In the first matchup of Saturday's Final Four doubleheader, the fifth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs (-1.5) battle the ninth-seeded Florida Atlantic Owls with a trip to National Championship on the line (6:09 p.m. ET, CBS).
It's certainly not a matchup many expected at this stage, but that's the beauty of a win-or-go-home tournament. After taking down top-seeded Alabama in the Sweet 16, the Aztecs put on another defensive masterpiece against Creighton in the Elite Eight. The Aztecs rallied from a seven-point second-half deficit, in part to their ability to run the Bluejays off the three-point line, holding one of the Big East's best perimeter shooting teams to a season-low 11.8-percent shooting from deep.
San Diego State also walled up from the interior when it mattered most, with starting center Nathan Mensah forcing Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner into several contested looks down the stretch. Of course, many will remember the last-second foul on Aztec guard Darrion Trammell as the deciding moment in this one, but the Bluejays had ample opportunities to extend their multi-possession lead so the game didn't have to be decided on that play. Officiating is part of the game, and credit to Creighton head coach Greg McDermott for handling the loss with class while tipping his cap to a sound defensive performance from Brian Dutcher's Aztecs.
In Florida Atlantic's Elite Eight rock fight against Kansas State, the Owls also rallied from a seven-point second-half deficit, relying on their inside-out game to get past the fifth-seeded Wildcats. While Kansas State shot the three-ball at a higher clip, Florida Atlantic hit clutch threes in crunch time and relied on starting center Vladislav Goldin to take advantage against a susceptible Kansas State interior defense.
FAU connected on 54.8 percent of its two-point shots (17-of-31) while staying calm at the charity stripe, sinking 81.8 percent of its foul shots (18-of-22 FT). The Owls' once again displayed their balanced scoring load, with four starters scoring in double-figures. Against the nation's fourth-rated defense per KenPom, having multiple players who can get their own is crucial in FAU's hope of advancing to the title game.
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Here's everything to know about betting on San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for this Final Four matchup.
San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic odds
- Spread: San Diego State -2.5 (-110); Florida Atlantic +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 131.5 (-110); UNDER 131.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: San Diego State -150; Florida Atlantic +125
Per BetMGM, another tightly contested game is expected, with San Diego State currently sitting as short 2.5-point favorites. The Aztecs are back in the favorite role after closing as underdogs in their past two games, while FAU is priced as an underdog for the fourth time in five tournament games. The betting market is also expecting another defensive-minded contest, with the total sitting at 131.5 points.
Three betting trends to watch
— Florida Atlantic's thrived in the underdog role this season, covering in six of eight games in which it's closed as 'dogs. FAU's gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament as underdogs.
— Spread bettors who've been riding the Aztecs have cashed in lately, with San Diego State covering in six straight games.
— The Aztecs are also an UNDER bettors' dream team, with the UNDER going 22-14 in SDSU games this season (61-percent win rate).
San Diego State key players
What makes the Aztecs so lethal is their ability to rely on a multitude of scoring options. San Diego State's leading scorer, Matt Bradley (12.5 ppg, 40.1 FG%), had an off-shooting day in the Elite Eight (two points, one-of-eight FG), but fellow guards Lamont Butler (18 points, eight-of-11 FG) and Darrion Trammell (12 points, five-of-14 FG) picked him up with efficient scoring performances. Coach Dutcher's gone nine-deep for the majority of the tournament, with bench pieces Jaedon LeDee and Aguek Arop scoring clutch baskets in the Aztecs' past two games. Additionally, Mensah's elite interior defense is a major reason why the Aztecs advanced to the Final Four, and his rim protection will be needed if SDSU wants to claim its first National Championship in school history.
Florida Atlantic key players
For Florida Atlantic to keep its Cinderella run going, it will need leading scorers Johnell Davis (13.9 ppg, 49.3 FG%) and Alijah Martin (13.1 ppg, 43.4 FG%) to score off the bounce against a stifling San Diego State defense. In their Sweet 16 win over Tennessee, the Owls' scored an impressive 1.07 points per possession against the nation's most efficient defense, so it's possible they have success against the Aztecs' fourth-rated defense. FAU will also need fellow guards Bryan Greenlee (7.4 ppg, 41.8 FG%) and Nicholas Boyd (8.9 ppg, 44.7 FG%) to chip in, along with Goldin (10.3 ppg, 62.7 FG%) posing as a threat from the interior.
Best individual matchup: Nathan Mensah vs. Vladislav Goldin
Mensah's defensive prowess was on display this past weekend when he recorded five blocks while helping San Diego State hold Alabama to 0.86 points per possession. In Sunday's win over Creighton, Kalkbrenner led the Bluejays with 17 points, but shot below his season average from the field, in part to Mensah's ability to consistently contest his shots. Goldin's shot at an efficient clip this season (62.2 eFG%), but he could have his hands full going against Mensah and the rest of the Aztecs' frontcourt for 40 minutes.
San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic stat to know
While FAU has shot and made the three-ball at a high clip this season (36.5 3P%), San Diego State's perimeter defense will make it tough for the Owls to shoot near their season average. The Aztecs sport the nation's second-best three-point defense, holding opponents to a 27.8-percent clip from behind the arc. In its past two games, SDSU held Alabama to three-of-27 shooting from deep (11.1 percent) and most recently limited Creighton to two-of-17 shooting from three (11.8 percent). Teams who rely heavily on threes sometimes need to find other ways to score when playing in front of 70,000 fans, with the depth perception of shooting in a football stadium negatively affecting them. If FAU shies away from attempting threes at its normal rate, look for Goldin to attempt his fair share of shots, making the battle of the big men the matchup to watch on Saturday.
San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic prediction
The Aztecs' ability to run the Owls off the three-point line could be the difference in this one, and for that reason, we'll side with SDSU to grind out a one-possession victory en route to a National Championship appearance. Mensah holds his own against Goldin down low while the Aztecs hit a couple of clutch shots in crunch time to keep their title hopes alive.
Prediction: San Diego State 66, Florida Atlantic 63. San Diego State (-2.5) covers the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (131.5).
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