The Sun Belt took the Underdog Challenge personally last week, delivering three big upsets. Appalachian State was an 18-point underdog at Texas A&M, Marshall was a 20.5-point underdog at Notre Dame and Georgia Southern was a 23-point underdog at Nebraska. All three picked up victories.
Alas, none of us experts here at HQ were tipped off to the impending Fun in the Sun and missed a big chance for a score in our contest. But Week 3 is here, and we will tee it up again.
As a reminder on how our contest works, our experts pick an underdog to win (not just cover) and are rewarded with however many points that team was an underdog if the upset hits.
| Place | Name | Record | Points |
| 1. | Bill Bender | 3-3 | 12.5 |
| 2. | Mike DeCourcy | 2-4 | 9 |
| 3. | Zac Al-Khateeb | 1-5 | 3.5 |
| 4. | Bill Trocchi | 0-6 | 0 |
On to the upsets.
Odds courtesy Caesars Sportsbook
Bill Bender, lead college football writer
LSU (+2.5) vs. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs won 44-34 in their last trip to Tiger Stadium, but it's a night game and that's never easy. LSU might play two quarterbacks in Jayden Daniels and Garrett Nussmeier, but it won't matter. This one feels like it could get wild in a hurry. LSU finds a way to win at home in Brian Kelly's SEC opener. It's worth the low-risk upset call.
No. 11 Michigan State (+3.5) at Washington
This will not be easy for the Spartans. They have lost 12 straight regular-season road games against Pac-12 schools, and the Huskies have looked good the first two weeks. We still think Michigan State is the better team, and the tandem of Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard will wear down the Huskies in the second half.
No. 13 Miami (+5.5) at No. 24 Texas A&M
This is the toughest one because the Aggies should respond to last week's loss against Appalachian State favorably in front of a prime-time crowd. The Hurricanes have better quarterback play right now, and Tyler Van Dyke has a strong supporting cast. Mario Cristobal leads the Canes to a statement win in a thriller.
Mike DeCourcy, senior writer
LSU (+2.5) vs. Mississippi State
Guess who’s back? That’s right, your boy here went 2-1 last week and got the third pick into overtime. And though it would have been nice to have been one of those who cashed on the misery of the Aggies, the Irish or Huskers, I didn’t need to presage any of those miracles to ring up a successful Saturday. I’m sticking mostly with the formula here: home underdogs are hard to ignore, and go for small successes rather than the big swing.
Auburn (+3) vs. No. 22 Penn State
After Sean Clifford hit only 19-of-27 passing against Ohio U, it’s hard to be convinced he’s ready to lead the Nittany Lions into the heart of SEC country and return home with a victory. The more freshman Drew Allar does what he did in mop-up time against the Zips, the more buzz there will be about the need to promote him. It’s the nature of the “If you have two quarterbacks, you don’t really have one” predicament. Auburn doesn’t appear to be a titan in this year’s SEC, but granting that squad a full field goal at home seems difficult to resist.
Western Kentucky (+6.5) at Indiana
When the default explanation for the team’s Week 2 performance becomes, “Hey, Idaho was better than we thought!” — that’s when it’s time to wonder if maybe these Hoosiers bear a greater resemblance to their immediate predecessors than to the pandemic juggernaut of 2020. The passing game isn’t sharp enough to be convinced IU is headed toward a win in this game. The opposition hasn’t been formidable, but the Hilltoppers topped 37 points in each of their first two performances. They won’t do it here, but the objective is to top IU.
Zac Al-Khateeb, content producer
Cal (+11) at Notre Dame
Notre Dame is in very real danger of starting the season 0-3. The Fighting Irish are coming off an incomprehensible loss to Marshall, a game in which the Thundering Herd actually out-gained them 364-351. Making matters worse, quarterback Tyler Buchner (who committed two turnovers in the defeat) is out for several months with an injury. His backup, Drew Pyne, was less than impressive (3 of 6 passing, one touchdown and one interception) in relief. Cal is better than Marshall, but the Fighting Irish certainly won’t look past the Golden Bears. It remains to be seen whether that will matter.
No. 12 BYU (+3.5) at Oregon
Oregon rebounded from a demoralizing Week 1 loss to Georgia by putting up 70 points on a hapless Eastern Washington team. BYU should be a more difficult challenge, however: Quarterback Jaren Hall is an efficient — if unspectacular — passer, completing 67 percent of his passes through two games for three touchdowns and an interception. He also has shown an ability to make plays with his legs, rushing 15 times for 43 yards. The Cougars are already battle-tested as well, taking No. 9 Baylor into double overtime to beat the Bears. They should be able to best the Ducks in a slugfest.
No. 13 Miami (+5.5) at No. 24 Texas A&M
The cracks that began to show in the Aggies’ slow start vs. Sam Houston became impossible to ignore in a Week 2 upset by Appalachian State. Credit the Mountaineers for their ball-control strategy, but that had no bearing on the offense’s 2-of-8 third-down conversion rate or 180 yards of total offense. Miami has looked through two weeks of cupcake games under first-year coach Mario Cristobal. He doubtless has expressed how huge a win this would be for his team. Look for a motivated Hurricanes team — and another lackluster performance by Texas A&M’s offense — to result in a Miami win.
Bill Trocchi, senior editor
No. 12 BYU (+3.5) at Oregon
We’ve got a ranked, undefeated team against an unranked team that lost 49-3 in Week 1. I’m getting a vibe about these Cougars after last week’s 26-20 overtime win against Baylor. BYU is 23-4 and has a viable path to 12-0 if it gets out of Eugene with a win. A timely Bo Nix interception would help the cause.
No. 11 Michigan State (+3.5) at Washington
My colleague Bill Bender pointed out that Big Ten teams never win at Pac-12 teams, or at least almost never. I’m leaning into the “almost never.” Washington went 4-8 last year and, yes, it has looked good so far, but the competition has been lacking. Michigan State has enough skill talent around quarterback Peyton Thorne to outscore the Huskies. I’m going with the ranked team over the unranked team again.
Vanderbilt (+2.5) at Northern Illinois
This is my alma mater’s best shot at a third win the rest of the season. NIU is the defending MAC champ and is 2-0 this season, but Vanderbilt has shown it has made strides after last season’s disastrous 2-10 debut with Clark Lea. The Commodores are 2-1 after a 45-25 loss to Wake Forest last week. With an over/under of 2.5 wins, winning Vanderbilt tickets will be cashed on Sept. 17!
