No. 2 Michigan takes on No. 3 TCU in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz., on Saturday.
Game time is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET, and it will be televised on ESPN. The winner advances to the College Football Playoff championship game, which will be Jan. 9 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.
Michigan (13-0) is making its second straight CFP appearance under Jim Harbaugh. The Wolverines are an excellent combination of offense (40.1 ppg.) and defense (13.4) – the only team in the CFP that ranked in the top 10 in both categories. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy emerged late in the season, and Donovan Edwards has emerged as a breakout star since Blake Corum suffered a season-ending knee injury.
TCU (12-1) is making its first CFP appearance under first-year coach Sonny Dykes. Heisman Trophy runner-up Max Duggan leads a Horned Frogs' offense that averaged 40.3 points per game, and TCU won five games against ranked teams in the regular season before falling short in the Big 12 championship game.
MORE: Sonny Dykes named SN Coach of the Year
It's the first Big Ten-Big 12 matchup in the CFP, and which team asserts their style of play will be a difference-maker in the desert. With that in mind, here is everything you need to know to bet on the Wolverines and Horned Frogs:
Michigan vs. TCU odds
- Spread: Michigan -7.5
- Over/under: 58.5
- Moneyline: Michigan -300, TCU +255
The Wolverines opened as a 8.5-point favorite on some sportsbooks, and the movement suggests value in the Horned Frogs. Four of TCU's last five games hit the under. Michigan hit the over in the back-to-back victories against Ohio State and Purdue to end the regular season.
Three trends to know
— TCU was 2-0 S/U as an underdog this season with victories against Oklahoma and Texas. The Horned Frogs also were 5-1 S/U in games decided by eight points or less, with the lone loss coming against Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game.
— Harbaugh has flipped the script on his tenure the last two seasons, especially against ranked teams. The Wolverines are 5-2 S/U and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against ranked opponents. That included the blowout victories against Penn State and Ohio State – games the Wolverines won by an average of 23 points per game.
— If this becomes a shootout, then the Wolverines will not be all that uncomfortable. Michigan is 6-1 ATS this season when they score 35 points or more. Their victories against Penn State, Ohio State and Purdue all hit the over.
MORE: Betting trends for Georgia-Ohio State CFP semifinal
Three things to watch
— McCarthy and Edwards. The sophomore combination has stepped up in the absence of Corum, especially those last two games. McCarthy closed the season with back-to-back three-TD games, but he still had a 56.1% completion percentage. TCU has three defensive backs with at least three interceptions in Thorpe Award winner Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, Bud Clark and Josh Newton. How cautious will Harbaugh be in the passing game? Edwards might be the answer. The 202-pound running back averaged 9.1 yards per carry in the victories against Penn State, Ohio State and Purdue. He's rushed for 100 yards in every game he had at least 15 carries. Expect another 20 carries for Edwards.
MORE: Sporting News All-America team | Handing out grades to first-year coaches
— Dual-threat Duggan. In 10 games against Big Ten quarterbacks, Michigan allowed 44 rushing attempts for -4 yards. Outside of a 62-yard run by Penn State's Sean Clifford, the quarterback has not been a factor against the Wolverines' edge defense, which features disciplined linebackers in Junior Colson and Michael Barrett. How much of a playmaker outside the pocket can Duggan be? Will that lead to the deep shot with Quentin Johnson – who averaged 17.0 yards per catch?
— Second-half adjustments. Michigan's coaching staff has been incredible after halftime this season. The Wolverines have a +206 point differential after halftime, and the Horned Frogs have a +98 point differential after halftime. TCU running back Kendre Miller will need to be a factor in the running game in the second half for the Horned Frogs to close this gap.
Stat that matters
TCU should be able to move the ball with Duggan against the Michigan defense. Ohio State and Purdue averaged 474 total yards in the last two games. What was the difference? The Buckeyes and Boilermakers combined for three TDs and six field goals in those games. Duggan needs to lead TD drives when TCU gets in the red zone in order to give the Horned Frogs a chance in the fourth quarter. Michigan's opponents scored 11 TDs in 29 red-zone attempts this season.
Michigan vs. TCU prediction
The Wolverines are 0-3 all time in bowl games against Big 12 teams, but that last meeting was in 2013. You can't read too much into those games, but the style-of-play factor is huge. TCU can make Michigan uncomfortable if Duggan is an efficient playmaker outside the pocket, especially if the Wolverines have turnovers. Look for TCU to take an early lead, but a long TD run by Edwards will tie the score before halftime. From there, Michigan will use that methodical style to take control in the third quarter, and McCarthy will toss a pair of TD passes. A late interception by freshman phenom Will Johnson seals the victory. The experience from last year pays off, and Michigan earns a shot at its first national championship since 1997.
Final score: Michigan 34, TCU 23
