TCU had a clear job heading into the Big 12 Championship against Kansas State: Win and play in the playoffs.
It fell short of that goal in heart-breaking fashion Saturday, dropping the championship game in overtime to the Wildcats 31-28 to finish the regular season 12-1 and invite doubt about their College Football Playoff chances.
With USC also losing on Friday, the discussion will be centered around Ohio State, Alabama, and TCU, who could still backdoor their way into the playoff.
It will all come down to what the committee values. Should TCU be punished and jumped by two teams for playing in a championship while Ohio State and Alabama stayed home? Or does the disparity in conference schedules mean TCU had to go undefeated this season?
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We won't know for certain until the playoff rankings are unveiled on Sunday. But there's going to be a lot of discussion about what this ultimately means for the CFP.
What does TCU loss mean for CFP hopefuls?
Ohio State
TCU and USC's losses are outstanding news for the fifth-ranked Buckeyes. With them finishing 11-1 on the season and dropping just one game to the No. 2 seed, it's going to be extremely difficult to leave Ohio State out of the playoff conversation.
The Buckeyes, despite their brutal loss to Michigan in The Game, still have a solid overall resume with wins over No. 8 (Penn State) and No. 21 (Notre Dame), with the latter coming out of the conference.
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Despite its loss to Michigan, going 2-1 against ranked teams will likely get Ohio State in over one-loss TCU and two-loss USC, who aren't exactly part of the conversation at this point.
It's hard to argue against Ohio State being in at this point. The biggest question is where it will land.
Alabama
For Alabama, it's less clear-cut.
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Should one-loss TCU (who played an extra game) be left out in the cold for two-loss Alabama, which didn't make its conference championship?
This is the fundamental question that will be asked for the Crimson Tide. Both resumes are impressive in their own right. The problem is, TCU's wins looked more impressive at the time they occurred. Their lone ranked wins were against Kansas State, whom they now have a loss against and Texas, which they share with Alabama.
Alabama also has a win over Texas, along with No. 24 Mississippi State. But it has losses to LSU and Tennessee, the two highest-ranked teams it's played.
The fact that TCU already beat Kansas State and lost in overtime in the rematch will bolster the Frogs' case. Quarterback Max Duggan led a thrilling fourth-quarter comeback on Saturday before TCU was stopped inside the 1-yard line on its first overtime possession.
Ohio State No. 3 and TCU No. 4 is a distinct possibility, but the committee could decide to leave TCU out depending on what it thinks of strength of schedule. The bottom line, however, is the door is open. Alabama is part of the conversation, against all odds, with USC and TCU losing. It looks like a three-team race, so it's all going to come down to the committee.
