Trae Young’s college basketball career is just five games old, and he’s already doing things we’ve never seen before. Just 19 years old, the 6-2 point guard’s opening stanza has been unique, sitting firmly at the intersection of youth, offense and size (or lack thereof).
Oh, and really, really deep shooting range:
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Based on statistical output alone, Young ought to be considered a special player. Through five games, he’s using 34.7 percent of Oklahoma’s offensive possessions while scoring 36.2 points and dishing out 11.0 assists per 40 minutes. Only four other high major freshmen guards since 2009-10 (min. 100 minutes played) have accounted for more than 30.0 percent of their team’s possessions over the course of a season. Two of those players, D’Angelo Russell and Markelle Fultz, were selected with a top-two pick in the NBA Draft. Another one, Tony Wroten, went late in the first round. All of them were 6-4 or taller.
Young isn’t just distinct because of his diminutive size. He has the highest usage rate of the bunch and, for now, the most efficient scoring package. The freshman guard currently boasts a 65.1 true shooting percentage, making him a one-of-a-kind NBA prospect in the last decade.
Of course, size matters, and there’s more to basketball than scoring, which is why Young currently figures to fall somewhere closer to Wroten’s draft slot than Russell’s or Fultz’s, but the Sooner standout has already made a strong impression.
Young ended up at Oklahoma, according to him, because of the way head coach Lon Kruger handles his backcourt.
"He lets his guards play the way I want to play. He's going to give me a lot of freedom, but he’s also going to teach me the game and expand my knowledge of the game," the 19-year old said during his announcement ceremony back in February.
Young’s usage numbers obviously suggest he’s a player with plenty of freedom to operate. Nearly every facet of the Sooners’ offense runs through their point guard, and nearly all of their point guard’s offense runs through his jump shot. Young is hoisting 11.3 3-point attempts per 40 minutes so far this season, but what makes him most dangerous is his ability to pull up off the dribble from well behind the arc. It’s a scheme-changing skill that should shape how opposing teams defend his squad:
The freshman’s movement from his dribble into his jumper is clean, leaving little time for defenders to react if they slouch off him in any way. And although Young occasionally just dribbles into a spot, pauses then launches, he has a tight enough handle and enough moves in his pocket to create space to get his shot away when necessary despite its lower release point. As he becomes more comfortable pulling up out of those dribble moves, his jumper will be even more potent.
Currently, Young ranks in the 57th percentile nationally on pull-ups, per Synergy, but his ability to create those looks will be important in the NBA, and the accuracy will presumably come given that between his voluminous 3-point attempts and his high free throw percentage, Young already projects to be a better than 40.0 percent 3-point shooter in the league.
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The jump shot unlocks everything else for him. With defenders locked onto him and a filthy hesitation move that threatens to turn into a jumper, Young is able to get to the rim at a reasonably high clip in the halfcourt. as 26.4 percent of his non-transition field goal attempts have been layups or dunks this season, per Hoop-Math. That’s about on par with the 2016-17 rate for Kansas’ Frank Mason, but well below high-volume prospects like Jawun Evans, De’Aaron Fox and Dennis Smith Jr.
The problems with Young’s physical profile are apparent when he gets to the rim. He lacks the length and vertical explosiveness to be a high-efficiency scorer around the basket. His decision to shoot nearly every layup as a scoop shot or finger roll doesn’t help things, as it exposes the ball to defenders and naturally creates a lower release point:
So far this season, Young is shooting just 41.2 percent at the rim, good for the 22nd percentile nationally, per Synergy. While he’s getting fouled at a high rate, Young’s efficiency around the basket will likely always be a problem due to his frame and lack of elite athleticism, limiting his NBA upside.
However, his aptitude for getting into the middle of the defense is valuable because he’s an excellent passer who can find open teammates all around the floor. Young shows good vision in both the halfcourt and out in transition as well as a nice feel for where his fellow Sooners will be. He loves throwing one-handed whip passes and and wrapping around defenders down low for dump offs or corner 3s:
Young’s tendency to sling some risky passes has certainly increased his turnover rate, however. He’s averaging 4.6 turnovers per 40 minutes this season, but still has a better than 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio due to his assist volume. Young does have a habit of tossing passes into longer defenders, but an NBA team shouldn’t be afraid to put him in charge of their second unit offense long-term as his decision-making figures to improve over time.
For as good as Young is offensively, he’s equally as rough on defense. It may be tempting to shrug off his deficiencies on that end due to his high offensive load, but he rarely gets into a stance, is frequently caught ball watching and sometimes doesn’t even attempt to stop penetration:
Given his lack of size and athleticism, Young will probably always be a target for opposing offenses looking for someone to pick on. He’s not quick enough to stay in front of the quickest guards and not big enough to defend anyone else. Effort will be essential if he wants to be anything more than awful. Even then, it’s hard to imagine him turning into a positive NBA defender unless he’s able to consistently create a high number of steals, which is a possibility.
Faced with those shortfalls, Young’s NBA value largely lies in his offensive upside. His ball-handling, pull-up game and passing are terrific for a player his age, and his deep 3-point range can help alter how opposing teams defend. What he lacks in size and athleticism and how that hinders his scoring at the rim and his own defense will lower his overall ceiling.
Right now, Young feels like a quality backup option who could go late in the first round given the 2018 NBA Draft lacks depth at point guard, but don’t let the fact that he’s not a lottery pick deter you from tuning into an Oklahoma game or two. You might see something you’ve never seen before.