We look for upsets here at the Underdog Challenge. And last week, the upsets were coming out of the ACC.
Georgia Tech fired Geoff Collins on Monday, then went to No. 24 Pitt as 21.5-point underdogs on Saturday and pulled off the stunner absolutely no one saw coming. Tech took home a 26-21 win.
Boston College limped into a home matchup with Louisville at 1-3 off a 30-point loss to Florida State. It was a 15.5-point underdog, but thanks in part to a fourth-quarter injury to Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham, BC slipped away with a 34-33 upset.
MORE: Picks against the spread for Week 6 Top 25 games | Bowl projections
And Wake Forest, a seven-point dog at Florida State, a place where it had not won since 2008, gave the ACC a trio of significant upsets with a 31-21 win.
Other notable shockers from Week 5? UConn was a 19.5-point dog against Fresno State and picked up the win, its first home victory over an FBS team since beating Tulsa in 2017. FIU won as a 16-point underdog at New Mexico State.
MORE: Betting trends for Alabama-Texas A&M | Kansas-TCU
Where will the upsets come from this week? As a reminder of how the contest works, if the upsets predicted below hit, the expert gets as many points as the team was an underdog.
| Place | Name | Record | Points |
| 1. | Bill Trocchi | 3-12 | 25 |
| 2. | Bill Bender | 5-10 | 17.5 |
| 3. | Mike DeCourcy | 4-11 | 15 |
| 4. | Zac Al-Khateeb | 3-12 | 12.5 |
On to the upsets
Odds courtesy Caesars Sportsbook
Bill Trocchi, Senior editor
Northwestern (+10) vs. Wisconsin
Banking on the dysfunction at Wisconsin, which shockingly fired three-time Big Ten West winner Paul Chryst after a 2-3 start. Georgia Tech banded together after Geoff Collins was let go, but this was more shocking and there seems to be more chaos in Madison.
Washington State (+11) at No. 6 USC
One of my usual keys in shooting for a big upset (Northwestern aside) is making sure there is a quarterback in place capable of pulling it off. Cam Ward is one of those guys at Wazzu. Colleague Bill Bender says he doesn’t see any unbeatens in the College Football Playoff this year. Is there where USC stumbles?
North Carolina (+3.5) at Miami
Shouldn’t this line be flipped? Sure, Miami had an off week to regroup from that embarrassing loss to Middle Tennessee, but North Carolina is the better team at this point. The Canes have really not shown anything yet. Tyler Van Dyke will get the start after being benched against MTSU.
Bill Bender, lead college football writer
Purdue (+3) at Maryland
Aidan O'Connell was shaky in his return last week, but the Boilermakers still upset Minnesota. Maryland is an improved team around Taulia Tagovailoa, but with these offenses, it can become a coin-flip game in the fourth quarter. We are going to trust O'Connell to lead the game-winning drive.
North Carolina (+3.5) at Miami
The Hurricanes had a week to shake off the Middle Tennessee State loss, so expect a better effort this week. North Carolina's offense is clicking around Drake Maye, and the Hurricanes won't be able to keep up for four quarters. The Tar Heels have won the last three meetings in this series.
Oklahoma (+7) vs. Texas
It's tough to trust the Sooners after last week's collapse, but this is the Red River Rivalry. We don't know who either team is starting at quarterback right now. It could be Dillon Gabriel or Davis Beville for Oklahoma and Hudson Card or Quinn Ewers for Texas. The Sooners have won the last three meetings by eight points or less, and we expect a close one no matter what.
Mike DeCourcy, senior writer
Iowa (+3.5) at Illinois
A 4-1 start and decisive victory against Wisconsin helped lead to a general feeling the Illini could be a Big Ten West contender … and to this line. I’m not sold, though, that the team that otherwise has beaten only Virginia and Wyoming (a combined 4-6 against FBS opposition) suddenly has blossomed into a force. The Hawkeyes got cleaned out by Michigan most recently, but Michigan will do that to many. And the Iowa offense is showing so much more life – which is to say, it’s no longer dead – and the D remains sturdy enough to hold up against the Illini.
Stanford (+7) vs. Oregon State
The Cardinal have lost every high-major game they’ve played, but in their defense, they might have opened against the three best teams in the Pac-12. His teammates haven’t done the best job of protecting quarterback Tanner McGee, but the Beavers have only five sacks as a team all year. I’ll admit I had to double-check this line because Stanford at home getting a touchdown against a team that allowed 41 points a week ago seems overly generous. It may be a trap, but I can’t resist the opportunity.
Houston (+3) at Memphis
There may be no more disappointing team in college football than the Cougars, and that’s not disappointing to many who grew weary of coach Dana Holgorsen’s act over the past decade. He has tried to get by on that brash/cocky vibe that’s fueled Lane Kiffin for so long, only with not as much snarky humor and a good deal less football success. The Cougars haven’t been good enough to beat the good teams it’s faced – Kansas, Texas Tech, Tulane (I guess?) – but if they’d played the same list of cupcakes as Memphis, they’d be 4-1, too.
Zac Al-Khateeb, content producer
North Carolina (+3.5) at Miami
Nothing Miami has done this season is indicative of a team that knows how to win against equal or better — or worse — competition. The Hurricanes are coming off consecutive losses to Texas A&M and Middle Tennessee State, games in which the offense and defense both displayed bad football. And while Miami had a bye to get its act together, I don’t think that will matter much against North Carolina, considering Drake Maye (1,594 yards, 19 touchdowns to one interception) is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the country. North Carolina will advance to 5-1 on the season while Miami slumps to 2-3.
Northwestern (+10) vs. Wisconsin
This is a tough game to pick, considering Northwestern hasn’t looked good amid a 1-4 start. But neither has Wisconsin, which prompted the program to make the shocking decision to move on from Paul Chryst after a consistent tenure with some notable high points. That’s why this game sticks out to me: Will the Badgers rally around interim coach Jim Leonhard, or will the distractions that come with Chryst’s firing cause them to slip? I’m not entirely certain the latter happens — but I’m painfully aware of my last-place status in the Underdog Challenge, and need some points to vault me back into contention.
Missouri (+11) over Florida
Missouri is coming off back-to-back heartbreakers, losing 17-14 in overtime to Auburn off a goal-line fumble and giving up a late go-ahead touchdown in a 26-22 loss to No. 2 Georgia. The ball has to bounce the other way some time, right? Enter Florida, which despite some notable play this season, has been largely inconsistent week-to-week. The Gators are coming off a 52-17 win over Eastern Washington, but weren’t impressive vs. Kentucky and made too many mistakes vs. Tennessee. Florida is better than Missouri, which needed to play a near-perfect game to take Georgia to the brink. But the Tigers won’t need that to beat the Gators.
