1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …
We’re one month into the season and it’s time to officially reintroduce the most perplexing team in college football.
Welcome back, Baylor. It’s time to become more than just a circus show.
MORE: Power 5 conference rankings | Week 5 Big 12 Power Rankings
“We’ve done the close stuff a couple of times,” Art Briles says. “Now we’ve got to finish.”
Because as far as Baylor has come under Briles; as impressive as back-to-back Big 12 championships is for a program nearly left for dead five years ago during conference realignment, all anyone remembers about this team is the way the 2013 and 2014 seasons ended.
You can have your high-flying offenses and thrill-a-minute games and Heisman Trophy candidates. That stuff is fleeting.
Here’s what’s real and lasting: an embarrassing seal clubbing at the hands of UCF in the 2013 Fiesta Bowl, and a blown 20-point lead and loss to Michigan State in the 2014 Cotton Bowl.
If you don’t think that ugly loss to non-Power 5 school UCF had anything to do with the way the College Football Playoff selection committee saw Baylor all last season; if you don’t think the loss to Michigan State last season won’t impact the way the Bears are seen this fall, you’re absolutely fooling yourself.
There are zero metrics when it comes to choosing four teams to play for the national championship. The CFP folks may tell you they look at head-to-head (apparently not until the last poll) or schedule strength or common opponents, but the final decision comes down to eye test.
Or what we heard over and over last December from committee members: the overall “feeling” among the group was Ohio State was the best team — ahead of Baylor and TCU — for the final fourth spot.
Not because of resumes (Ohio State had the worst of the three), not because of strength of schedule (Ohio State had the worst of the three), not because of best win (Ohio State had worst best win), not because of worst loss (Ohio State had the worst loss) — but because of a “feeling.”
Let me tell you now about the Baylor feel: long on offense, short on defense, crumbles in big moments.
And if you don’t think the committee members know this, “feel” this, you’re probably the same guy who thought some nebulous computer program was spitting out those BCS rankings for the seven computer geeks — not the geeks themselves.
“We hear what people say,” says Baylor quarterback Seth Russell. “We have the power to change that by the way we play every week.”
It begins this week against Texas Tech in Arlington, Texas, the first time this season we’ll see Baylor play a team with a pulse. Victories over SMU, Rice and Lamar — come on, man, Lamar? — mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme, and only further ding the Baylor resume and reinforce the narrative of a lack of significant wins (fair or not).
Since Baylor doesn’t face a true Big 12 heavyweight until Nov. 14 (vs. Oklahoma), this game against Texas Tech is one the CFP committee will watch closely — if for no other reason, because TCU needed a Shevin Wiggins/Matt Davison miracle to escape Lubbock last weekend. And we all know what TCU does, Baylor must do better.
By better, we mean being what Briles calls being a “devastatingly dominant” team. In other words, not losing as a double-digit favorite to UCF, or as a double-digit favorite to West Virginia, or blowing a huge lead with 11 minutes to play against Michigan State.
You’re kidding yourself if you don’t think that’s part of the process this season. The only way to make it all go away is to win every single week.
“We saw what happened last year when things were no longer in our control,” Briles said.
And it’s not a good feeling.
2. Life on The Plains
One minute, you’ve left 30 points on the field in the Iron Bowl and the only thing that can stop you is yourself. The next, you’re kicking field goals and being compared to Gene Chizik.
There’s something so comforting about all things Auburn.
3. Bigger isn’t necessarily better
Boise State last week likely cleared its last hurdle along the way to an 11-1 season, and another spot in a CFP New Year’s Six bowl game.
In that scenario, Bryan Harsin would be 23-3 in two years at Boise State with two CFP major bowls on his resume. In other words, a prime target for a heavyweight Power 5 school.
MORE: September's Winners & Losers
Now, a history lesson: the three Boise State coaches before Harsin all did what Harsin is doing now, and eventually left for bigger and better things. Dirk Koetter, Dan Hawkins and Chris Petersen combined to go 171-33 in 16 years at Boise State, and the paths of all three significantly changed after leaving.
Koetter left for Arizona State and was fired in 2006 after six seasons and a 40-34 record. He hasn’t been a head coach since and currently is offensive coordinator for the NFL’s Bucs.
Hawkins left for Colorado and was fired in 2010 after five years and a 19-39 record, and his only coaching job since was a five-game stint with the CFL’s Alouettes (2-3) before he was replaced by the team’s general manager. He also recently coached the US National Team to the gold medal in the IFAF World Championships.
Petersen left Boise State after the 2013 season, was an uninspired 8-6 last season and is starting over this fall with a true freshman quarterback. He has lost eight games since arriving on Montlake — after losing eight in his first seven seasons at Boise State.
Hawkins proudly stated “bigger isn’t always better” when often asked why he hadn’t left Boise State for a bigger job. Petersen said the same thing, and Koetter told me a few years ago that he never should have left Boise — and that he told Petersen if he ever did leave, “I’m going to kick your ass.”
Koetter was 9-9 in his first 18 games at ASU; Hawkins was 6-12 at CU and Petersen is 10-8 at Washington.
Fast forward to Harsin: he was born in Boise, he starred at Capital High School and went on to play quarterback for the Broncos before coaching 10 seasons under Hawkins and Petersen and eventually getting the coveted job in 2014 — where he has won 15 of his first 18 games.
Moral of the story: bigger isn’t always better.
Hawkins had it right all along.
4. Quacked out
Quit trying to make sense of Oregon and its spectacular 42-point fall from the Pac-12 elite.
I’m going to wrap it up in a nice, neat bow with a neon green swoosh on it for good measure:
MORE: SN Week 5 Pac-12 Power Rankings
The Ducks led the nation in turnover margin last season at plus-23. In four games this fall, they’re even (7 turnovers, 7 gained).
More telling is the most important position on the field. Last year, Marcus Mariota was No. 1 in the nation in pass efficiency at 181.75. This year, Vernon Adams and Jeff Lockie’s combined rating is 139.9 — which would put them 60th in the nation.
Then there’s the defense, which was 31st in scoring defense and gave up 23 points a game in 2014, and is 118th this season and giving up 40 a game.
Basically, your every day complete implosion.
5. The Weekly Five
Five other secrets to success that exist only on Tennessee coach Butch Jones’ mysterious “chart”:
1. Never leave home without your pomade.
2. Always save a timeout to negate the 10-second runoff rule.
3. The perfect onside kick: with the lead and less than two minutes to play.
4. When in doubt, WWDDD (What would Derek Dooley do?)
5. Victory formation: the art of punting.
6. Making sense of it all
Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee — all preseason love magnets — have combined to lose seven games. Northwestern, NC State and California — afterthoughts all offseason — are a combined 12-for-12.
Where does it all end for the surprise unbeatens? We’ll know more after October, before the calendar flips to November and the games to remember.
BENDER: Which unbeaten teams survive October
Staying power
— Cal (4-0, 1-0): The best quarterback in the game (Jared Goff) and a defense that is finally getting key stops and has forced the most turnovers in the nation (14). There’s nothing quite like a pass-happy offense playing with the safety net of a turnover-forcing machine on defense.
— Texas A&M (4-0, 1-0): Don’t let the struggle with Arkansas fool you. The Hogs were desperate, and played that way. The sign of a team ready to make an elite step is it plays under control every week, no matter the obstacle.
— Utah (4-0, 1-0): If annually-dinged, dual-threat QB Travis Wilson stays healthy, the Utes can beat anyone in the Pac-12 — and maybe anyone in the nation. They’re a unique mix of Stanford physicality and USC speed and athletes.
— UCLA (4-0, 1-0): Admit it, you’re waiting to see the Bruins tank like everyone else. Only it’s not going to happen this time around. The Bruins must make amends for one outstanding stain under Jim Mora: four straight losses to Stanford by an average of 14 points. UCLA at Stanford, Oct. 15.
Back to reality
— Florida (4-0, 2-0): This team could easily be 1-3 and in complete disarray. One positive from the 4-0 start that will devolve into 5-3 by the end of October: the Gators found their QB of the future in redshirt freshman Will Grier. Now go play No.3 Ole Miss, No. 9 LSU, and No. 8 Georgia in the next four weeks, young man.
MORE: Grier's dad talks about watching Will lead comeback win
— Northwestern (4-0, 0-0): Let’s be honest, if Northwestern played in the SEC and had wins against Stanford and Duke, they’d be everybody’s story of the young season. Instead, we’ll just sit back and watch the carnage from Minnesota, at Michigan, Iowa and at Nebraska in October, and that Stanford win will seem like a mirage.
— NC State (4-0, 0-0): Ladies and gentlemen, the single worst schedule of September: Troy, Eastern Kentucky, at ODU, at South Alabama. Now here comes Louisville on Saturday, an uber-talented team that’s a handful of plays from 4-0. October includes a Friday night game at Virginia Tech and a home game against Clemson to close out the month.
— Indiana (4-0, 0-0): There’s a realistic chance that the Hoosiers could win every game but three (Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan) the rest of the way, and with a bowl win set the school record for most wins in a season (10). Then again, IU is just as likely to lose three of its next four games (everyone is beating Rutgers) and collapse down the stretch.
— Miami (3-0, 0-0): Two of the next four games are winnable (at Cincinnati, Virginia Tech), but they’re also part of a potential five-game slide in October (including at FSU, at Duke, Clemson) that could have the Canes searching for a coach in early November.
7. The ultimate gut punch. Again.
Matt Davison, meet Aaron Green.
(Psssst, Aaron Green began his career at Nebraska. If that does anything for anybody.)
8. October Country Roads
While we stare now at prove-it October games throughout the college landscape, understand that the Big 12 — the conference of One True Champion — has decided One True Month will decide its champion. Or co-champion. Or whatever they’re calling it these days.
MORE: Grading the new starting QBs
Check out the backloaded November schedules for the league’s heavyweights:
— TCU: at Oklahoma State, Kansas, at Oklahoma, Baylor.
— Baylor: at Kansas State, Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, at TCU
— Oklahoma: Iowa State, at Baylor, TCU, at Oklahoma State
On the flip side, we have unbeaten West Virginia and white-hot QB Skyler Howard (9 TD, 1 INT) and its November schedule: Texas Tech, Texas, at Kansas, Iowa State.
If only the Mountaineers could navigate the October schedule that includes road games at Oklahoma, Baylor and TCU. Seriously, it does.
9. Another Scarlet layer
So we come to find out through some inquisitive reporting from NJ Advance Media that the Rutgers P.E. coach tried to hire a prominent Scarlet Knights booster late last year to a position named — I swear I’m not making this up — Director of Indoctrination.
That’s right, the P.E. coach tried to hire a booster — a man who gave a $1 million gift to the program — to be part of his recruiting team. Imagine that, a deep-pocket booster on your recruiting team.
MORE: The dysfunctional Rutgers athletic department
That can’t lead to any problems.
The only thing that apparently kept the P.E. coach from hiring said booster, was the booster’s propensity — again, I’m not making this up — to tweet at high school stars and beg them to come play at Rutgers.
The tweets, of course, prompted Rutgers to self-report three minor NCAA violations (see a trend here: Rutgers adminstration, always chasing), and for booster Jeff Towers to withdraw his name from consideration as the P.E. coach’s Director of Paying Players — I mean, Indoctrination.
And Kyle Flood still has a job.
10. Low Tide
I think I can speak for everyone when I say the possibility of an SEC and CFP race without Alabama beginning the first week of October is as tragic as it is titillating.
And Greyson Lambert, who couldn’t win the starting quarterback job at a truly awful Virginia program, is going to make it all happen.
What a world.