy’s teams have won or shared eight Ivy League championships and have turned the Ivy sideways with a pass-friendly (see: fan friendly) offense.
Harvard has won 21 of its last 22 games, has won nine straight vs. bitter rival Yale (and 13 of 14) and is 148-62 (.705) in 21 seasons under Murphy.
Or you can hire a hot young assistant with zero experience.