Duke and North Carolina match up on Wednesday (9 p.m. ET, ESPN) for the 73rd time when both teams have been ranked in the top 25. They have split the previous 72 such meetings, 36-36, per ESPN Stats & Info.
Duke, though, has dominated the series in recent years, going 8-3 SU in its last 11 games vs North Carolina. Duke has covered the spread in six of the 11 meetings, but just one of the last four at home, though.
Duke is an 8.5-point favorite tonight, with a total of 154.5 (check The Linemakers on Sporting News' odds page for current point spreads and totals)
The average score after 10,000-plus simulations performed by AccuScore is Duke 82, UNC 71, and there’s about a 53 percent chance the total combined score stays UNDER 154.5.
In terms of close win (4 points or less) potential, UNC's probability is fairly comparable to Duke's: 7.8 percent vs. 10.4 percent. Big win potential, however, is a whole different story, as Duke has about 10 times the chance of North Carolina at winning by ten or more points.
AccuScore best bet: There's about a 58 percent chance Duke covers a -8.5 spread, a 1-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. North Carolina is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
Projected Leaders - UNC
Brice Johnson: 13 points, 7 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block, 2 TOs
Marcus Paige: 13 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds, 1 steal
Projected Leaders - Duke
Jahlil Okafor: 20 points, 9 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block, 3 TOs
Quinn Cook: 13 points, 5 assists, 3 rebounds, 2 steals
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