The first set of College Football Playoff rankings will be released in one week, and that will be the first time we see that magical screen.
Who will the four teams in and the first two out? If the chalk holds in Week 9, then it likely will be the six remaining unbeaten Power 5 teams. That list includes Georgia (7-0), Michigan (8-0), Ohio State (7-0), Florida State (7-0), Washington (7-0) and Oklahoma (7-0).
Three Group of 5 schools – Air Force (7-0), Liberty (7-0) and James Madison (7-0) – also are unbeaten, but the Falcons and Flames likely will have to settle for a New Year's Day Six berth. The Dukes are ineligible for postseason play.
It's about those six Power 5 teams. How will they stack up? How should they stack up?
MORE: Bowl projections | Ranking all 133 teams | Week 9 picks
Try out our super-scientific formula, which measures those teams by five metrics. The object is to have the lowest overall score.
Quarterback efficiency: We ranked the teams 1-6 by the efficiency of their starting quarterback.
Average margin of victory: Michigan is the only one of the six teams who have played eight games.
Record of teams played: This is straightforward. Teams were ranked 1-6 by the winning percentage of teams they have beaten already.
Record of teams remaining: We rank from 1-6 with the toughest schedule remaining. While an easier schedule would theoretically mean an easier playoff path, a tougher schedule suggests better chances to build a playoff resume.
Victories against ranked teams: We subtracted a point for each win against a ranked team to improve their ranking.
How did those six teams shake out? A closer look:
Ranking unbeaten Power 5 teams
Four In
1. Michigan (8-0)
Points: 8
Lowdown: The Wolverines average margin of victory (34.7 ppg.), and new Heisman Trophy front-runner J.J. McCarthy has the highest efficiency among the quarterbacks (199.2). The Wolverines have been dominant, but they are the only team among the six that has not beaten a ranked team to this point. Michigan's remaining opponents do have a 20-8 record. The NCAA and Big Ten investigations into alleged sign stealing are a variable that cannot be measured because of the unpredictability.
MORE: What should Michigan's punishment be if found guilty?
2. Ohio State (7-0)
Points: 11
Lowdown: The Buckeyes have a pair of top-10 victories against Notre Dame and Penn State – schools that easily could end up in the New Year's Day Six. Ohio State has won seven games against teams with a combined 29-21 record, the best among the six teams. Ohio State is winning with a little bit of a different formula under Ryan Day with first-year starter Kyle McCord (161.6 efficiency), but the defense is elite and they are still winning by an average of 23.7 points per game.
3. Oklahoma (7-0)
Points: 12
Lowdown: Is this a glitch? Don't tell the Sooners that. Teams they have beaten have a combined record of 26-23, and Oklahoma has the second highest margin of victory at 27 ppg. The Sooners also have the second-easiest schedule among the teams remaining. Dillon Gabriel (172.4) continues to be brilliant, too. Is the victory against Texas enough to put them in the top four?
4. Georgia (7-0)
Points: 13
Lowdown: Fans of the two-time defending national champions will scoff at this ranking given the Bulldogs have won by an average of 26.1 ppg., but Georgia's opponents to this point have a 22-30 record, and that includes four two-win teams. A victory against Kentucky isn't quite enough. The good news? The Bulldogs have the toughest remaining schedule with three games against ranked teams. Carson Beck (163.8) has been good, and he will have to be even better without All-American tight end Brock Bowers.
Two out
5. Washington (7-0)
Points: 16
Lowdown: The Huskies have a Heisman candidate in Michael Penix Jr. (176.8), but they have the lowest margin of victory (21.2). Washington's opponents so far also have a 22-27 record. The Huskies have the fourth-toughest schedule remaining, too. There is still work to do if they want to become the first Pac-12 team to reach the CFP since 2016 and the victory against Oregon helps, but this will likely be their ranking in the first set anyway. A stretch against USC, Utah and Oregon State will tell the tale.
6. Florida State (7-0)
Points: 17
Lowdown: The Seminoles did have a signature victory against LSU in the opener, and beating Duke means they have two victories against ranked opponents. Florida State is winning by an average of 23 points per game, and their opponents so far have a 27-23 record. Their remaining opponents have a 19-17 record. That is the easiest path of the six teams, but the Seminoles are probably the team that can least afford a loss based on conference strength.
SN's formula for rankings
A look at the formula Sporting News used to rank the top six teams:
| RANK | SCHOOL | QB | MARGIN | SKED STRENGTH | SKED LEFT | RANKED | TOTAL |
| 1 | Michigan | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
| 4 | Georgia | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 13 |
| 5 | Washington | 2 | 6 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 6 | Florida State | 6 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
