Zach Edey has carried Purdue to the Final Four, and the only thing standing between the Boilermakers and the national title game is a meeting with the 11-seed NC State Wolfpack this Saturday (6:00 p.m. ET, TBS/Sling).
Like him or hate him, Edey has been dominant. And with the type of statistical performances he has been putting up, he has obviously generated betting interest in the player prop market.
Across Purdue's four March Madness games, the 7-4, 300-pound behemoth has averaged 30 points, 16.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.8 blocks. He's shooting 65.7 percent from the field in the tournament.
Let's take a look at Edey's player projections for Purdue's Final Four tilt with NC State, and unveil our best bets on the BetMGM and SuperDraft player prop markets for the two-time National Player of the Year.
Zach Edey Final Four stat projections: Best player prop bets for Purdue big vs. NC State
Zach Edey points: Over/under 26.5 (O: -120; U: -105)
Usually, we see the sportsbooks drive the over/under scoring props way higher than where they should be settling, since everyone and their mom likes to be the OVER. Interestingly, though, Edey's points total projection has been listed at a modest 26.5. It does carry a bit of juice, but certainly not near as much as it would take to get us away from betting this OVER.
BetMGM and the other major books must be convinced that NC State coach Kevin Keatts will employ a physical strategy against Edey and try to contain him with double-teams. The Wolfpack do have 6-9, 275-pound big man and newly-minted fan favorite DJ Burns, and they also have 6-10 center Mohamed Diarra. But we saw against Tennessee on Sunday how insanely good Edey has become at drawing fouls — it's going to be difficult for NC State to stop him.
We're not just going with the OVER here because Edey has scored 27-plus in five of Purdue's past six games — we also think he will genuinely get the better of NC State's front court. He should get 10 points on fouls alone, considering the Wolfpack has averaged a brutal 16.3 personal fouls per game on the season (Keatts' squad also committed 16 fouls in each of its past three games).
Duke center Kyle Filipowski is good, but going against him last weekend was not nearly enough practice for the Wolfpack ahead of a meeting with Edey. Filpowski gives up four inches, 70 pounds, and a ton of brute strength when you stack him against Edey, and nobody on NC State stands a chance at stopping him. Bet the OVER with confidence.
BEST BET: Edey OVER 26.5 points (-120)
Zach Edey rebounds: Over/under 13.5 (O: -140; U: +105)
Another way in which Edey has dominated: rebounding. He has grabbed 14-plus boards in three consecutive games, and he has 65 total through four contests in the tournament.
That's not great news for an NC State team that surrendered 36.1 opponent rebounds per game, which ranks 258th in the nation. Smash the OVER here and don't worry about the juice.
BEST BET: Edey OVER 13.5 rebounds (-140)
MORE PROPS: Best Purdue/NC State player props
Zach Edey first field goal: +210
We usually stay the heck away from "first" anything, whether it be "first field goal," "first touchdown," or "first home run." However, in a game we like Purdue to control from the opening tip, we don't mind betting Edey at two-to-one odds to score the first basket.
Let's break it down, here: Edey's 7-4, 300 pounds, and easily the biggest focal point of Matt Painter's offense — he should be the one taking and making the first bucket of the game.
BEST BET: Edey to score the game's first field goal (+210)
Zach Edey assists: Over/under 1.5 (O: -155; U: +115)
The one thing we won't touch with a 10-foot pole in this game is Edey's assist projection. It's far too volatile a prop for Edey, who Painter never relies on for dishing the rock.
The OVER is clearly juiced up because oddsmakers expect Kevin Keatts to throw a bunch of double-teams onto the big man. However, the way Purdue shot the ball from outside last game, how can we even trust that? We recommend simply staying away altogether.
BEST BET: Stay away
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