The 2023 March Madness Tournament has been one of the more surprising in NCAA tourney history with plenty of upsets by Cinderella squads. But in some cases — like the Midwest Region — chalk still rules. Four of the top five seeds, including No. 2 Texas and No. 3 Xavier, remain alive in the Midwest, and those two squads will square off against each other in the Sweet 16 at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City on Friday night (9:45 p.m. ET, CBS).
The Longhorns were able to withstand a late second-half surge by the hot-shooting Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday, eventually prevailing 71-66 to advance past the Round of 32. Their big lead over PSU had dwindled to three points with less than five minutes remaining, but Texas studs Dylan Disu and Marcus Carr rallied the Longhorns to a 10-0 run to reclaim momentum. All told, Disu had 28 points and 10 rebounds while Carr finished with 10/3/3. The Longhorns shot a miserable 1-of-13 from three-point range, but they made up for it by shooting 62.5 percent from two, winning the rebounding battle, and committing just five total turnovers.
Xavier knows a little something about staving off momentum from a double-digit seed. In the first round, the Musketeers started hot but then got punched in the mouth by a scrappy Kennesaw State team. The Owls had a 13-point lead with 11 minutes and change to go and led nearly the entire second half up to the two-minute mark. Xavier rallied behind Jerome Hunter (24 points), Adam Kunkel hit a massive go-ahead three-pointer, and 7-footer Jack Nunge had a clutch block to deny what would have been the game-winning Kennesaw State layup. In contrast, Xavier's 84-73 second-round win over Pitt was smooth sailing, although the Musketeers still got out-scored 39-36 in the second half.
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Xavier will have to play a full 40 minutes with its foot on the proverbial gas or this Texas team will steamroll over the Muskateers like a Longhorn over a mouse. Let's get right into this Sweet 16 matchup, analyze some stats and trends, and make our best bets and predictions for Texas vs. Xavier.
Texas vs. Xavier odds
Per BetMGM, Texas currently sits as a 4.5-point favorite with a large total of 148.5. The Longhorns' moneyline price of -190 gives them an implied win probability of over 65 percent. The over/under, while seemingly massive, is actually 10.4 points under these teams' combined per-game scoring averages (158.9). However, Texas and Xavier have held their collective opponents to a combined average of 141 points per game, 7.5 below the 148.5 mark.
- Spread: Texas -4.5 (-105) | Xavier +4.5 (-115)
- Total: OVER 148.5 (-115) | UNDER 148.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Texas -190 | Xavier +155
Three betting trends to watch
— Texas has won six consecutive games, and the Longhorns are 6-0-1 against the spread in their past seven games. Xavier has won five of its past six games but has gone just 2-4 ATS in that span.
— Xavier has gone 19-16-1 ATS this season — and 7-3-1 as an underdog — but each squad is just .500 ATS at neutral sites.
— The OVER has gone 22-13-1 in Xavier's games this season, however, the UNDER has gone a combined 6-10 when these squads play at neutral sites.
— All five of Sporting News' main NCAA experts had Texas representing the Midwest Region in the 2023 Final Four.
Texas key players
The Longhorns' top-scoring duo all season has been senior guards Marcus Carr and Sir'Jabari Rice, who combined to average 28.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 6.0 assists on the campaign. However, it's been senior forward Dylan Disu who has emerged as Texas's tournament hero, logging 17 points and 10 boards in the first round against Colgate and 28 and 10 in the second-round nail-biter against Penn State. Disu has played bigger than his 6-9, 225-pound frame, which has been instrumental to the undersized Horns' success. Texas has six players who can score in the teens on any given night, but the interior scoring and double-digit boards Disu has provided could continue to help Texas make its move toward a national championship.
Xavier key players
Xavier had a whopping six players finish its second-round victory over Pitt with at least 10 points, including regular-season scoring leaders Souley Boum and Colby Jones. Seniors Jack Nunge and Adam Kunkel served as the x-factors, leading the Musketeers with 18 points and 15 points, respectively, and making some key defensive stands and huge shots. Jerome Hunter has also been big for Xavier, utilizing his 6-8 length, quick first step, athleticism, and hops to get to the hoop and finish strong. This Musketeers squad packs a potent offensive punch, ranking in the top 12 in the nation in scoring with 81.2 points per game.
Best individual matchup: Dylan Disu vs. Jerome Hunter
Both transfers from other schools (Disu from Vanderbilt and Hunter from Indiana), these two have emerged as the main catalysts in their respective teams' offenses. They are similarly sized (Disu is 6-9, 225 while Hunter is 6-8, 216), and both do most of their damage within the three-point line. We have a good opportunity to see a strong one-on-one battle between these two at all three levels. Don't be surprised if they both wind up with around 20 points and between five and 10 boards each.
Texas vs. Xavier: Stat to know
Xavier ranked 11th in the nation in per-game scoring this season and has averaged 79 points per game over its past eight contests. Texas last gave up more than 79 points on Feb. 25 when it lost to the Baylor Bears 81-72. The Longhorns then lost to TCU 75-73 on March 1 but have not lost in the six games since. Texas has allowed just 58.2 points per game during that six-game winning streak.
Texas vs. Xavier prediction
Texas may not have the size or three-point shooting that Xavier has atop its core rotation, but it more than makes up for those deficiencies with its well-rounded game. The Longhorns can not only score with the best of the nation, but they have also played superb defense over their six-game winning streak. Texas also has a handful of players who can get red hot, but Disu has been particularly special under the bright lights of March Madness. Five of our experts predicted the Longhorns to make the Final Four, so we're not backing away from them now. We'll be either betting Texas's moneyline, buying the 'Horns a couple of points, or making a four-point teaser with the 'Horns -0.5 and UNDER 152.5. You can never have enough insurance in close battles like these.
Prediction: Texas 76, Xavier 72. Texas (-4.5) wins but Xavier covers, with the game going UNDER the total (148.5). Consider betting the Longhorns' moneyline (-190) or buying them a couple points. You can also get Texas by 1-5 points at +325 or play a four-point teaser with Texas -0.5 and UNDER 152.5.
