While the rather unappealing Week 3 slate didn't lend itself to any major upsets, we did see several heavy favorites (Florida State, Georgia, Alabama, and Colorado) struggle to gain margin on inferior competition. Does that mean we're in store for some madness this week? Let's keep our fingers crossed.
As a reminder of how the Underdog Challenge works, our experts pick three underdogs to win outright (not just cover the spread). They then earn points equal to the number of points those teams got on the spread if their upsets come to fruition.
All it takes is one double-digit underdog winning outright to separate yourself from the pack, but at the moment, we've got a three-horse race. It's only a matter of time until Trocchi and Bender make this thing interesting.
| Place | Name | Record | Points |
| 1. | Mike DeCourcy | 2-4 | 15 |
| 2. | Edward Sutelan | 2-4 | 13 |
| 3. | Nick Musial | 3-3 | 11.5 |
| T4. | Bill Trocchi | 0-6 | 0 |
| T4. | Bill Bender | 0-6 | 0 |
MORE: Week 4 against the spread picks for Top 25
On to the upsets.
All odds courtesy of BetMGM. Click HERE to sign up!
Mike DeCourcy, Senior writer
Pitt (+7.5) over North Carolina
That the line on this game is basically a touchdown tells me that those behind the number believe the Panthers are a threat to pull this off. Because, let’s be honest, if this spread were being established by performance alone, the Tar Heels might be 222-point favorites. The Panthers have been unfathomably poor to this point. But after a week in which coach Pat Narduzzi rewrote the book on how not to handle being booed at home – Hint: If you’re struggling to draw 50 percent of capacity, don’t call the home fans “Boo City” – maybe there won’t be as much reason to jeer.
BYU (+9.5) over Kansas
Think the Panthers might not like to have Kedon Slovis back? Since graduating and transferring from Pitt, he has played two games in a BYU uniform and is averaging 220 yards and 2 touchdowns. And, indeed, his team is 3-0. There even was a tweet from a Pitt fan’s account this week that simply said: “Dear Kedon Slovis: I’m sorry we blamed you.” As nice as life has been in the BYU offense, going into Kansas and doing something similar to what happened last week at Arkansas will be much more difficult. (The only reason I’m comfortable writing that sentence is I’ve spent more of my career writing about basketball).
Memphis (+6.5) over Missouri
For all the great games there are on the board this week, it feels like not the best week for upsets. There just weren’t many games that spoke to me, honestly. So I’m left grabbing at a matchup that feels less promising just to fulfill the requirements to pick three games each week. There’s only one thing that’s certain here, and it’s this: A sloppy performance on the order of what the Memphis brand of Tigers delivered against Navy will not be sufficient. Oh wait, there’s one other thing that’s true about this matchup: Memphis barbecue > Kansas City barbecue. Every time.
BENDER: Whis is Notre Dame wearing green jerseys?
Bill Trocchi, Senior editor
Notre Dame (+3) over Ohio State
Give me the Green Machine in this one. Quarterback play can make the difference, and this is why Sam Hartman transferred to Notre Dame. By all accounts, he’s done everything he can to soak up this one-year gig, he was voted captain, he’s played well in the warm-up games and now he gets his chance to show scouts what he can do in a pro offense against future pros. Everything has pointed to this moment for him. If the O-line gives him even slightly above-average protection, ND is going to be in great shape. The line needs to feed off the emotion in the stadium and just let Sammy Heisman take care of the rest. The Irish fans will storm and move to 5-0.
MORE BENDER: Heisman Trophy watch
Washington State (+3) vs. Oregon State
Pac-2 championship on the line here. Does the winner get to raise a banner? Another home dog here. Oregon State won 24-10 last year. Big contrast in styles, as Oregon State had 47 rushing attempts last year, while Wazzu QB Cam Ward threw 54 passes. Side note – Ward is completing 72 percent of his passes and is averaging 330 yards per game with 9 TDs and 0 INTs. He is the SIXTH-rated QB in the Pac-12. Wazzu beat Wisconsin already at home. Close one, but Coogs pull the upset.
Sam Houston State (+12.5) at Houston
Sam Houston State is going to get someone this year. The Bearkats have not been an offensive juggernaut to date (a mind-numbing 132.5 yards per game, which is 100 yards worse than the second-worst team in the nation), but the defense ranks 12th and only gave up 14 points to BYU and 13 points to Air Force. It might not be this week, but SHS is going to have some sort of pick-six, kickoff return, blocked punt situation that is going to lead to a big upset at some point, and Houston isn’t exactly clicking right now.
Bill Bender, Lead college football writer
Clemson (+2.5) over Florida State
The Tigers have something to prove after a miserable showing against Duke on Labor Day weekend, and Cade Klubnik has settled in with two home starts. Jordan Travis had 318 total yards and three TDs in last year's game, but this one is at Death Valley. This is a coin-flip game, and we'll stick with the team that has won the last seven games in the series.
Washington State (+3) over Oregon State
This line has ticked up a half point, which favors the Beavers — who beat Washington State 24-10 last season. It's a contrast in styles, but the difference time this is a more efficient Cam Ward. It's a tight quarterback battle with DJ Uiagalelei, but we'll take the value with the home team in what should be a fantastic Pac-12 matchup.
BYU (+9.5) over Kansas
The Cougars beat Arkansas last week. Why not pull another upset in their Big 12 opener? Kedon Slovis is a veteran quarterback, and the defense allows just 15.7 points per game. It's a challenge to slow down Jalon Daniels and a high-powered Kansas attack, but the Cougars are up for it on the road. BYU is 5-3 S/U as an underdog since 2020. We'll take those odds.
Edward Sutelan, Digital content producer
Washington State (+3) over Oregon State
There are a plethora of exciting games this week, particularly in the Pac-12, and because of that the Cougars and Beavers will fly under the radar. But Cam Ward vs. DJ Uiagalelei is about as good a quarterback battle as you'll get in Week 4. Washington State has been tested more to this point in the season, and that experience could be the difference in an offensive showdown.
Ole Miss (+7) over Alabama
It feels wrong to pick against Alabama twice in a year. It feels even worse to do it twice. But the Crimson Tide as seven-point favorites over Ole Miss? With all their offensive dysfunction? The Rebels head into Tuscaloosa without any uncertainty at quarterback and with a head coach motivated to stick it to his former employer after a disappointing loss in Oxford in 2022.
Western Kentucky (+3.5) over Troy
The Hilltoppers were the victims of a "get well" game for Ohio State before the Buckeyes went on to face Notre Dame. But don't let that 63-10 drubbing in Columbus distract from the fact this is still one of the nation's best passing offenses led by Austin Reed. Troy has been solid against the pass this year, but it has been turnover prone which plays right into Western Kentucky's strengths on defense.
Nick Musial, Content producer
BYU (+9.5) over Kansas
Yes, I'm picking against my alma mater, but it's the classic emotional hedge. Does Kansas deserve to be nearly a double-digit favorite in a conference game? We shall see, but KU's Week 3 result, a non-cover as 28-point road favorites against Nevada 31-24, is concerning. Can the Jayhawks' offense do its thing against a steady BYU defense? Puka Nacua U wins outright in its first Big 12 conference game.
Iowa (+14.5) over Penn State
Taking Iowa to upset Penn State under the lights at Beaver Stadium is borderline insane, but jeez, 14.5 points would be a nice boost in the standings. I still have some concerns about Penn State QB Drew Allar, and you know what you're going to get with Iowa's defense. A positive turnover margin in favor of the Hawkeyes could result in a shocking final score Saturday night in Happy Valley.
UCLA (+7.5) over Utah
Is Cam Rising going to play? That's the deciding factor in this one. Anyway, I'll side with Chip Kelly's bunch, thinking a Dante Moore-led offense manufactures enough scoring drives to leave Rice-Eccles undefeated.
