In the first game on Friday evening, No. 5 seed San Diego State will play No. 1 seed Alabama at 6:30 p.m. ET in Louisville at the KFC Yum! Center (TBS).
The Aztecs took down back-to-back double-digit seeds (No. 12 seed Charleston and No. 13 seed Furman) en route to their Sweet 16 matchup against the Crimson Tide. In the first round, San Diego State survived a scare from the College of Charleston, ultimately defeating the Cougars 63-57. Matt Bradley was the lone double-digit scorer for San Diego State with 17 points (7-15 FG, 1-4 3pt). He also added seven rebounds (second-best on the Aztecs) and four assists. After they beat the Cougars, the Aztecs dominated Furman, 75-52, in the second round. San Diego State received a better performance from their offense, as four players cracked double figures. This is the first time in the Brian Dutcher era that the Aztecs have made it past the first weekend.
Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide has racked up two blowout wins over No. 16 seed Texas A&M Corpus-Christi (96-75) and No. 8 seed Maryland (73-51). Junior forward Nick Pringle led 'Bama in scoring with 19 points on the bench. He also had a team-high 15 rebounds (10 def boards). Star freshman forward Brandon Miller did not play well in his tournament debut, posting zero points (0-5 FG, 0-3 3pt), five rebounds, and three assists in 19 minutes. However, Miller bounced back in Alabama's win over Maryland, scoring 19 points (5-17 FG, 2-6 3pt) and adding seven rebounds. Senior guard Jahvon Quinerly was the leading scorer for the Crimson Tide with 22 points (9-14 FG, 4-6 3pt).
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Here's everything to know about betting on San Diego State vs. Alabama in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for the Sweet 16 matchup.
San Diego State vs. Alabama odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
The Crimson Tide are 7.5-point favorites over the Aztecs heading into Friday night's Sweet 16 contest after the spread opened at 6.5. Alabama is receiving 55 percent of the bets (50 percent of the handle) and 52 percent of the bets (55 percent of the handle) on the money line. The point total is set at 136.5.
- Spread: Alabama -7.5 (-110); San Diego State +7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 136.5 (-115); UNDER 136.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Alabama -350; San Diego State +275
Three betting trends to watch
— The Crimson Tide are 18-12-1 against this season as a favorite and 6-1 ATS with four-plus days off.
— The Aztecs are 1-2 ATS as an underdog this season and 4-6-1 ATS with four-plus days off. San Diego State is also 5-7-1 ATS in non-conference games.
— Alabama is 6-8-1 ATS in non-conference games this season but 12-3 straight up on the money line.
San Diego State key players
The Aztecs are led by senior guard Matt Bradley, who was named to the All-Mountain West first team. This season, Bradley is averaging a team-high 13 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.1 rebounds per game. Through two NCAA tourney games, the 6-4 guard is averaging 13.5 points, five rebounds, and three assists per game. Along with Bradley, opponents have to watch out for Darrion Trammell (9.5 PPG, 3.2 APG, 2.2 RPG), Lamont Butler (8.6 PPG), Micah Parrish (7.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG), and Jaedon LeDee (7.8 PPG and 5.2 RPG).
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
Alabama key players
The Crimson Tide have three players scoring in double figures, led by Brandon Miller, who is averaging 19.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. The freshman forward is shooting 44.1 percent from the field and 39.5 percent from three-point range. Miller was named to the Consensus All-America second team this season for his efforts. Mark Sears (12.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, and 2.6 APG) and Noah Clowney (10 PPG and 7.9 RPG) round out Alabama's top-three scorers. The Aztecs must watch out for Jahvon Quinerly, who has scored 20 or more points in two of his past three games.
Best individual matchup: Matt Bradley vs. Jahvon Quinerly
Brandon Miller is the headliner in Friday evening's game, but we know the game will come down to how the guards perform. Bradley did not shoot the ball well in San Diego State's win over Furman (10 points on 3/10 FG and 0/3 3pt), but the team played great defense and received contributions from other players. However, for the Aztecs to advance, Bradley has to be the leading scorer on Friday night. As for Quinerly, he doesn't need to be the top scorer, as the Tide have Sears and Miller. However, if Quinerly can play as he did in the second round against Maryland, 'Bama will be tough to stop. The former Villanova guard has played well this month, averaging 14.8 points per game on 45.6 percent shooting from the field and 36.4 percent from beyond the arc (seven games). Whoever gets the upper hand in this matchup on Friday evening will dictate how this game plays out.
San Diego State vs. Alabama stat to know
The Aztecs enter Friday's game with one of the best defenses in the country (63.1 points per game, 25th in the NCAA) and a DRtg of 94.1. San Diego State also defends the three-point line exceptionally well at 28.8 percent (sixth in the NCAA) and gives up 31.2 rebounds per game (30th in the NCAA). However, the Crimson Tide have a good offense, scoring 82.3 points per game (fifth in the NCAA) and boasting a 111.1 ORtg (34th in the country). But do not sleep on Alabama's three-point defense, as they allowed opponents to shoot just 28.1 percent this season.
San Diego State vs. Alabama prediction
The Crimson Tide will not win this game by double digits on Friday, as the Aztecs' defense is one of the best in the NCAA. San Diego State will want to slow the pace, as the Tide have an explosive offense led by Miller, Sears, and Quinerly. We'll still take Alabama to advance to the Elite 8, but the Aztecs will cover and take it down to the wire.
Prediction: Alabama 68, San Diego State 64. San Diego State (+7.5) covers the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (136.5).
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