Last season, Lamar Jackson’s narrow defeat to Clemson almost put a dent in his Heisman season, and allowed Clemson to reach the College Football Playoff. This season, the rematch happens even earlier in the year, with a chance for redemption for Jackson and solidification as a top team once again for Tigers.
Both Clemson’s offense and Louisville’s defense have impressive depth and standouts — players who should help dictate the game. Clemson needs to capitalize on opportunities their offense gives them, and Louisville’s secondary likely needs to force at least one turnover.
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But this matchup will come down to whether Clemson can slow down Lamar Jackson. Or, at least enough to sneak out of Louisville with a win.
Clemson against Louisville’s run game
Last season, Lamar Jackson ran 31 times against Clemson, finishing with a 162-yard performance. His elusiveness in the open field is unlike anything we’ve seen in college football since Michael Vick, and there’s little hope that, when needed, Jackson will be able to bust open multiple 20-plus-yard rushes.
But, as you’ll see as a recurring theme throughout this piece, Clemson’s focus is to win opportunities against Jackson wherever they can, force as many difficult third downs as possible, finishing with batted-down passes or strong perimeter coverage.
Clemson’s defensive lineman Christian Wilkins is a future top-10 NFL Draft pick. And for a 300-pound defensive lineman, he’s able to gather himself and finish in pursuit remarkably well, including against highly athletic and creative runners like Lamar Jackson.
While Jackson eventually finished with more than 150 yards rushing last season against the Tigers, it was plays like the one below that gave the Clemson defense opportunities to force him into potential stalled drives in Louisville territory.
The Clemson defensive line penetrates early on a read option. Wilkins is able to work through his blocker and finishes away from his frame on Jackson with defensive end Clelin Ferrell right on his heels. It’s tackles like this in space, especially with Clemson's defensive lineman, that can stunt Jackson from scoring in volume on Saturday.
But Jackson isn't the only Louisville threat Clemson needs to consider. Senior running back Malik Williams — all 6-3, 221 pounds of him — broke off a 50-yard run against North Carolina. Even if you remove that run, he still averaged over 5 yards a carry on the day.
Wrapping up and team defense is generally a weakness across most college football programs, but it may be the single most important area Clemson needs to focus on during practice and in anticipation of the Lamar Jackson rematch.
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Lamar Jackson against Clemson’s defensive line
Jackson was sacked five times in last year's matchup against Clemson, including twice by returning junior Clelin Ferrell. Expecting five sacks against Jackson may be naive for Clemson, but the Tigers also exploited a different weakness of Jackson’s that no other team he faced was really able to focus on.
Jackson, with a somewhat lower release point when standing in the pocket, has a tendency to dip his elbow and throw shoulder height when delivering to mid-range or shorter routes. Clemson was able, especially early in the game, to bat down multiple passes, including the third-down attempt below, preventing yard-after-catch opportunities.
Bobby Petrino’s offense relies on drag routes and shorter, yards-after-catch opportunities for receivers, and then using those openings to force defensive backs upfield before attacking vertically. Clemson did as best they could in reducing those opportunities a year ago, and the defensive line’s ability to knock down passes and disrupt throwing lanes for Jackson could be the secret once again.
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Clemson secondary vs. improved Lamar Jackson
Clemson’s defense has just three seniors who earn significant playing time, and that inexperience will likely show against an improved passer Jackson.
As I wrote about earlier this week, Jackson has become a far more cerebral and mentally consistent quarterback, winning with downfield vision, eye manipulation, and confidence in his entire arsenal of skills.
Cornerback Ryan Carter and free safety Van Smith return from last year’s matchup, and both provide needed experience in the Clemson defense and against Lamar Jackson. But even they’ll struggle to appreciate, especially early in the game, Jackson’s enhancements to his passing game.
It’s Jackson’s ability to navigate in the pocket, eluding the previously discussed Clemson defensive line talent, and still finishing downfield. Giving Jackson even small amounts of space in 2017 can prove costly — most often in the form of a touchdown.
It’s important to consider how much talent Jackson lost in his passing game from a season ago. He threw for 295 yards against Clemson a year ago, and only 77 of those yards return for this game.
While Clemson’s new offense versus Louisville’s improved defense has some intriguing matchups to watch — including Louisville defensive end Drew Bailey against Clemson left tackle Mitch Hyatt — the game will come down to how often Clemson can disrupt Jackson, and how often Jackson can get into the end zone.
Jackson is a rare quarterback, and is once again firmly in the Heisman discussion, picking up where he left off a season ago. A loss against Clemson this season, as short-sighted as it may seem, may be the black cloud that hangs over his head all season that can give ammunition for Heisman voters who don’t want a repeat winner.
And for Clemson, this is easily the most difficult test they’ll face the rest of the regular season. A win here can go a long way in securing, minus any major upsets along the way, their spot in the College Football Playoff.