We love our upsets here at the Underdog Challenge. Mild upsets, landscape-altering upsets, hot-seat-creating upsets — we love ‘em all.
So which team has been the master of the money-line thus far this year? Yep, those lovable Kansas Jayhawks, who have three already this season, more than any other team. Big 12 brother Baylor pulled off five upsets in 2021, second only to Utah State, so maybe it has something to do with a conference that stretches 1,466 miles from Morgantown, W.V., to Lubbock, Texas.
KU has a chance for upset No. 4 this week against struggling Oklahoma, where the Jayhawks are getting over a touchdown.
MORE: Picks against the spread for every Top 25 game | Bowl projections
To review our Underdog Challenge rules, our experts select three upsets each week. If the upset hits, the expert gets the amount of points the underdog was getting against the spread. More risk, more reward. Here are our standings.
| Name | Record | Points |
| Bill Trocchi | 4-14 | 28.5 |
| Bill Bender | 7-11 | 24 |
| Mike DeCourcy | 5-13 | 18 |
| Zac Al-Khateeb | 4-14 | 16 |
On to the picks.
Odds courtesy Caesars Sportsbook
Bill Trocchi, senior editor
Navy (+12.5) at SMU
Navy has quietly been playing well, winning at East Carolina, staying within a field goal of Air Force and then pounding Tulsa 53-21. The arrow is pointing up for the Middies. Meanwhile, SMU is on a three-game losing streak and its lofty season goals have been dashed. Expect Navy to grind one out in Dallas on Friday night.
Kansas (+9) at Oklahoma
Heck yeah, I’m taking Kansas. I know starting QB Jalon Daniels is out for a while, but sub Jason Bean looked really, really good against TCU. That might have been KU’s best game of the season, despite the loss. The Sooners, on the other hand? Well, if they can drastically improve their offense and defense, they should be fine.
Indiana (+11.5) vs. Maryland
This one looks like a long shot, with Indiana on a three-game losing streak and Taulia Tagovailoa having another solid year at QB for the Terps. But the Hoosiers played Michigan tough last week (it was 17-10 into the fourth quarter) and I don’t trust Maryland on the road in the Big Ten. The Terps are 4-10 in league road games under Mike Locksley. The Hoosiers make it 4-11.
MORE: Q&A with Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren
Bill Bender, lead college football writer
No. 7 USC (+3.5) at No. 20 Utah
This is a tough road test for first-year coach Lincoln Riley, but after watching UCLA rip off several chunk plays against Utah, this pick is a little more comfortable to make. Caleb Williams will take advantage of the prime-time stage, and the Trojans will continue to make their Pac-12 playoff push.
N.C. State (+3.5) at No. 18 Syracuse
The line has moved down from its open despite the fact N.C. State quarterback Devin Leary might not be available. Can you trust Jack Chambers in that event? The Wolfpack have won three of their last four at Syracuse, and that defense will travel. N.C. State pulls out a narrow escape, perhaps on a last-second field goal.
Nebraska (+14) at Purdue
Mickey Joseph is 2-1 as the Huskers interim coach, and he could make a serious push for the full-time job here. Scott Frost was 2-3 against the Boilermakers, but none of the last five meetings were decided by more than 14 points. Nebraska will make this interesting and could pull this off.
Mike DeCourcy, senior writer
No. 6 Tennessee (+7.5) vs. No. 3 Alabama
Usually in the process of compiling these picks, I’ll find maybe a half-dozen games that raise an eyebrow, that are inviting enough for consideration. This week there are so many games that are appealing that it was hard to choose among them. But this was at the top of the list. The Vols never have beaten Nick Saban’s Alabama, and if they let that become an issue, then I’ll be wrong and they’ll lose. But let’s be honest: Tennessee hasn’t been close to this good in the Saban era. The last time they won double-digit games was 2007. The last time they lost fewer than three games was 2001. Saban was in only his second season at LSU then, still a couple years away from his first dominant Tigers team. This is the most promising game in this “rivalry” in a generation. It’s hard to imagine the Vols letting this get away (though it’s easy to picture Saban just taking it from them).
TROCCHI: Vols are ready for their moment against Alabama
No. 24 Illinois (+6.5) over Minnesota
The Illini revival has been so invigorating that head men’s basketball coach Brad Underwood found himself talking football Tuesday at Big Ten basketball media day. He told us that if Bret Bielema couldn’t get Illinois football going, then probably no one could. (In case you hadn’t noticed, it’s going.) And still, playing at home, with a 5-1 record and four-game winning streak, the Illini are nearly a touchdown underdog to the Golden Gophers. No doubt Minnesota is a fine team. But it’s homecoming this weekend at Memorial Stadium. The forecast for Saturday at kickoff should place the temperature at a brisk 50 degrees or so. That place is going to be lit.
No. 7 USC (+3.5) at No. 20 Utah
I'm still not convinced the Trojans aren't good enough to make the College Football Playoff, and you're going to give me points? Is Caleb Williams OK? He is? Cool. I'm extremely grateful to accept your generosity, Vegas. If you're giving, I'm taking. I say the Trojans' suitability for the CFP will be decided by their rivals, and Utah has not been around long enough in the Pac-12 to rise to that level.
Zac Al-Khateeb, content producer
No. 19 Kansas (+9) at Oklahoma
If the names on Kansas’ jerseys read “Oklahoma” instead, then the Jayhawks would be favored by double digits in this game. As it stands, Lance Leipold can get his team bowl-eligible with a win that will resonate in the program, regardless of the Sooners’ struggles this year. Jalon Daniels likely won’t play, but backup Jason Bean — a starter of nine games in 2021 — rallied for a near-comeback win vs. TCU in Week 6, completing 16 of 24 passes for 262 yards. Kansas rallies against a Sooners team that has allowed 48.3 points per game in conference play.
No. 8 Oklahoma State (+4) at No. 13 TCU
The Cowboys and Horned Frogs are two of three remaining unbeaten teams in Big 12 play. TCU, of course, is coming off a game in which it nearly allowed the Jayhawks’ backup quarterback to lead a game-tying scoring drive late in the game. Regardless, it’s on Mike Gundy to keep his team focused a week after it outlasted Texas Tech in a 41-31 shootout. Look for Spencer Sanders to use his arm and legs in another close victory over the Horned Frogs, setting up an even bigger test vs. Texas the following week.
No. 7 USC (+3.5) at No. 20 Utah
If USC beats Utah, then the Pac-12 essentially becomes a two-team race between it and the Oregon-UCLA winner, all while setting up a potential 10-0 start for the Trojans — a fact that can’t be lost on first-year coach Lincoln Riley. This is the first true test of the season for Caleb Williams, Jordan Addison and others, many of whom transferred to USC to win games such as these. UCLA in Week 6 proved Utah’s defense isn’t infallible in a 42-32 win; the Trojans’ offense is better on paper, but it’s on them to put it all together before a timely bye.
