Middle Tennessee, we didn’t see you coming.
The Blue Raiders torched Miami last week 45-32 as 25.5-point underdogs, showing once again that big upsets will happen across the college landscape. There were four double-digit dogs who knocked off favored opponents in Week 4. Kansas State was a 13.5-point underdog and went into Oklahoma and won 41-34. Southern Miss was a 12-point underdog at Tulane, which had just beaten Kansas State the week prior, and got the win. And Navy slipped past East Carolina in overtime as a 16.5-point underdog.
Is there a trend to be spotted other than all four teams being on the road? If there is, our panel will surely spot it this week as we rebound from a rather terrible showing in Week 4.
MORE: Picks against the spread for every Week 5 Top 25 game
In our contest, we pick three underdogs each week to win the game. Should they prevail, the expert receives the amount of points the team was an underdog. So more risk, more reward (we see you, Middle Tennessee!).
| Place | Name | Record | Points |
| 1. | Bill Bender | 5-7 | 17.5 |
| 2. | Mike DeCourcy | 3-9 | 11.5 |
| 3. | Zac Al-Khateeb | 1-11 | 3.5 |
| 4. | Bill Trocchi | 1-11 | 2.5 |
On to the upsets.
Odds courtesy Caesars Sportsbook
Bill Bender, lead college football writer
No. 17 Texas A&M (+3.5) at Mississippi State
The Aggies cannot look ahead to Alabama, not against quarterback Will Rogers, who is tied for the national lead in touchdown passes with 16. Texas A&M needs to be the move ball more efficiently, and they will against the Bulldogs’ defense. Texas A&M hasn’t used all nine lives yet, but they find another escape in Starkville. Bring on the Crimson Tide.
Michigan State (+8.5) at Maryland
This line keeps moving up in the Terps’ direction, but the Spartans are due for a bounce-back performance after losses to Washington and Minnesota. At least they better be. Maryland allows 149.5 yards per game on the ground. Both teams are bad on defense, which means this will be a shootout. The Spartans find a way to avoid a third straight loss.
Ohio (+11) at Kent State
This is the second shot on the alma mater, and it’s against my wife’s alma mater. I have the lead in this challenge, so why not? The Golden Flashes are coming off a brutal non-conference schedule that ended with Georgia last week, and the Bobcats average 30 points per game. Ohio has not stopped anybody yet, but the last three matchups have been one-score games. I like the cover, so I’ll ask for the upset, too.
Mike DeCourcy, senior writer
Kansas (+3.5) vs. Iowa State
However such decisions are made, it’s apparent the betting public or Vegas or the sharps or whomever — they are not buying the Jayhawks’ undefeated start. Which I would understand if KU’s next assignment were on the road at Texas or Oklahoma. Or even at Iowa State. But this is a home game, people. And the Jayhawks are getting points? After standing up to Duke last weekend? Look, no one is saying the Blue Devils are the Michigan blue, but that was a heck of a win. I say KU gets another in this one.
No. 17 Texas A&M (+3.5) at Mississippi State
Indeed, the rush to anoint the Aggies as the Alabama of this decade has turned out to be premature. But they’ve beaten two high-major opponents since the App State embarrassment, while a lot of big-timers still haven’t yet encountered two high majors. There still is so much to resolve for the Aggies, but this will represent one step back on the road to making A&M fans forget App State ever happened. (The rest of the college football world will remember forever.)
Auburn (+9) vs. LSU
Look, Auburn is flat out not good. And it would appear the (AU) Tigers used up all their good mojo on the ridiculous sequence of events that allowed them to escape their game against the (Missouri) Tigers with an overtime victory. But weird stuff happens in sports sometimes, and it just feels like this will be another such episode. With nearly every college football reporter already finished with the “Harsin fired!” articles and just waiting for it to be made official before publishing, wouldn’t it be wild if he postponed that outcome again?
BENDER: Why its good business to fire coaches early
Zac Al-Khateeb, content producer
No. 9 Oklahoma State (+2) at No. 16 Baylor
The Cowboys enter this game coming off a bye, which gives Mike Gundy and Co. ample time to prepare for the team that cost them a Big 12 championship and, potentially, a berth in the College Football Playoff in 2021. So while Oklahoma State sat at home, Baylor scratched out a tough 31-24 win over Iowa State. Perhaps I’m overstating the benefit of a bye week — but I’d be willing to bet Gundy had his team laser-focused on taking down the Bears. Look for quarterback Spencer Sanders to lead a points-heavy win over Baylor.
No. 22 Wake Forest (+7) at No. 23 Florida State
Is Florida State for real under third-year coach Mike Norvell? A game vs. No. 22 Wake Forest and its high-powered offense will be telling. The Seminoles have looked good with Jordan Travis under center, and that sets up a potentially explosive battle with Demon Deacons counterpart Sam Hartman, who has 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. Wake is at risk of coming into this game flat following a double-overtime loss to Clemson — but the fact the Demon Deacons kept it so close with the No. 5 team in the nation should lend confidence to a team looking to rebound.
Indiana (+5) at Nebraska
Nebraska is in Week 2 of the Mickey Joseph interim era, two weeks following the firing of Scott Frost. The Cornhuskers are 1-3 and have simply not looked good in any of their games, including their lone victory, a 38-17 win over North Dakota. It’s hard to say what kind of mentality Nebraska has going into the remainder of the season. If they could get a win in Big Ten play vs. Indiana — their first in nearly a calendar year — it would be massive for the team. I just don’t think that win’s coming vs. the Hoosiers.
Bill Trocchi, senior editor
Boston College (+15.5) vs. Louisville
I’m taking some big swings this week to get back in this thing. Theory: Boston College isn’t this bad, is it? Also, theory: Louisville has not looked great on the road. Hey, hard to justify a 15.5-point dog, but upsets happen.
No. 22 Wake Forest (+7) at No. 23 Florida State
Are we overvaluing Florida State’s dominant win over Boston College? Wake Forest outplayed Clemson last week and could do the same against the Seminoles. With quarterback Sam Hartman at the controls and an offensive line that gives him time, the Deacs have the firepower to outscore Florida State.
Iowa (+11) vs. No. 4 Michigan
Yep, it is not wise to bank on a quarterback who ranks 14th out of 14 in the Big Ten in passer rating and has just one touchdown pass this season. However, the history of this series is in the Hawkeyes’ favor, at least. They’ve won the past four in Iowa City, and they’ve won four of their past five matchups against Top 5 teams in the friendly confines.
