The Big Ten bookended the four-team College Football Playoff era with national championships from Ohio State in 2014 and Michigan in 2023.
Those two schools have largely defined the conference. Will that change with the additions of Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington from the Pac-12? That is one of the questions as the Big Ten now becomes an 18-team Super Conference.
Ohio State, of course, is among the national championship favorites in 2024. The Buckeyes are loaded, and the pressure is on coach Ryan Day to end a three-game losing streak to rival Michigan. Jim Harbaugh left the Wolverines to become the coach for the Los Angeles Chargers, and Michigan still has not escaped the shadow of the Connor Stalions' sign-stealing scandal. Still, first-year coach Sherrone Moore returns a roster that is good enough to make a Big Ten championship run.
Who could disrupt the Ohio State-Michigan dynamic? Oregon will be a popular pick with third-year coach Dan Lanning. Penn State is 21-5 the last two seasons, and four of those losses are to the Buckeyes and Wolverines. USC, Iowa and Washington were ranked across the preseason polls, and they will look to push into the first tier of the conference. With no divisions and 18 teams, the schedules could factor into late-season tie-breakers for the Big Ten championship game.
Who has the edge in the Big Ten this season? Here is a closer look at the Big Ten, with predictions, defining games, Heisman Trophy contenders and more.
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What's new in the Big Ten in 2024?
The Big Ten will have 18 teams in 2024. The conference added Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington from the Pac-12 conference. The Big Ten will not have divisions, and the top two teams will play in the Big Ten championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Dec. 7.
Here is a look at the 18 teams in the Big Ten in 2024:
Big Ten teams in 2024
| Indiana | Ohio State |
| Illinois | Oregon |
| Iowa | Penn State |
| Maryland | Purdue |
| Michigan | Rutgers |
| Michigan State | UCLA |
| Minnesota | USC |
| Nebraska | Wisconsin |
| Northwestern | Washington |
2024 Big Ten predicted order of finish
- Ohio State
- Oregon
- Michigan
- Penn State
- Iowa
- USC
- Washington
- Nebraska
- Wisconsin
- Rutgers
- UCLA
- Minnesota
- Maryland
- Michigan State
- Illinois
- Northwestern
- Indiana
- Purdue
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Nebraska coach Matt Rhule caused a stir at Big Ten Media Days when he said, "I think four teams from this league should get in every year because this is the best league. This is the NFL of college football, in my opinion."
Rhule isn't all wrong. The Big Ten could have competitive depth on par with the SEC when it comes to the playoff. The setup is two teams more than the AFC or NFC, and that first tier of four teams is going to be in the mix for the College Football Playoff. Ohio State and Oregon are the favorites to play in the Big Ten championship game, and their Oct. 12 showdown at Autzen Stadium is must-see TV. Will they play twice? Three times?
Michigan was picked fourth in the Big Ten Media Poll, but Moore returns enough talent – including a defense that features future first-round picks Will Johnson and Mason Graham – that the Wolverines will be in the mix. The question revolves around a three-man quarterback race with Alex Orji, Jack Tuttle and Davis Warren. Penn State does not play Michigan, and the Nittany Lions have a friendly schedule that features a home game against Ohio State and road trip to USC. The opener against West Virginia is tricky.
Those four teams are the first tier for now, but the second tier is intriguing. Will Iowa play enough offense with new offensive coordinator Tim Lester and a healthy Cade McNamara? Will USC play enough defense under Lincoln Riley, who hired new coordinator D'Anton Lynn from UCLA?
Does Washington have enough players back under new coach Jedd Fisch after reaching the CFP championship game in 2023? Rhule and Wisconsin's Luke Fickell each enter their second season and will have to earn their spot among this group.
As for the bottom half, Rutgers is a popular sleeper based on its schedule, but the Scarlet Knights have averaged close to five wins per season since Greg Schiano returned. UCLA will have to find its way with first-year coach DeShaun Foster, but the Bruins did average close to eight wins the last three seasons. That is almost identical to Minnesota under P.J. Fleck. Those three teams are tough to sort out.
Maryland is under-ranked, but the Terps have to answer a quarterback question with Taulia Tagovailoa gone. Michigan State hit reset after last season, but the combination of new coach Jonathan Smith and transfer quarterback Aidan Chiles could surprise. Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana and Purdue will have to fight for bowl eligibility. David Braun surprised in his first season with the Wildcats. Will Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti be that coach in 2024?
Top storyline: Who has more pressure than Ryan Day, Ohio State?
Nobody. Day is 56-8 as the head coach of Ohio State, which includes a three-game stint in 2018 when Urban Meyer was under suspension. He's 39-3 in Big Ten play, but those three losses are the source of the pressure. A three-game losing streak to Michigan has at minimum intensified the scrutiny of Day's handling of a national championship-caliber machine in Columbus.
MORE: What 'Untold: Sign Stealer' doesn't tell you about Michigan scandal
Will the 12-team College Football Playoff change the math? Day is 10-7 against top-10 teams with Ohio State and 46-1 against everybody else. To the Buckeyes' credit, a new regime made a statement in the offseason. Athletic director Ross Bjork replaced Gene Smith. The Buckeyes kept 11 players who could have entered the 2024 NFL Draft, and the transfer portal additions were huge. New offensive coordinator Chip Kelly – who left a head-coaching job at UCLA to call plays – might be the best piece of the puzzle.
Here is the other piece of the pressure. Ohio State won its last national championship in 2014 under Meyer. Since 2015, only four FBS programs have 100 or more wins, a list consisting of Alabama (115-12, .906), Ohio State (101-14, .878), Clemson (109-17, .865) and Georgia (104-19, .846). The Crimson Tide, Tigers and Bulldogs have combined for seven of the last nine national titles. The other? LSU in 2019, led by former Ohio State quarterback Joe Burrow, and Michigan – the rival school with three straight Big Ten championships. It's go-time for the Buckeyes in an all-in year.
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Big Ten Heisman Trophy contenders
Here are the top five Heisman Trophy candidates in the Big Ten heading into the 2024 season:
Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oregon
Gabriel is the betting favorite heading into the season and should produce with Oregon at a clip comparable to Bo Nix, who finished third in the Heisman voting in 2023. Gabriel has 125 TDs and 26 interceptions through five seasons with Oklahoma and UCF, but he should be even better throwing to Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart.
Will Howard, QB, Ohio State
Sure, Howard has a strong supporting cast, but let's not short-change the Kansas State transfer quarterback. He has 39 TD passes and 14 interceptions the last three seasons, and he also averaged 4.3 yards per carry with nine rushing TDs last season. Four Ohio State quarterbacks – J.T. Barrett, Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields and C.J. Stroud – have finished in the top five in the Heisman voting since 2014. Howard might be the safest Big Ten bet.
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
Allar threw for 25 TDs and two interceptions in his first year as a starter, a stat that would be getting more attention if not for the struggles against Ohio State, Michigan and Ole Miss. Allar had a 45.1% completion percentage in those losses. There is room to improve, but the upside and revamped schedule could mean a fully appreciated breakout season for Allar.
Donovan Edwards, RB, Michigan
Edwards – one of the cover athletes for EA Sports College Football 25 – had a down year in 2023, but he has a penchant for scoring memorable TDs and he averages 5.7 yards per carry for his career. Blake Corum finished in the top 10 of the Heisman Trophy voting the last two seasons.
Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Can a defensive player win the Heisman Trophy? Downs showed his upside as a dominant all-round defensive player at Alabama, and Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles will put him in the right spot. Downs will have to be a contributor in the return game and perhaps a handful of snaps on offense – which Day hinted could happen. It's still a long shot given the only defensive player to win the Heisman is Michigan's Charles Woodson in 1997. Hey, Downs wears the same jersey number.
Who is the top Big Ten impact transfer?
Quinshon Judkins, RB, Ohio State
For all the new additions at Ohio State, Judkins is the one getting the least hype. He might turn out to be the key piece. Judkins led the SEC in rushing in 2022 and finished second last season. He had 39 runs of 10 yards or more last season, which ranks fifth among returning Power 4 running backs. He is effective in zone or gap running, and the split with TreVeyon Henderson might lead to more efficiency in the backfield.
Aidan Chiles, QB, Michigan State
Half of the Big Ten teams might be starting a first-year transfer quarterback, and Chiles – who followed Smith from Oregon State to East Lansing – has tons of upside. Chiles had 35 pass attempts and 17 rushes at Oregon State last season, and he accounted for seven total TDs. Michigan State ranked 131st in scoring offense at 15.9 ppg. last season.
Big Ten freshman to watch
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
Smith – a 6-3, 215-pound receiver – was the top recruit in the country. He's drawing comparisons ranging from Julio Jones to Calvin Johnson and competing for immediate playing time in the top receiver room in the country. Ohio State's last four first-round receivers – Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. – averaged 16 catches, 204.5 yards and three TDs in their respective first years. Smith seems destined to at least double or maybe triple that, right?
Dylan Raiola, QB, Nebraska
Raiola is the first five-star commit at Nebraska since 2005 – and he is the legacy player Rhule can build the program renovation around for the next three seasons. There will be ups-and-downs in Year 1 for a quarterback at a program that hasn't had a winning season since 2016, but it's hard not to feel the excitement emanating around Lincoln.
Big Ten top five games of 2024
A look at the five best games on the Big Ten schedule for 2024:
Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 30)
The Wolverines and Buckeyes have entered this game with matching 11-0 records each of the last two seasons. It's the best game of the college football regular season – at least for another year with the urgency for Ohio State to avoid a four-game losing streak. Day and Moore are the coaches who will shepherd this rivalry in the new Big Ten era. Will this be a best-of-two scenario where the teams meet again in Indianapolis?
BUY NOW: Cheapest Ohio State tickets available on StubHub for every game
Ohio State at Oregon (Oct. 12)
Oct. 12 is an amazing day in the Big Ten. Washington plays at Iowa, and Penn State plays at USC. The Buckeyes' matchup against the Ducks, however, will set the tone for the entire Big Ten race. As of now, it's a top-five showdown. Oregon won at Ohio State 35-28 in 2021. Ryan Day and Chip Kelly both used to coach at Oregon, too. Lanning is 2-3 against top-10 teams the last two seasons. This is a prove-it game for both sides.
BUY NOW: Cheapest Oregon tickets available on StubHub for every game
USC at Michigan (Sept. 21)
Michigan plays Oregon in the Big House on Nov. 2, but the Big Ten opener against USC will generate interest given these schools have faced each other in the Rose Bowl eight times. The Trojans and Wolverines haven't met in the regular season since 1958 – and the classic feel of the matchup is the right way to start the new Big Ten.
BUY NOW: Cheapest Michigan tickets available on StubHub for every game
Ohio State at Penn State (Nov. 2)
The Nittany Lions don't have Michigan – and the pressure is on James Franklin to take another top-10 team into the CFP – a task made easier with the expansion to 12 teams. Still, Ohio State is a roadblock. Penn State is 1-9 against the Buckeyes under Franklin, with the lone victory coming in 2016.
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Nebraska at Iowa (Oct. 29)
Both teams have to play at Ohio State this season – but the Hawkeyes and Huskers each have friendly Big Ten schedules with the new setup. Iowa has won eight of the last nine against Nebraska, and the last six meetings have been one-score games. This will be a fun Black Friday game with higher stakes than usual.
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Big Ten stat that matters
Woody Hayes was famous for his "three yards and a cloud of dust" philosophy. Now, it takes five yards per carry to be an elite Big Ten team, and that is what the Buckeyes have gradually deviated from in the last five years.
The Big Ten champion has averaged at least five yards per carry four of the last five years. Michigan averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year, but that was partially because of a league-high 563 rushing attempts over 15 games. That yards per carry is what to watch for with Kelly, who has Howard, Henderson and Judkins at his disposal. It's also worth watching at Michigan, which lost J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum to the NFL. Will the Wolverines be able to maintain the ability to bludgeon opponents with the running game?
This, as much as anything, is why the tenor of The Game has changed in the last five years.
| YEAR | OSU YPC | RANK | MICH YPC | RANK |
| 2019 | 5.6 | 1st | 4 | 8th |
| 2020 | 5 | 1st | 4 | 3rd |
| 2021 | 5.5 | 1st | 5.2 | 2nd |
| 2022 | 5.4 | 2nd | 5.6 | 1st |
| 2023 | 4.2 | 8th | 4.5 | 3rd |
For what it's worth, Oregon led the Pac-12 with 5.9 yards per carry in 2023 and has averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry each of the last three seasons under Lanning.
Big Ten champion: Ohio State
Going out on a limb, huh? There still will be road tests in the regular season against Oregon and Penn State before the regular-season finale against the Wolverines, but the Buckeyes have seven players on SN's Preseason All-American team. Howard should settle in as the starting quarterback, and the expectations around Smith are already at the Marvin Harrison Jr. level. The Buckeyes have been virtually upset-proof under Day in those games outside the top 10, and there is simply too much talent for the Buckeyes to mess this up. The real question is whether they deliver that national championship in the 12-team format – much like they did in the first year of the four-team playoff.
