It was a quiet week for upsets in the Power 5 last week, but some serious money could have been made in the MAC. There were 15 upsets between Friday and Saturday in Week 8, but only three took place in the Power 5, where Duke, South Carolina and Oklahoma State won as underdogs. However, there were five upsets in the MAC alone, with Bowling Green, Buffalo, Ball State, Ohio and Western Michigan all pulling surprises.
The MAC is a very balanced conference with nine of the 12 teams sitting between 5-3 and 3-5 right now, so it is not a shock that bettors are having trouble figuring out the league. If you are on the hunt for an upset, which, of course, is our raison d’etre here at the Underdog Challenge, the MAC seems to be a great place to start.
Our rules of the Challenge: Our experts pick underdogs to win each week. If the upset hits, the expert gets as many points as the team was an underdog. Hats off to Mr. DeCourcy, who is 6-for-12 the past four weeks for an impressive 50 percent hit rate picking upsets. Those of you following him are cashing in on the moneyline.
MORE: Picks against the spread for Top 25 games
Here are the standings after Week 8.
| Record | Points | |
| Mike DeCourcy | 9-15 | 43.5 |
| Bill Trocchi | 5-19 | 37.5 |
| Bill Bender | 9-15 | 33.5 |
| Zac Al-Khateeb | 4-20 | 16 |
On to the upsets
Odds courtesy Caesar’s Sportsbook
Mike DeCourcy, senior writer
Baylor (+2.5) at Texas Tech
As the leading authority on the Underdog Challenge (check the scoreboard above!), I’m going to share: In two years of this exercise, this is by far the most brutal week in terms of locating dogs with upset potential. The spreads either are too thin to matter or, in the case of Cincinnati vs. UCF, outright pick-ems. There is little that inspires real conviction. Including this one. But the rules say I have to pick three. So this is one.
Nebraska (+7.5) vs. No. 17 Illinois
This game at least would be rewarding if it comes through, but the only aspect of this matchup that is appealing is being able to back an underdog at home. In fact, I’m kind of a believer in the Illini. They’ve won five in a row, the past three over serious Big Ten West opponents. (No, smarty, that is not an oxymoron). The Huskers at least have bounced back from the atrocious start that completed the process of Scott Frost’s inevitable dismissal. I think they can give this a shot.
No. 19 Kentucky (+12.5) at No. 3 Tennessee
Here’s a weird stat: Even as the Vols have struggled over the past decade, changing coaches like the rest of us brush our teeth, they’ve still won eight of their past 10 against the Wildcats. That’s an .800 winning percentage against an opponent that has spent that period celebrating its football revival under Mark Stoops. If UK football wants the respect it craves, does it need to turn that around, at least a little? And what could be a better time than with the Vols flying high with a top-5 ranking (and maybe looking ahead to that showdown with No. 1 Georgia?)
MORE: ESPN's Todd McShay breaks down Will Levis vs. Hendon Hooker
Bill Trocchi, senior editor
Florida International (+6.5) vs. Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is 0-4 on the road this season and has just one Conference-USA win, a 10-pointer against UTEP. Florida International is coming off a solid 34-15 win at Charlotte. I’m partial to home dogs on weeknights as well. Line opened at 9 and is dropping. Panthers take it.
Akron (+9) vs. Miami-Ohio
I had to pick a MAC game, right? The Zips have zip wins in the league to date, but three of their losses have been by one score. QB D.J. Irons averages 275 yards passing per game, good for No. 24 in the nation. Akron’s defense has been less-than-stellar, but the home team breaks through in this balanced league.
Northwestern (+11) at Iowa
Northwestern is terrible on both sides of the ball. Iowa is terrible on one side of the ball. The Wildcats have switched quarterbacks, and Brendan Sullivan had the Wildcats tied late in the fourth quarter at Maryland 24-24 last week. Alas, he then threw an interception. In a game expected to be this low-scoring, a bad bounce could decide it. I’ll take the 50 percent chance the ball bounces Northwestern’s way for 11 points.
Bill Bender, lead college football writer
Oklahoma State (+1.5) at Kansas State
We'll keep taking the Cowboys as an underdog. They are 6-0 ATS as an underdog since last season, and that includes four outright victories. The Wildcats have a quarterback question as Adrian Martinez left after the first possession against TCU last week and there has been no update on his status. There is no doubting Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders, who ranks seventh in the FBS with 340.3 yards of total offense per game.
Notre Dame (+2.5) at Syracuse
The Orange are coming off a tough and physical loss to Clemson. Remember when Notre Dame surprised BYU with a consistent run game and efficient game behind Drew Pyne? Look for that to happen here, and the Irish build some momentum heading into a Week 10 showdown with Clemson.
Coastal Carolina (+2.5) at Marshall
These teams get the NFL Network spotlight. This won't be an easy road game for the Chanticleers, but we like that they had the bye week to recalibrate from the loss to Old Dominion. Grayson McCall bounces back against the Thundering Herd's tough defense, which leads the Sun Belt at 284.4 yards per game. We'll trust the better offense in a thriller.
Zac Al-Khateeb, content producer
Virginia (+2) vs. Miami
This pick has less to do with the way Virginia is playing and more to do with the way Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes look six games into the season. Miami is coming off an atrocious eight-turnover game in which it lost 45-21 to Duke, prompting Cristobal to publicly lambast his players' effort. That follows similarly poor outings against Texas A&M and, more notably, Middle Tennessee State. This doesn’t feel like a problem that gets fixed this year, resulting in more losses — like the one I expect the Hurricanes to take on Saturday vs. the Cavaliers.
No. 20 Cincinnati (+1.5) at UCF
Hand it to Luke Fickell: He led his team from a disappointing season-opening loss to Arkansas and now has his team back in the thick of the New Year’s Day 6 bowl conversation. The Bearcats have two straight wins of four points or fewer. Depending on how you look at it, this team has trouble overcoming “lesser” competition, or knows how to win close games. I’m taking the latter approach as the Bearcats take on a Knights team that appeared to get caught looking ahead to this matchup in a 34-13 loss to ECU.
No. 9 Oklahoma State (+1.5) at No. 22 Kansas State
Oklahoma State’s Big 12 championship and fringe College Football Playoff hopes hinge on this game. The Cowboys have a noted history of blowing such contests, but I’m picking Mike Gundy and Co. to pull it off this week based on their defensive performance against Texas in Week 8. Oklahoma State beat the Longhorns 41-34, holding them to 3-of-17 on third-down conversion attempts and forcing three Quinn Ewers interceptions (including one in each of Texas’ two final drives). Oklahoma State can’t get caught in an emotional letdown, but I have the feeling Gundy won’t let that happen.
