Nine ranked teams have lost to unranked teams through the first three weeks of the college football season. That included Michigan State’s 38-17 win at Miami last week, which three of our esteemed panelists saw coming in last week’s column.
We’re all about the underdogs here, and that can serve the bettor well when they predict the upset on the money line. Bill Bender saw not only Michigan State but also Louisville pulling the upsets last week, and he has shot into the lead in our Underdog Challenge. Rules of the game: each panelist picks three underdogs to win straight up, and are rewarded with as many points as that team was underdogs.
Here are our standings.
| PLACE | NAME | RECORD | POINTS |
| 1 | Bill Bender | 5-4 | 29 |
| 2 | Zac Al-Khateeb | 5-4 | 24.5 |
| 3 | Bill Trocchi | 3-6 | 16.5 |
| 4 | Mike DeCourcy | 3-6 | 13.5 |
On to the upsets.
MORE: Week 4 picks against the spread | Chaos may be coming in playoff race
Bill Bender, lead college football writer
No. 12 Notre Dame (+5.5) vs. Wisconsin (Soldier Field)
The Irish are underdogs, and that’s mainly because the running game has not been consistent through three weeks. Still, the Irish have more playmakers on offense, and the defense should be able to force a few turnovers. Brian Kelly is 14-8 straight-up against Big Ten teams, too. The Irish find a way at Soldier Field.
UTSA (+3.5) at Memphis
Memphis is coming off an upset of Mississippi State and is at home, so this is a risky pick. But this is another shot for UTSA, which already beat Illinois on Sept. 4, to build its Group of 5 buster profile. Sincere McCormick is an outstanding running back, too. This should be one of the more entertaining games of the day.
Illinois (+11.5) at Purdue
Illinois has a pair of one-score losses, and Purdue is coming off an emotional loss to Notre Dame. The Boilers might be without star receiver David Bell (concussion protocol). Illinois quarterback Brandon Peters struggled in his return last week. The spread looks too high, and it’s fitting this series is tied all time at 45. Still feels like a coin flip here, one the Illini can win.
Mike DeCourcy, senior writer
UAB (+4.5) at Tulane
We know if the Blazers were playing a team at the top of FBS (say, Georgia) there would be much to fear about investing any faith in them to do anything other that get obliterated. We know if the Blazers were matched against a team from the bottom of FBS (say, North Texas) they would most likely romp to a huge victory. But here is the hazard of early season wagering on a college team: How do they punch when matched against someone from their own weight class? That’s what UAB is up against this week.
Stanford (+5.5) vs. UCLA
Vegas wants us to believe the Cardinal’s win over Southern California was a fluke, the residue of Clay Helton’s presumed loss of the Trojans locker room. There is evidence to support that, but there’s also statistical affirmation of Tanner McKee’s promise as a major-college quarterback. He is hitting more than 70 percent of his passes and has five touchdowns and no interceptions. Yeah, that seems worth a shot.
No. 12 Notre Dame (+6.5) vs. No. 18 Wisconsin (Soldier Field)
There’s still much for Notre Dame to prove during an extremely difficult stretch of its schedule, in which the “easy game” was previously undefeated Purdue and the competition escalates with the Badgers, No. 8 Cincinnati and then Virginia Tech. The Irish still haven’t lost, though, and they’re getting nearly a touchdown at neutral Soldier Field in Chicago. On a week with few inviting upset picks, that’s too hard to ignore.
Bill Trocchi, senior editor
Syracuse (+6.5) vs. Liberty (Friday)
Liberty posts a fine NFL prospect at QB in Malik Willis, who has accounted for 11 touchdowns in three games thus far. Syracuse’s defense has been solid thus far, however, and if there’s one truism about college football betting -- take the home dog on a weeknight game (Louisville pulled it off last week).
No. 12 Notre Dame (+6.5) vs. No, 18 Wisconsin (Soldier Field)
This one is juicy for a number of reasons. ND quarterback Jack Coan is facing his former team and the young QB who beat him out, Graham Mertz. Brian Kelly is trying to pass Knute Rockne to become Notre Dame’s all-time wins leader. And we haven’t even gotten to the breakfast brats that will be consumed all morning before the 11 a.m. local kickoff.
NC State (+9.5) vs. Clemson
Clemson’s defense has yet to allow a touchdown this season, but NC State has only given up two, with one coming against Furman with two minutes to play and a 45-0 lead. A struggling Clemson offense is not going to get well against the Wolfpack. Maybe the home crowd gives NC State just enough offense to get it done.
Zac Al-Khateeb, content producer
No. 12 Notre Dame (+6.5) vs. No, 18 Wisconsin (Soldier Field)
Notre Dame hasn’t looked particularly competitive thus far this season, beating Florida State and Toledo by three points each before earning a two-touchdown win over Purdue. But Wisconsin transfer quarterback Jack Coan has kept the Fighting Irish in games, completing 62.6 percent of his passes for 828 yards and eight touchdowns. He’ll need another big game against the Badgers, considering his team’s struggles running the ball and his opponent’s nation-leading rush defense (33.0 yards per game). He makes the plays necessary for another narrow Notre Dame win.
No. 16 Arkansas (+5.5) vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (AT&T Stadium)
Arkansas looks like it’s playing its best football in a long time, and now faces its second big test of the season from Texas: Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies. Historically, Arkansas has played Texas A&M tough in Arlington, losing by no more than a touchdown in five of the last six neutral-site meetings. The distance between these teams looks closer than ever in 2021, especially with quarterback Zach Calzada replacing an injured Haynes King at A&M and KJ Jefferson looking like a true dual threat QB for Arkansas. Sam Pittman gets Arkansas another breakthrough win.
Mississippi State (+2.5) vs. LSU
The Bulldogs are coming off a game in which they were the unfortunate victims of an egregious officiating error, resulting in a loss to Memphis. How will that affect the way they come out against LSU, a team they beat 44-34 in 2020 under Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense? I’m guessing an angry, battle-tested Mississippi State — one that should still be undefeated — will try and take its frustrations out on LSU. The Tigers may have the same 2-1 record, but lost their only game against real competition this season (losing 38-27 to UCLA in the season opener).
