Four unbeaten teams remain with three weeks to go, and one team is guaranteed to lose before the College Football Playoff Selection Show on Dec. 4.
It is not No. 4 TCU. The Horned Frogs kept their dream season alive with an impressive 17-10 victory at No. 18 Texas on Saturday, It was a defensive performance where TCU limited the Longhorns to 199 total yards. The Horned Frogs have no margin for error in the Big 12, but they have been perfect so far.
No. 1 Georgia dominated Mississippi State 45-19 and clinched a return to the SEC championship game. The Bulldogs are allowing just 11.6 points per game.
MORE: Updated Heisman race after Week 11
There will be a loser when No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan play on Nov. 26. The Wolverines now rank No. 1 in the FBS in scoring defense (11.2) after a 34-3 win against Nebraska. The Buckeyes (15.6) are not far behind after a 56-14 victory against Indiana.
College football is an offensive game, but these teams are proving that defense might be the difference in a playoff run.
With that in mind, a look at how the Top 25 will shake out in the polls heading into Week 12:
Projecting Top 25 for Week 12
No. 1 Georgia (10-0)
Georgia continued its perfect season with a 45-19 victory against Mississippi State. Georgia clinched a spot in the SEC championship game and can complete another unbeaten regular-season in conference play with a victory against Kentucky in Week 12. Georgia out-rushed Mississippi State 179-47, and Stetson Bennett passed for 289 yards and three TDs. Georgia has won 18 straight SEC regular season games.
No. 2 Ohio State (10-0)
The Buckeyes rolled up 662 total yards in a 56-14 victory against Indiana. C.J. Stroud passed for 297 yards and five TDs, and Miyan Williams (147 yards) and Dallan Hayden (102 yards) both cleared 100 rushing yards. The Buckeyes now have won 29 straight Big Ten home games, a streak they will put on the line against Michigan on Nov. 26.
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No. 3 Michigan (10-0)
Michigan limited Nebraska to 147 total yards in a 34-3 blowout. The defense was dominant, and the Wolverines were content to keep it on the ground with Blake Corum (162 yards, TD). J.J. McCarthy finished 8 of 17 for 129 yards and two TDs. Michigan closes the home schedule against Illinois.
No. 4 TCU (10-0)
The Horned Frogs passed a key road test with a 17-10 victory against No. 18 Texas in an atypical game in which TCU led 3-0 at halftime. Kendre Miller scored on a 75-yard TD, and Max Duggan connected with Quentin Johnson for a 31-yard TD in the second half. TCU will keep its spot in the playoff driver seat as a result.
No. 5 Tennessee (9-1)
The Volunteers ran it up on Missouri 66-24, and the Volunteers now average 47.4 points and 544.1 yards per game through 10 games. Hendon Hooker passed for 355 yards and three TDs, and Tennessee bounced back from the loss to Georgia in Week 10. Did the Vols run up the score? Yes, but that might be a necessity to impress the committee, and they might try to do it against South Carolina and Vanderbilt the next two weeks.
No. 6 LSU (8-2)
LSU clinched its spot in the SEC championship game. Freshman Harold Perkins turned in a four-sack performance, and the Tigers escaped Arkansas with a 13-10 victory that put them one step closer to a SEC championship appearance under first-year coach Brian Kelly. Could LSU be the first two-loss team to backdoor into the CFP?
MORE: Perkins fights off flu to dominate Razorbacks
No. 7 USC (9-1)
The Trojans routed Colorado 55-17 despite losing leading rusher Travis Dye for the season with a leg injury. Dye (884 yards, 9 TDs) will be missed in the rivalry matchup against UCLA. The Pac-12 rivals have split the last 10 meetings.
MORE: Dye out for season after leg injury against Colorado
No. 8 Alabama (8-2)
The Crimson Tide held off Ole Miss 30-24 for a road victory that eliminated the Rebels from the CFP picture. Alabama likely will stay in the top 10 in the playoff rankings even if there is no viable playoff path because of the losses to Tennessee and LSU. Nick Saban likely will have to settle for a New Year’s Day Six berth.
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No. 9 Clemson (9-1)
Clemson bounced back from the Notre Dame loss with a 31-16 victory against Louisville. The Oregon loss also provides some hope here. The Tigers have an outside chance to back-door into the CFP with an ACC championship, but it will not be easy.
No. 10 North Carolina (9-1)
North Carolina moves into the top 10 after a 36-34 victory against Wake Forest, and Drake Maye passed for 448 yards and three TDs to move into the Heisman conversation. Mack Brown has North Carolina in position for a special season, and Georgia Tech is up next.
11. Utah (8-2)
12. Penn State (8-2)
13. Ole Miss (8-2)
14. Oregon (8-2)
15. Washington (8-2)
16. UCLA (8-2)
17. UCF (8-2)
18. Notre Dame (7-3)
19. Florida State (7-3)
20. Kansas State (7-3)
21. Oklahoma State (7-3)
22. Tulane (8-2)
23. Cincinnati (8-2)
24. Illinois (7-3)
25. UTSA (8-2)
