It's not all chalk heading into the Elite Eight of the 2024 Women's Basketball Tournament.
Which No. 3 is going to break through to the Women's Final Four?
No. 1 South Carolina (35-0) takes on No. 3 Oregon State in the Regional 1 final in Albany, N.Y. The Gamecocks are still on track for a perfect season, and the Beavers are trying to prolong the Pac-12 season.
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No. 1 Texas (33-4) takes on No. 3 NC State (30-6) in the Regional 4 final in Portland, Ore., showdown between elite teams from the Big 12 and ACC.
On Monday, No. 1 Iowa (32-4) and No. 3 LSU (31-5) meet in a rematch of last year's national championship game in Regional 2 in Albany. The matchup has been anticipated since the bracket was released.
MORE: Breaking down the Iowa-LSU rematch
No. 1 USC (29-5) takes on No. 3 UConn (32-5) in Regional 4 in Portland. The Trojans are looking for their first Final Four since 1986. The Huskies are looking for a 23rd Final Four appearance under Geno Auriemma.
This year's Women's Final Four is April 5-7 at the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland.
Here are our picks for the Women's Elite Eight matchups on Sunday and Monday. (Lines courtesy of BetMGM.com).
Women's Elite Eight picks, predictions
Sunday, March 31
No. 1 South Carolina (-14.5) vs. No. 3 Oregon State (Regional 1, Albany)
Oregon State shot 60.4% from the floor but had 26 turnovers in the 70-65 victory against No. 2 Notre Dame in the Sweet 16. A similar performance here would lead to a blowout loss. Raegan Beers averages 15.7 points and 9.3 rebounds in the tournament, and Timea Gardiner averages 16.3 points and 8.6 rebounds. Gardiner was the clutch shot maker against the Irish. South Carolina let a 22-point lead dwindle in a 79-75 victory against No. 4 Indiana, which Dawn Staley can use as motivation here. Kamila Cardoso had 22 points on 10 of 12 shooting, and the interior battle with Beers will be a tone-setter. The Gamecocks surround Cardoso with efficient 3-point shooters and are shooting 43.3% from 3-point range in the tournament. That formula works, and Oregon State will not be able to overcome the turnovers this time.
Pick: South Carolina 85, Oregon State 73
No. 1 Texas (-5.5) vs. No. 3 NC State (Regional 4, Portland)
Which style wins out? Vic Schaefer – who led Mississippi State to a pair of Final Four appearances in 2017-18 – has a chance to do the same with Texas. The Longhorns have a +10.3 rebounding margin for the season – a number that is +18 per game in the tournament. The Longhorns shot 50% from the floor and 50% from 3-point range against Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. That front line led by Madison Booker (16.5 ppg.), Taylor Jones (12.4 ppg.) and Aaliyah Moore (11.3 ppg.) are tough, but guards Shaylee Gonzalez (9.6 ppg.) and Shay Hollie (7.6 ppg.) are in focus in this matchup. That’s because NC State guards Aziaha James (16.4 ppg.) and Saniya Rivers (12.7 ppg.) have combined for an average of 40 points per game through three tournament victories, and the Wolfpack are playing their best basketball right now. NC State is playing tough 3-point defense and has a +19 turnover ratio for the tournament. The Longhorns make it a grind-it-out game, but that rebounding adds up. Texas returns to the Final Four for the first time since 2003.
Pick: Texas 67, NC State 61
Monday, April 1
No. 1 Iowa (-1.5) vs. No. 3 LSU (Regional 2, Albany)
Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese will get most of the attention in the lead-up, and deservedly so. Clark is scoring 29.3 points with 9.3 assists in the tournament, and she is coming off a 15-assist performance against Colorado. Reese averages 15.3 points and 13.7 rebounds and impacts the game on both sides of the floor. Yet it's more about the role players in this game. Who steps up for Iowa around Clark? Forward Hannah Stuelke (14.1 ppg.) has to stay out of foul trouble against that Tigers' front line, and Kate Martin (12.8 ppg.) has to help take pressure off Clark against an LSU backcourt that includes freshman Mikaylah Williams (14.5 ppg.), sophomore Flau'jae Johnson (14.4 ppg.) and Louisville transfer Hailey Van Lith (11.8 ppg.). Johnson made the clutch shots in the Sweet 16 victory against UCLA. LSU shoots 40.6% from 3-point range, but will they knock down enough to counter that high-volume shooting from the Hawkeyes? Iowa attempts 29.5 shots from 3-point range per game, and LSU ranks second in the nation with a 10.3 rebounding margin. How do those numbers settle within the flow of the game? LSU absolutely can win the rematch and will not shy away from an up-and-down game. This is Clark's game to shine – and she will make the right plays at the right times in a thriller.
Pick: Iowa 84, LSU 82
No. 1 USC vs. No. 3 UConn (-3) (Regional 4, Portland)
USC has the classic inside-outside combination that can make a Final Four dream possible. JuJu Watkins scored 30 points in the 74-70 victory against Baylor in the Sweet 16. She is scoring 27 ppg. in the tournament with a 37.3% shooting percentage. Center Riyah Marshall averages 10 points and 10.3 rebounds. UConn counters with Paige Bueckers – an all-around talent who has averages 28 points with 8.6 rebounds and 4.7 assists in the tournament. Forward Aaliyah Edwards (17.6 ppg.) will match up with Marshall in what should be a physical battle on the interior. The number to watch for the Trojans is 45.6%. UConn is 1-5 S/U this season when opposing teams hit that number – and that includes losses to Elite Eight teams in South Carolina, Texas and NC State. USC coach Lindsay Gottlieb could keep the Pac-12 alive for one more week after an instant classic, and Watkins can make that a reality. It is just difficult to envision a Women's Final Four of this magnitude without Auriemma finding a way to get the Huskies a trip to Cleveland.
Pick: UConn 69, USC 65
