1. Southern charm
We’ve come to the moment we can no longer deny.
Two things can happen this weekend in the state of Mississippi football: someone from the Magnolia state will be the clear No. 1 team in the nation, or someone will be the clear Nos. 1 and 2 in the nation.
Or it all goes to hell in the SEC West.
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If Mississippi State beats Auburn on Saturday afternoon in Starkville, the Bulldogs will have — by far — the best resume in college football. If, later that night, Ole Miss wins at Texas A&M, the Rebels will own the best win of the season (Alabama) and a big road win and be firmly behind Mississippi State at No. 2.
Then again, if both lose, six of the seven teams in the brutal SEC West will have already lost a game — and the road ahead just gets tougher for the then lone unbeaten Auburn.
That, and we get that much closer to the best conference in the game eating itself alive.
“We’ve got some really good teams (in the SEC West),” said Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze. “But the reality is, some of us are going to have several losses.”
Or one or two — and maybe even the Mississippi schools — will separate from the pack and not lose a game. If you thought last weekend was unthinkable for the state of Mississippi, allow yourself to think about this:
What if the Bulldogs and Rebels win out and the SEC West is decided by who wins the Egg Bowl on the last weekend of the regular season? I don’t want to crush the egos of those in the state of Alabama, but the college football world would then see just how bitter the Ole Miss-Mississippi State rivalry really is.
Maybe, just maybe, that’s not such a bad thing. Because if we’re going all-in with this new College Football Playoff, why not go all in with the new face of the SEC? LSU is the worst team in the West, while Alabama has a strange trip this weekend (more on that below) that could lead to another SEC loss and a whole lot of questions about the direction of the program.
It makes absolutely no sense, but by the end of November, all things SEC could revolve around Egg Bowl — instead of the Iron Bowl.
2. A strange view
So the best team in the SEC since 2008 will roll into cold and rainy Fayetteville, Ark., this weekend and play the SEC team that hasn’t won a league game since October of 2012.
Yet who among us feels good about SEC king Alabama beating Arkansas?
An Arkansas team that looks significantly better than last year’s winless SEC season. An Arkansas team that, but for a useless tripping penalty behind a play, would have blown out Texas A&M two weeks ago.
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An Arkansas team that has spent two weeks preparing for a suddenly shaky Alabama team that, granted, lost at Ole Miss on the last play of the game — but shouldn’t have been that close to stealing a win.
What do we really know about Alabama, you ask? Here it is, in a nutshell:
— QB Blake Sims throws a nice deep ball.
— The Tide defensive line and secondary aren’t nearly the force they have been in years past.
Other than that, it’s a weekly crapshoot. Alabama is dinged up on the offensive line (which hasn’t played particularly well, anyway), and the loss of linebacker Denzel Devall (ankle) will have serious repercussions against the best run game in the SEC.
It’s going to be rainy and chilly in Fayetteville on Saturday night; a wet day and weird road trip for a team that’s teetering on turning the corner — or falling off the side. Winning on the road through this adversity can galvanize the Tide for the brutal grind of the SEC West race.
Losing to a team whose last SEC victory was against SEC tomato can Kentucky changes everything.
3. Big question in Big 12
Can Bryce Petty and the prolific Baylor offense get past TCU on Saturday? (Getty Images)
Forget about this ridiculous beef between Gary Patterson and Art Briles. It means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme.
The bigger issue at hand in Saturday’s Big 12 showdown: Baylor QB Bryce Petty’s play last week against Texas — and if it’s an indicator of future performance.
It’s hard to find a flaw with a quarterback who has thrown all of four interceptions in 18 career games (540 career attempts), but Petty’s play at Texas reinforced what we learned late last year: Baylor’s offense is more manageable for opponents when they can cover in man situations.
NUMBERS THAT MATTER: No. 9 TCU at No. 5 Baylor | Week 7 picks
UCF proved it in the Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma State proved it last year in Stillwater. And Texas showed last week that when you can cover in man and not be forced to drop more in the back seven and play zone — and therefore give Petty time to find holes instead of finding receivers winning individual battles — the Baylor offense isn’t as prolific.
There’s no denying that Petty completing 31 percent of his passes last week (7-of-22) is a product of the Texas defense and its ability to cover. Understand this: Petty struggled last year against TCU, throwing one of his three interceptions last year and completing only 50 percent of his passes.
Baylor won 41-38, but scored only three offensive touchdowns. In last week’s upset of Oklahoma, TCU forced Sooners QB Trevor Knight into an awful game (14-of-35, 2 INT), and his lack of efficiency led to the biggest upset of the season.
A second straight upset might be closer than you think.
4. Redemption out west
Ladies and gentlemen, we give you the Pac-12 — the conference that was thisclose to overtaking the SEC as the king of all things college football:
The lone unbeaten (Arizona) wasn’t even expected to compete for its division championship, much less hold the fate of the league on the shoulders of a freshman quarterback.
The two-time defending champion (Stanford) already has two losses, and one of the two preseason favorites (Oregon, UCLA) will have two losses by the early Saturday night when they play in Pasadena.
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That’s what makes the Oregon-UCLA game so important. Beyond staying in the race for their respective division championships, Oregon and UCLA are playing for the Pac-12’s reputation.
We’re a long way from figuring out who plays in the College Football Playoff, but the conference that many believed could get two teams into the new postseason system is now trending toward not getting any — unless Arizona’s unthinkable ride continues.
A statement game from bruised and battered Oregon or underachieving UCLA would be the first big step toward restoring some of the Pac-12’s preseason reputation.
5. Defining moment
This is, without question, the crossroads of the Michigan season.
Quarterback play has been horrendous. The team’s best player, TB Derrick Green, will miss the rest of the season with a broken clavicle.
Coaches are fighting on the sidelines, the athletic director is bickering with fans (Dear Dave Brandon: anything you email has the potential to go viral).
MORE MICHIGAN: Worst week ever | Plan A: John Harbaugh | Time to throw in the towel?
And here comes Penn State into Ann Arbor, a team coming off an embarrassing loss to Northwestern and a team that has had two weeks to prepare for the mess that is Michigan football.
Lose this game, and we can clearly see where the end arrives for coach Brady Hoke. A loss to Penn State drops Michigan to 2-5 with a game at bitter rival Michigan State two weeks away. An ugly loss in East Lansing might just be the last game for Hoke.