Texas quarterback Arch Manning, possibly the most famous name in college football outside of Deion Sanders, will make his first-career NCAA start this weekend in place of injured teammate Quinn Ewers.
The two Longhorns now sit neck-and-neck on the Heisman Trophy futures boards of many sportsbooks, with Manning even jumping Ewers on a few books. On BetMGM and Caesars, specifically, Manning has jumped to +1600 and +1200 odds, respectively, with Ewers off the board completely.
MORE: Arch's first career start | Picks, predictions for NCAA Week 4
Is the Manning name and Arch's popularity amongst fans and bettors contributing to his surge in the odds boards? Or, is it all simply based on his raw talent, combined with the No. 1-ranked Longhorns playing the best football in the nation?
Let's dive into the full Heisman Trophy odds on BetMGM before and after the Ewers injury, then discuss which way bettors should approach the market moving forward.
Heisman Trophy odds 2024
Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Handle = percentage of all money wagered.
| Player | Current odds | Week 2 odds | Betting handle (9/16) |
| Cam Ward | +450 | +900 | 10.5% |
| Jaxson Dart | +700 | +900 | 9.3% |
| Jalen Milroe | +700 | +1100 | 6.8% |
| Nico Iamaleava | +800 | +1100 | 11.6% |
| Dillon Gabriel | +900 | +900 | 10.3% |
| Carson Beck | +1100 | +900 | 4.6% |
| Quinn Ewers | Off the board | +1200 | 8.4% |
| Arch Manning | +1600 | +10000 | 0.8% |
| Will Howard | +2000 | +1800 | 2.2% |
| Miller Moss | +2000 | +2200 | 3.0% |
| Ashton Jeanty | +2000 | +4000 | 2.8% |
| Travis Hunter | +3000 | +3500 | 8.4% |
| Riley Leonard | +4000 | +3000 | 0.7% |
| Avery Johnson | +4000 | +3000 | 2.0% |
| Drew Allar | +4000 | +3000 | 0.5% |
| Garrett Nussmeier | +5000 | +3000 | 2.1% |
| Jackson Arnold | +5000 | +4000 | 0.4% |
| Brady Cook | +5000 | +4000 | 0.6% |
First of all, it's fascinating that Ewers has been taken off the board completely. With a good deal of Ewers liability already, sportsbooks are likely avoiding having to take on any more action on him — especially if they have to temporarily price him any differently due to the oblique injury and Manning's ascension to starter.
The six starters atop the Heisman board remain the favorites for a reason — they have been awesome, none more than Miami's Cam Ward at just 45-to-1. However, Manning seems like a very intriguing bet at +1600 — and here's why now is the time if you're ever going to bet on him this season.
Why Arch Manning is a good bet to win the Heisman
Like it or not, storylines and big names have been known to affect voting processes. There are few names in sports bigger than Manning, and Arch being the top prospect in the recruiting Class of 2023 and now the starting QB of the No. 1-ranked team in America sure seems like a storyline.
Manning, who stands 6-4 and 225 pounds, enjoyed a breakout game in the Longhorns' 56-7 beatdown of UTSA. In relief following Ewers' oblique injury, Manning connected on 9-of-12 passes for 223 yards and four touchdowns. He also ran for 53 yards and a TD, with zero turnovers (Ewers has 8 TDs but 2 INTs this season).
It's not just what he did, but how he did it. Manning systematically broke down the Roadrunners, dazzling with a 75-yard touchdown strike to Ryan Wingo and a 67-yard TD run. The 19-year-old reportedly reached 20.7 miles per hour on the run, an unreal speed for a QB with a large build.
MORE: Manning run times out faster than any 2024 run by Tyreek Hill
That marked the first time in UT history that a player recorded a run and a throw of 65-plus yards in the same game. Heck, only Colt McCoy and Vince Young have even logged a 65-yard pass and 65-yard throw in the same season for the Longhorns. Side note: McCoy won two Heismans, while Young turned down one.
If Manning continues to scorch the Earth with his opportunity while Ewers remains sidelined, we could be in for a Tom Brady/Drew Bledsoe situation. There's no way Steve Sarkisian can put Manning back on the bench if he plays with this much efficient and seemingly-effortless dominance. At worst, he would likely utilize them both. But we all know who would get the benefit of the doubt in awards voting.
Of course, Manning would need to beat some formidable opponents to have a realistic shot at the award. Ewers already bested the reigning-champion Michigan Wolverines 31-12, throwing for 246 yards and three TDs. That's a signature win, of which Heisman winners typically have many.
A bet on Manning is a bet on genetics, in many ways, or maybe we should call it a bet on "nature and nurture." We all know Arch's pedigree — grandson to former pro Archie, nephew of Super Bowl greats Peyton and Eli. We also know that Sarkisian and this Texas football program develop QBs very well.
During his tenure at USC, Sarkisian coached Heisman-winning QBs Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart, along with NFL signal-callers Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel, and John David Booty. He knows how to get the best of his QBs, and the sky is the limit when he has a player of Manning's caliber — not to mention the best offensive line in the nation and a ton of playmaking pass-catchers.
Long story short, Manning seems worth at least a modest investment at +1600. Once the bets start flowing in on him, his odds will start to shorten. If he leads Texas to another dominant win this week over Louisiana-Monroe, he will likely shorten to +1000 (or shorter).
To understand how much a name can affect betting on an awards race, refer to Caitlin Clark's WNBA MVP odds betting this year — or the national championship betting handle on the Deion Sanders-led Colorado Buffaloes last year. The odds for Manning won't be lengthening any time soon — but watching him with vested interest should become more and more fun as the season progresses.
If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation. Learn more >
