Future of Big 12 realignment: Breaking down Brett Yormark's expansion options

Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark does not sound like somebody who is distraught that Texas and Oklahoma are leaving for the SEC in 2024. 

"They're a big part of the history of this conference," Yormark said at Big 12 Media Days on Wednesday. "But like I said last year, this conference is bigger than any two schools."

The Longhorns and Sooners rank fifth and sixth, respectively, in all-time wins. They were unquestionably the two biggest brands in the conference but remarkably, the Big 12 is still trending up.

Yormark has proven he knows how to market the conference. 

He replenished the conference with four reliable brands in BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. It's entirely possible that this conference could be at 16 schools or more in the future. 

MORE: Texas needs to reverse this trend if it wants to win Big 12

When Yormark says "We're in a great place," he's not fronting. 

"We have a plan for expansion and I'm not really going to address it today. You can ask me but I'm not really going to address it. We do have a plan. Hopefully we can execute it sooner than later."

What might that plan look like? Here is a glimpse into how the Big 12 might handle its next move. 

See how new football schools fare 

All of the new additions have been in the College Football Playoff hunt – and the Bearcats broke through in 2021. These are schools that have earned the level up to a Power 5 conference when you look at their winning percentages and where that stands in the FBS since 2014. 

Cincinnati (.675, 18th), UCF (.649, 25th), Houston (.643, 26th) and BYU (.629, 29th) all rank in the top 30. That's well ahead of Texas (.545, 59th) in the same stretch. It's OK to sit back and see how it plays out when the Longhorns and Sooners leave and the 12-team CFP begins in 2024. The Big 12 will get an automatic bid every year given its position in the college hierarchy, but the wealth will be spread around. 

"I'm looking at the last six teams that played for championships here in the last three years," BYU coach Kalani Sitake said Wednesday. "There's a lot of parity there. I'm hoping that our team can add to that." 

Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, TCU and Kansas State have all advanced to the Big 12 championship game in that stretch. That everybody-has-a-chance philosophy could work, and the Big 12 could be that alternative source of programming that works by not going head to head with the SEC and Big Ten. 

The conference did complete a television agreement with ESPN and FOX on June 30; a deal that runs through the 2030-31 season. That might mean more Thursday and Friday games, but that ensures that some of those key games don't get lost in the shuffle. 

Monitor the Pac-12

When Texas and Oklahoma leave, the Big 12 will actually have 12 schools. Will that last? 

"If and when the opportunity presents itself to stay at 14, we'll pursue it," Yormark said. "But I did say that, and I backpedaled a little bit because I realize it's not about chasing a number. It's all about creating value for membership. We'll see where that takes us." 

Some of that might hinge on the Pac-12 and what that conference's new television contract – which has not been released – looks like. Colorado's future - especially with new coach Deion Sanders – is an interesting potential move for the Big 12. The Buffaloes left the Big 12 for the Pac-12 in 2011. Colorado does have Yormark's attention. 

"Listen, they know brand," Yormark said via The Athletic. "I'm a brand guy. I think they've done an incredible job. If you look at how they're elevating and amplifying their brand and engaging with their fans, they've done a wonderful job, so I wish them well."

A wait-and-see approach is OK. Colorado and Arizona State would be easy additions to get the Big 12 back to 14 schools, but how much value would they add to the television contract? Yormark can be picky here, and his response to a question about adding a travel partner for BYU hints that will be the case. 

"They bring a different time zone, obviously, which is great for us. We're the only conference in America that's in three time zones," Yormark said. "But right now, there's nothing on the board. We'll explore all options, but until that point, we love the current makeup and we're excited about it."

Go all in on basketball

While football might be the focus now, the Big 12 does not have to be all about football in the future. The conference has flexed in men’s basketball, especially over the last five years. 

In that stretch, Texas Tech reached the national championship game in 2019. Baylor and Kansas won national championships in 2021 and 2022. Kansas State and Texas reached the Elite Eight last season. 

Would Yormark entertain expanding the Big 12 basketball brand? Look at the top 15 schools in terms of winning percentage the last five years: 

With Houston, the Big 12 now is the only conference with three schools on that list. What is stopping them from looking at Gonzaga as a basketball-only member? You could add Arizona from the Pac-12 or rescue San Diego State from the Mountain West? UConn – which won the national championship last season - also has been speculated about as a potential Big 12 target. 

All of those schools would give the nation's most powerful conference even more Big 12 superteams. Not all could be good at the same time, but several most definitely will be.

Keep the brand strong

Yormark has a background in basketball branding, but he also worked for Roc Nation. He clearly has a focus that is not limited to the traditional college football fan-base. 

"What's unfolding in front of your eyes with the brand refresh, how we're enhancing and modernizing our championships, how we're creating creative spots to connect with youth culture and that Gen-Z demographic,"  Yorkmark said. "Those are the ways that we are attracting Gen-Z, and I feel very comfortable with our approach. It's not about NIL."

Yorkmark said Gen-Z four times in one response to a question Wednesday. That is a target audience for the future. Yet Yormark is staying in the traditional epicenter of the conference. The Big 12 championship game will stay at AT&T Stadium through 2030. That's one of the biggest stages possible in terms of venue. 

Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy remains impressed with the new commissioner. 

"I think that he understands marketing," Gundy said. "He took our conference and tied it in with ESPN and FOX all the way through 2031. That's the most important thing in my opinion that he could have accomplished, to solidify our conference financially, because without that, we don't have anything."

This is a different kind of branding for what used to be a traditional conference – one with deep ties to the Big 8 and the Southwest Conference. Now, the Big 12 is more of a national brand than a regional brand – and that could keep the conference healthy as the NIL-era of college athletics evolves. 

"Do I like that conferences have broken up in the past?" Gundy asked rhetorically. "No, I don't. But I also know that we have to control what we can control ... Wherever we all end up and whatever schedule they give us to play, we all play it and do the best we can."