Field of 68: UCLA takes final No. 1 seed in SN's first NCAA Tournament projection

Ryan Fagan

Field of 68: UCLA takes final No. 1 seed in SN's first NCAA Tournament projection image

Hi there, college hoops fans.

It’s time for Sporting News’ first Field of 68 update of the season. As always, we choose start this informational exercise a few games into the conference season, when resumes have some depth and the statistical ratings (Pomeroy, Sagarin. KPI, RPI, etc.) start to make more sense. We'll provide a full update every Monday through the end of the season. 

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And, as always, with the Sporting News projection we’re trying to give you a snapshot of why teams are projected at their current seed line. Hypothetical brackets are fun, we know, but instead our goal is to give you the information that will be used by the selection committee — a mix of statistics and other relevant facts for every single at-large team. Basically, this is where we think the committee would seed teams based on what they’ve accomplished through Sunday’s games. 

Note: Automatic bids are given to the team with the best conference record, with Pomeroy rating used as the tiebreaker. Note, part 2: All RPI numbers are from CBSSports.com. 

No. 1 seeds: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas (Big 12), UCLA

Villanova (15-1): Pomeroy/RPI: 3/1. vs. RPI top 25: 3-1. vs. RPI top 100: 10-1
Baylor (15-0): Pomeroy/RPI: 7/2. vs. RPI top 25: 3-0. vs. RPI top 100: 9-0
Kansas (14-1): Pomeroy/RPI: 6/4. vs. RPI top 25: 1-0. vs. RPI top 100: 9-0
UCLA (16-1): Pomeroy/RPI: 13/21. vs. RPI top 25: 1-1. vs. RPI top 100: 6-1

Need to know: Villanova, Baylor and Kansas are easy picks for the top seed line. Then there's the Bruins. It’s not often you’ll see a No. 1 seed with computer numbers consistently in double-digits (you see the Pom/RPI numbers, and UCLA is 24th in the KPI and 13th in the Sagarin ratings, too). Those numbers are down largely because, as a whole, the Bruins played a non-conference schedule full of bad teams (seven ranked 213th or worse in the Pomeroy ratings). But it’s hard to imagine the committee would value that over what the Bruins did in their games against top competition — their win on the road at Kentucky is the single-most impressive victory of the season. And they have quality wins against Ohio State, Nebraska and Texas A&M away from home, too. The lone loss? By two points at Oregon. No shame in that, so the UCLA gets the fourth spot.   

MORE: How Baylor rescued itself from dumpster fire

No. 2 seeds: Kentucky (SEC), Gonzaga (West Coast), Florida State (ACC), Duke

Kentucky (13-2): Pomeroy/RPI: 1/8. vs. RPI top 25: 1-2. vs. RPI top 100: 6-2
Gonzaga (15-0): Pomeroy/RPI: 9/13. vs. RPI top 25: 2-0. vs. RPI top 100: 5-0
Florida State (15-1): Pomeroy/RPI: 20/11. vs. RPI top 25: 4-0. vs. RPI top 100: 8-1
Duke (14-2): Pomeroy/RPI: 8/15. vs. RPI top 25: 1-1. vs. RPI top 100: 5-2

Need to know: The can-they-go-undefeated watch is on for the Gonzaga Bulldogs, after they passed their toughest non-conference tests (Florida, Arizona, Iowa State and Tennessee, all away from home). The biggest challenges are the two games against a very good Saint Mary’s team, at home on January 14th and on the road on February 11th. The biggest surprise of this group is easily Florida State, which has wins against Florida, Minnesota and Virginia (on the road). 

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No. 3 seeds: West Virginia, North Carolina, Creighton, Virginia 

West Virginia (13-2): Pomeroy/RPI: 2/40. vs. RPI top 25: 1-0. vs. RPI top 100: 4-2
North Carolina (14-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 5/16. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 8-1
Creighton (15-1): Pomeroy/RPI: 19/6. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 7-1
Virginia (12-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 4/18. vs. RPI top 25: 2-1. vs. RPI top 100: 5-3

Need to know: North Carolina had lost three consecutive games away from home (Indiana, Kentucky and … Georgia Tech — yikes) before beating a good Clemson team on the road. The Tar Heels have a lot of talent, but they’ll have to be better away from Chapel Hill if they’re going to earn a top-two seed.

No. 4 seeds: Butler, Oregon, Louisville, Florida

Butler (14-2): Pomeroy/RPI: 15/7. vs. RPI top 25: 3-0. vs. RPI top 100: 7-0
Oregon (15-2): Pomeroy/RPI: 21/10. vs. RPI top 25: 1-1. vs. RPI top 100: 6-2
Louisville (13-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 10/9. vs. RPI top 25: 1-3. vs. RPI top 100: 4-3
Florida (12-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 14/3. vs. RPI top 25: 0-3. vs. RPI top 100: 7-3

Need to know: Butler has an odd resume. On one hand, they have super-impressive wins against Villanova, Arizona, Indiana and Cincinnati, but they’ve lost to Indiana State and St. John’s, two teams with zero chance of earning an at-large bid. Those two losses are why they’re not on the 2 or 3 line this week. Oregon has the two losses, but one (Baylor) came without star Dillon Brooks and the other (Georgetown) came in his first game back, when he played just a handful of minutes. The committee will factor that into its decision. 

MORE: How Louisville snapped its ugly skid vs. Kentucky

No. 5 seeds: Purdue (Big Ten), Xavier (Big East), Arizona (Pac-12), Notre Dame

Purdue (13-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 12/30. vs. RPI top 25: 1-3. vs. RPI top 100: 4-3
Xavier (13-2): Pomeroy/RPI: 22/12. vs. RPI top 25: 1-1. vs. RPI top 100: 4-2
Arizona (15-2): Pomeroy/RPI: 17/14. vs. RPI top 25: 0-2. vs. RPI top 100: 5-2
Notre Dame (14-2): Pomeroy/RPI: 25/25. vs. RPI top 25: 1-1. vs. RPI top 100: 5-2

Need to know: Xavier has a huge opportunity week; the Musketeers could gain a signature victory if they can scratch out a win at Villanova (on Tuesday) or at Butler (on Saturday). The return of senior guard Myles Davis, who missed the first 15 games serving a team suspension, figures to give the team a boost. Notre Dame has started ACC play on the right foot, with three wins against potential NCAA Tournament teams (at Pitt, vs. Louisville, vs. Clemson). With a so-so non-conference portion of the season, the Irish will need more to get a top-four seed. 

No. 6 seeds: Wisconsin, Saint Mary’s, Minnesota, Cincinnati (American)

Wisconsin (13-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 11/49. vs. RPI top 25: 0-2. vs. RPI top 100: 3-3
Saint Mary’s (14-1): Pomeroy/RPI: 18/20. vs. RPI top 25: 1-0. vs. RPI top 100: 3-1
Minnesota (15-2): Pomeroy/RPI: 31/5. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 8-2
Cincinnati (13-2): Pomeroy/RPI: 16/17. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 6-2

Need to know: The thing is, Saint Mary’s has a really good team. But the resume has only one win that will impress the selection committee (at Dayton), which means the two WCC games against Gonzaga are kind of important if the Gaels want to get a seed higher than No. 6. Their first shot is Saturday, when they play on the road against the Zags. Minnesota is the surprise team here; the Golden Gophers have wins against Purdue (on the road), Arkansas, Northwestern and Ohio State, with only losses to Florida State and Michigan State. That’s the start of a solid resume. 

No. 7 seeds: Clemson, Maryland, Southern California, South Carolina

Clemson (11-4): Pomeroy/RPI: 24/33. vs. RPI top 25: 2-3. vs. RPI top 100: 7-3
Maryland (14-2): Pomeroy/RPI: 55/34. vs. RPI top 25: 0-0. vs. RPI top 100: 5-2
Southern California (15-2): Pomeroy/RPI: 51/32. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 2-2
South Carolina (12-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 33/36. vs. RPI top 25: 0-2. vs. RPI top 100: 4-2

Need to know: We’re starting to get into the “nobody’s safe” territory of the seed list. Clemson, for example, is a really good team but the Tigers have had trouble closing out close games against tournament-quality teams (they’ve lost by six or fewer points to Xavier, North Carolina and Notre Dame) and their best win is against South Carolina, another team in this same boat. The Gamecocks only have one mediocre loss (at Memphis), but their best win is against Michigan, another team in this same boat. What we’re saying is there’s work to be done. 

No. 8 seeds: Indiana, Dayton (Atlantic 10), Virginia Tech, SMU

Indiana (11-5): Pomeroy/RPI: 27/109. vs. RPI top 25: 2-2. vs. RPI top 100: 3-4
Dayton (12-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 34/23. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 5-3
Virginia Tech (12-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 43/48. vs. RPI top 25: 1-1. vs. RPI top 100: 4-2
SMU (14-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 26/29. vs. RPI top 25: 0-0. vs. RPI top 100: 4-3

Need to know: Indiana’s resume is … strange, to say the least. The Hoosiers have elite wins against Kansas and North Carolina, but they lost to Fort Wayne on the road and to Nebraska at home. Particularly troubling, resume-wise, is this: Indiana has lost three of its four games away from Bloomington. Virginia Tech is coming off a bad week; the Hokies gave up 104 points in a loss at N.C. State and 93 in a loss at Florida State. They hadn’t given up more than 75 in a game to that point in the season. 

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No. 9 seeds: Seton Hall, Michigan State, Northwestern, Pittsburgh

Seton Hall (12-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 49/37. vs. RPI top 25: 0-2. vs. RPI top 100: 3-3
Michigan State (11-6): Pomeroy/RPI: 47/38. vs. RPI top 25: 1-4. vs. RPI top 100: 5-6
Northwestern (13-4): Pomeroy/RPI: 40/44. vs. RPI top 25: 2-3. vs. RPI top 100: 4-4
Pittsburgh (12-4): Pomeroy/RPI: 53/28. vs. RPI top 25: 1-1. vs. RPI top 100: 5-2

Need to know: If you like college basketball and have anything resembling a soul, you should be rooting for Northwestern to finally snag its first-ever NCAA Tournament bid. The Wildcats are in position, with solid computer numbers, good non-conference wins against Dayton, Wake Forest and Texas and zero resume-damaging losses. If they can hold serve at home, avoid losing to Rutgers and steal a game or two on the road, it could finally happen. 

No. 10 seeds: Michigan, VCU, Arkansas, Wichita State (Missouri Valley)

Michigan (11-5): Pomeroy/RPI: 39/86. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 3-4
VCU (13-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 54/31. vs. RPI top 25: 1-1. vs. RPI top 100: 4-2
Arkansas (12-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 42/26. vs. RPI top 25: 0-3. vs. RPI top 100: 3-3
Wichita State (14-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 23/95. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 1-3

Need to know: Truthfully, there’s very little separating the teams here and on the No. 12 seed line and the first six or seven teams on the bubble. But, hairs have to be split. Hopefully, for the committee’s sake, the next few months provide a ton more information. For instance, at the moment, Michigan’s title at the 2K Classic in November, with wins against Marquette and SMU, is enough to put the Wolverines here. For VCU, it’s the four wins vs. RPI top 100. Margins are thin, folks. Very thin.  

No. 11 seeds: Miami, TCU, Iowa State, UNC Wilmington (Colonial), Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Miami (11-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 36/71. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 2-2
TCU (12-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 37/35. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 3-3
Iowa State (10-4): Pomeroy/RPI: 28/63. vs. RPI top 25: 0-3. vs. RPI top 100: 2-3
Middle Tennessee (13-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 58/19. vs. RPI top 25: 1-0. vs. RPI top 100: 5-2
UNC Wilmington (15-2): Pomeroy/RPI: 46/24. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 2-2

Need to know: Middle Tennessee and Wilmington are both here, for now, as automatic bids. But as you see by their computer numbers, they’ve created the basis for resumes that will put them in consideration for an at-large bid. At this point, it’s most important for them to avoid any unsightly losses in conference play. 

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No. 12 seeds: N.C. State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Boise State (Mountain West), Oakland (Horizon)

N.C. State (12-4): Pomeroy/RPI: 57/27. vs. RPI top 25: 0-2. vs. RPI top 100: 3-4
Texas Tech (12-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 30/61. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 2-3
Oklahoma State (10-5): Pomeroy/RPI: 32/54. vs. RPI top 25: 0-2. vs. RPI top 100: 2-4

Need to know: Texas Tech is here because of the overtime win against West Virginia. That’s it. Otherwise, the resume consists of a bunch of wins against teams they should beat, a no-worries loss at Iowa State and a neutral-court loss to Auburn. To stay in bid-land, the Red Raiders have a lot of work to do. Fortunately, the Big 12 offers lots of opportunities for resume-building wins. Same thing goes for fellow 12-seeder Oklahoma State. 

No. 13 seeds: Ohio (Mid-American), Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun), Vermont (America East), East Tennessee State (Southern)
No. 14 seeds: Bucknell (Patriot), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Princeton (Ivy), New Mexico State (WAC)
No. 15 seeds: North Dakota State (Summit), North Carolina Central (Mid-Eastern), UNC Asheville (Big South), Texas Southern (Southwestern)
No. 16 seeds: Fairfield (Metro Atlantic), Georgia Southern (Sun Belt), UC Irvine (Big West), Weber State (Big Sky), New Orleans (Southland), Fairleigh Dickinson (Northeast)

Bubble teams (in alphabetical order) 

California (11-5): Pomeroy/RPI: 45/64. vs. RPI top 25: 0-3. vs. RPI top 100: 1-4
Kansas State (13-2): Pomeroy/RPI: 29/52. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 0-2
Houston (12-4): Pomeroy/RPI: 41/66. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 2-3
Illinois (11-5): Pomeroy/RPI: 72/43. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 3-3
Marquette (10-5): Pomeroy/RPI: 38/79. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 3-5
Mississippi (10-5): Pomeroy/RPI: 84/39. vs. RPI top 25: 0-4. vs. RPI top 100: 3-5
Nebraska (9-7): Pomeroy/RPI: 88/50. vs. RPI top 25: 1-3. vs. RPI top 100: 2-6
Nevada (14-3): Pomeroy/RPI: 76/41. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 2-2
Rhode Island (10-5): Pomeroy/RPI: 35/42. vs. RPI top 25: 1-2. vs. RPI top 100: 2-5
Wake Forest (10-6): Pomeroy/RPI: 44/22. vs. RPI top 25: 0-4. vs. RPI top 100: 3-6
UT-Arlington (12-4): Pomeroy/RPI: 67/45. vs. RPI top 25: 1-1. vs. RPI top 100: 2-3

Ryan Fagan