UNC at Duke
6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Duke -1 Total: 160.5
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Trends: UNC 24-6 SU, 12-17-1 ATS, 16-14 O/U. Duke 22-8 SU, 13-14-2 ATS, 12-17 O/U.
KenPom efficiency ratings: UNC 5 (overall), 3 (offense), 40 (defense). Duke 17, 4, 94
Effective FG percentage: UNC 52.3, Duke 54.1 EFG% against: UNC 47.8, Duke 49.2
Pick: Duke opened as a 1-point favorite, but early betting action made UNC a favorite as of Saturday morning. Duke won outright two weeks ago as a 7.5-point underdogs, extending a run of dogs in this series. The favorite is just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
The Tar Heels are getting 80 percent of the betting action, per Sports Insights. This number hasn't been adjusted much from the last time these two teams played if each is given four for home-court advantage.
But the UNDER has been a strong play on UNC (10-7) in conference and on the road (4-6). Seven straight Duke games have gone UNDER, as well. We'll take these two teams to keep it under 160 points.
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