On a day when the college football world shook with great games and greater celebrations, an upset that would have made some serious noise fell by the wayside: Stanford 16, Notre Dame 14.
It was a result inside Notre Dame Stadium that snapped over 12 months of futility for the Cardinal against FBS competition. And it produced this remarkable stat, courtesy of ESPN’s Chris Fallica.
There have been ten instances this season of a team favored by greater than 16 points losing at home. Notre Dame is the only team to have it happen twice.
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) October 17, 2022
So the Irish have given us two of the biggest point-getters here in our contest this year, but our panel did not see either in advance. The Underdog Challenge scoring system is as follows – your underdog must win outright. If it does, you get as many points as it was getting as an underdog.
Boston College knocking off 15.5-point favorite Louisville is the biggest call of the year to date from our experts, and as a group we’ve had 23 correct calls that would have hit not only against the spread but on the money line as well.
We have a new leader after seven weeks of action:
| Name | Record | Points |
| Mike DeCourcy | 7-14 | 32 |
| Bill Trocchi | 4-17 | 28.5 |
| Bill Bender | 8-13 | 27.5 |
| Zac Al-Khateeb | 4-17 | 16 |
On to the upsets
Odds courtesy Caesar’s Sportsbook
Mike DeCourcy, senior writer
No. 11 Oklahoma State (+6.5) vs. No. 20 Texas
Take a screenshot of that scoreboard that says I’m in first place, because I certainly never expected to be in that position and don’t know it will happen again. I’d like to quit the competition now, exit on top, especially after getting a look at this week’s possibilities. It is not a rich week for home underdogs, which is where I like to find candidates for upsets, but there’ll be a whole army of Pokes fans in the building as they try to keep their men alive in the Big 12 Conference race. If they lose this one, it’s over. So they can’t lose this one.
Pitt (+2.5) at Louisville
A weird Pitt season to date would get flat-out bizarre if the Panthers aren’t able to win on the road over the Cardinals. Remember, they pushed Tennessee into overtime, even with their starting QB injured. And now Tennessee is more or less on top of the college football world. The Panthers also lost to a Georgia Tech team that just got done firing its coach. So what are these Panthers, then? They will tell everyone in Louisville.
East Carolina (+5) vs. UCF
The school previously known as Central Florida, also previously known as the dominant program in the American, has designs on supplanting the Cincinnati Bearcats on top of that mountain. (It’s not a Himalayas-high mountain, like in the SEC, but still a mountain). If the Pirates are going to get this done, it’ll probably need to be one of those games that resembles basketball as much as anything: Everybody’s going to score points, but who can get the last, big stop?
Bill Trocchi, senior editor
Duke (+9) at Miami
What exactly has Miami done to deserve to be a nine-point favorite? Canes have a six-point win over Virginia Tech (2-5) and three losses before that. Duke played North Carolina to the buzzer last week, a Carolina team that won at Miami. Duke is the better team this year.
West Virginia (+7) at Texas Tech
Texas Tech has a good win over Texas, but that comes with an asterisk as quarterback Quinn Ewers was recovering from an injury and paying parking tickets. WVU quarterback JT Daniels and TTU quarterback Donovan Smith almost have identical numbers across the board, except Smith has seven INTs to Daniels’ three. West Virginia is coming off a 43-40 win over Baylor last Thursday and is ranked two spots ahead of Texas Tech in the Sagarin ratings. That probably means nothing, but makes me feel better about the pick.
Vanderbilt (+14) at Missouri
The Commodores resume their season after a three-week beatdown from Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia. They have one upset under their belt, though winning at Northern Illinois a little easier than at Missouri. Still, Vanderbilt has a capable QB-WR tandem in A.J. Swann (8 TDs, 0 INTs) and Will Sheppard (8 TDs). Missouri has suffered close losses against good competition, but it is only averaging 16 points a game against Power 5 competition. Vanderbilt pulls out a shocker.
Bill Bender, lead college football writer
No. 7 Ole Miss (+2) at LSU
This line has bounced around all week, but we trust that Ole Miss running game on the road at Death Valley. The Rebels beat LSU 31-17 last year, and Lane Kiffin will lean on Quinshon Judkins and Zachary Evans. That causes the Tigers too many problems. The Rebels keep their perfect season alive.
Purdue (+2.5) at Wisconsin
This won't get as much attention as Tennessee last week, but the Boilermakers are poised to break a 15-game losing streak to Wisconsin that stretches back to 2003. Purdue is on a four-game win streak since the last-minute loss to Syracuse, and Aidan O'Connell has three 300-yard games in that stretch. It's another close one, but the Boilermakers stay ahead in the Big Ten West race.
No. 11 Oklahoma State (+6) vs. No. 20 Texas
There is a lot of momentum for Texas here, especially because of quarterback Quinn Ewers. This game still is in Stillwater, and the Cowboys have covered as an underdog five straight times since last season. That includes three straight-up wins. Spencer Sanders can make some plays, too. Oklahoma State bounces back at home.
Zak Al-Khateeb, content producer
Kansas (+9) at Baylor
I picked the Jayhawks to beat what I thought was a reeling Oklahoma team; the Sooners got back on track with an impressive offensive performance to win 52-42, but it never felt as if the Jayhawks were getting blown out of the water. They still put up 42 points and forced three turnovers in the defeat. Maybe I didn’t learn my lesson the first time, but I’ll look for Lance Leipold and Kansas to turn it around (again) vs. a 3-3 Baylor team. The question is, will Jalon Daniels or Jason Bean be in at quarterback?
No. 9 UCLA (+6) at No. 10 Oregon
I rarely pick outcomes among top-10 opponents, mostly because the high stakes can produce some wonky results. That said, I feel confident Chip Kelly will get his first win over his former program when he and the Bruins head to Eugene, Ore.. UCLA is coming off consecutive wins over No. 15 Washington and No. 11 Utah, plus had an extra bye week to rest up and prepare for Oregon. Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is playing like a dark horse Heisman candidate, and will continue to do so in a win.
No. 7 Ole Miss (+2) at LSU
Lane Kiffin and the undefeated Rebels will head to Baton Rouge for a game that has massive implications in the SEC West; the loser will be at a significant disadvantage moving forward, with Alabama still on both teams’ schedules. That obviously hasn’t escaped the attention of Kiffin or Brian Kelly, who has helped lead LSU back from a poor start to the season with some hard-fought wins. Then why am I picking Ole Miss in the hostile confines of Tiger Stadium? I have more faith in Kiffin’s offense (especially in stellar runners Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans) to outproduce the Tigers.
