TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Let’s look at this thing rationally and realistically, leaving nothing to the imagination.
Alabama beat the No. 1 team in the nation, and if that makes everything warm and cozy on a bitterly cold night in the Deep South, grab that single, tangible moment from Saturday afternoon and hold on tight.
Because the rest of No. 5 Alabama’s 25-20 victory over top-ranked Mississippi State is full of questions and second-guesses and lingering doubt — all underscoring the absolute uncertainty of this season.
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In the words of longtime Alabama basketball coach Wimp Sanderson, if these are two of the top five teams in that nation, we’ve got a sick nation.
“Every week is a playoff now,” says Alabama coach Nick Saban.
And every week is a new adventure.
“At this point, it doesn’t matter how it looks, it only matters that you win,” Alabama linebacker Trey DePriest said.
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Because what might look good one week in Eugene, looks awful a few weeks later in the same exact place. Or what looks like a statement one weekend in Tallahassee, becomes all-out panic two weeks later in Louisville.
This isn’t necessarily new to college football, it just usually evens out by November to produce a clear idea of the best team (or teams) in the game. There are three weeks left in the regular season, and if you thought this headliner of the two top teams in the nation’s top conference was going to weed through the process, gaze a little deeper into the CFP abyss.
Alabama doesn’t have a quarterback who can consistently make critical throws. Mississippi State doesn’t have a quarterback who can consistently not throw to the other team.
Both look very good on defense until you realize that, wait a second, neither has a quarterback that can press the other defense. Then all you’re left with is my ugly is greater than your ugly.
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If you think that’s hyperbole, consider this: after the game, Saban declared Alabama’s game-sealing drive in the fourth quarter “one of the greatest drives in school history.” Think about that, Bear breath.
All those championship teams (all 15 you count for some ungodly reason), all those championship quarterbacks and all those meaningful moments. They all now have company.
A drive that included Sims connecting on 2-of-5 passes for only 10 yards, but included his two critical third-and-long conversion scrambles of 10 and 11 yards to keep the drive alive. A drive that included tailback T.J. Yeldon, gutting out an ankle injury from last week, powering through three big runs (10, 11, 7), the last capping the 15-play, 76-yard drive that wasn’t so much a thing of beauty as it was a thing.
“We saw that look in coach Saban’s eyes,” said Alabama fullback Jalston Fowler. “That look of you better go do something.”
So they did, and along the way in the second half were fortunate to be around the ball when Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott made one of the poorest decisions he has made all season — throwing in the end zone to a covered receiver (that Tide cornerback Cyrus Jones merely had to hold his hands in the air to intercept) — and forced another throw across the middle that was tipped at the line of scrimmage and intercepted at the Alabama 17.
Two potential scoring drives, two disastrous finishes that could have — and should have — been averted.
“We squandered a lot of points,” Prescott said. “We had them. We turned over the ball. It was just stupid turnovers.”
If only it were that simple.
Do either of these teams, with so many visible problems at the most important position on the field, look like a team that can navigate a four-team playoff? Are either of these teams worthy of that No. 1 spot where they’d be shipped to the geographically-friendly Sugar Bowl?
“I think we’re the best team in the nation, yeah,” Sims said.
Here’s the scary part: the CFP committee most likely will, too. This team that scored 10 offensive points against Ole Miss and 14 against Arkansas; that sat here in front of a frenzied crowd and simply watch Mississippi State self-destruct, has a very strong chance of being your new No. 1.
If that’s not enough, how about Mississippi State still in the top four? Unless, that is, you’re using CFP logic — which will now penalize Mississippi State for its weak non-conference schedule (hello, Baylor). Or maybe it won’t.
Maybe Mississippi State will still be ahead of Alabama. After all, the Bulldogs have better conference wins and a better loss. Why should head-to-head matter, right CFP committee?
Why should it matter that Mississippi State had every opportunity to beat Alabama, and time after time, imploded when it mattered most. What’s the difference between an interception in the end zone, an interception at the Alabama 17, running wide in the shadow of their own goal line for a safety, and sailing high a sure touchdown and settling for a field goal — and blowing a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter? It’s all self-inflicted pain.
When asked if his team were still playoff-worthy, Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen said, "I know we are."
The reality is, no one knows anything. Because if the CFP committee is punishing Baylor for its non-conference schedule, you better believe Mississippi State’s non-con (25 percent worse because of four bad games to three) will get dinged, too.
If they're going to leap Alabama all the way to No. 1 because we’re all prisoners of the moment and what looks good now is always better than what looked good then, remember that now will be then as soon as next week. Or the week after that.
It’s a sick nation, all right — and 12 men and women holed up in a hotel in Dallas are going to figure it all out and make it right. Don’t kid yourself, they’re susceptible to turnovers, too.
“Who knows what the committee thinks?” Sims said.
That might be the only absolute certainty of the season.