As college football's bowl season starts to ramp up, this weekend provides bettors and fans with an appealing five-game slate, headlined by Baylor-Air Force and Wake Forest-Missouri. Bowl season can be challenging to handicap because of players opting out and entering the transfer portal, but we're here to give our take on each game, hopefully yielding profit at the end of the weekend.
Below, we'll break the five-game slate and provide an ATS pick for each game.
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Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor vs. Air Force
After a Sugar Bowl victory to cap off a 12-2 finish in 2021, Baylor entered '22 atop the Big 12 preseason media poll for the first time in school history. The Bears couldn't live up to the hype, finishing with a 6-6 record, good for sixth place in the conference. Baylor's defense took a step back this season, which was expected after losing Terrel Bernard and Jalen Pitre to the NFL.
This iteration of Baylor's defense finished the regular season 86th nationally in EPA/play (0.054) and was especially weak against the run (96th in EPA/rush). Not being able to stop the run is a major red flag against an Air Force team that sports the 22nd-highest offensive EPA/rush (0.119). The Falcons were a respected team in the betting market throughout the season, closing as favorites in all 12 games. In nine of its 12 games, they were a double-digit favorite but now find themselves as underdogs against a Big 12 foe. Containing the triple option over 60 minutes will be a challenge for the Bears' defense, and getting over a field goal with a live underdog is the side we want to be on.
Best Bet: Air Force +3.5 (-110)
2022 CFB ODDS: National Championship
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: Houston vs. Louisiana
Houston was another team that entered 2022 with lofty expectations, sitting atop the AAC preseason media poll. Dana Holgerson's bunch did its job on offenses, ranking ninth in EPA/play (0.182), but its defense left a lot to be desired, surrendering 33.5 points per game while ranking 87th in EPA/play.
With QB Clayton Tune and Tank Dell suiting up, we're expecting the Cougars' offense to flash, but the ship has sailed to bet Houston on the spread with the current number sitting at seven. Houston opened as short 2.5-point favorites but has since been bet up to seven-point chalk. Louisiana's defense is respectable enough to keep them within striking distance (32nd in defensive EPA), and with the spread hitting its high point in the market, we'll take the points and back the Ragin' Cajuns.
Best Bet: Louisiana +7 (-110)
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Missouri
Missouri secured a bowl bid in the last week of the regular season, taking down Arkansas to notch their second-straight bowl appearance under the recently extended Eli Drinkwitz. The Tigers' defense is legit, ranking 25th in EPA/play (-0.061) but without Isaiah McGuire and DJ Coleman on the defensive line, the defense may be susceptible to big plays if they can't get Sam Hartman under pressure.
A Demon Deacon offense that ranks 12th in EPA/pass (0.243) should be able to have success, as Wake's slow mesh offense can take advantage of inexperienced defensive linemen. While Brady Cook improved as the season progressed, we're not sure the Tigers' offense can match scores with the Demon Deacons.
Best Bet: Wake Forest -1 (-110)
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl: San Diego State vs. Middle Tennessee State
In another game that's seen a good deal of line movement, San Diego State opened up as short 1.5-point underdogs but are now sitting as 6.5-point favorites. The betting market has correctly identified the better team, but we're not running to the window to lay points on the Aztecs to notch a seven-plus point victory.
San Diego State's defense is legit, ranking 18th in EPA/play, but their offense is toward the bottom of the country, ranking 85th in EPA/play (-0.03). Middle Tennessee's ability to hit explosive plays with QB Chase Cunningham can result in the Blue Raiders staying within the current number.
Best Bet: Middle Tennessee State +6.5 (-110)
Quick Lane Bowl: Bowling Green vs. New Mexico State
New Mexico State travels east to face Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl on Monday. The Aggies significantly outperformed their preseason projection, easily cashing their three-game regular season win total.
Jerry Kill has his team playing its best football at the right time which is good news against a volatile Bowling Green bunch. We'll back the more consistent team here, gladly taking the field goal and the hook to back the better defense.
Best Bet: New Mexico State +3.5 (-110)
