March Madness 2017: Sunday's NCAA Tournament bracket projection (final)

Ryan Fagan

March Madness 2017: Sunday's NCAA Tournament bracket projection (final) image

The Selection Sunday show is almost here, finally, so let’s get right to it. 

In a mere couple of minutes, we’ll see the March Madness brackets revealed on CBS, and we’ll finally know what the 2017 NCAA Tournament actually looks like, instead of taking educated guesses every couple of hours like we have for the past couple weeks. Hallelujah.

MORE: Full, updated interactive bracket | Print your bracket here!

We updated the Field of 68 every day this week — this is the FINAL update, after Sunday's games — because that’s what you demand. As always, we’ve tried to give you a look at why teams are projected at their current seed line in the tournament bracket. Our goal is to give you the information that will be used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee: a mix of statistics and other relevant facts for every single at-large team and every single team even remotely on the bubble. 

Note: Automatic bids (noted in parenthesis) are given to teams that have clinched automatic bids (*) or to the highest seed still alive in the conference tournament. Note, part 2: All RPI numbers are from CBSSports.com and all Pomeroy numbers are from KenPom.com (duh). 

NCAA Tournament bracket projection: No. 1 seeds

*Villanova (Big East), Kansas, *Gonzaga (WCC), North Carolina

*Villanova (31-3): Pom/RPI: 2/1. vs. RPI top 25: 3-2. vs. RPI top 100: 17-3
Resume peak: Elite wins away from home (Purdue, Notre Dame, Xavier, Creighton, Wake Forest). 17 top 100 RPI wins (19 by Pom). Resume valley: Nothing, really. Swept by really good Butler team. 
Kansas (28-4): Pom/RPI: 10/3. vs. RPI top 25: 6-2. vs. RPI top 100: 16-4
Resume peak: Elite SOS, 16 top 100 RPI wins (20 by Pom). Beat Duke, Kentucky in non-con away from home. Resume valley: Nothing, really. “Worst” loss was to Indiana, which plunged but was full strength in November. Loss to bubble-team TCU in Big 12 Tournament.
*Gonzaga (32-1): Pom/RPI: 1/8. vs. RPI top 25: 6-0. vs. RPI top 100: 12-1
Resume peak: 5-0 vs. RPI top 25. Away-from-home non-con wins vs. Arizona, Florida, Iowa State. Beat a very good Saint Mary’s team three times, by double-digits all three times. Resume valley: Home loss to BYU team not in the at-large picture. Weak conference means not as many top 100 wins as other No. 1 seed contenders.
North Carolina (27-7): Pom/RPI: 3/5. vs. RPI top 25: 5-4. vs. RPI top 100: 17-6
Resume peak: 11 RPI/Pom top 50 wins. Double-digit wins vs. Louisville, Virginia, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Miami. Resume valley: Not much. Just 3-5 vs. top 100 teams on the road.

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NCAA Tournament bracket projection: No. 2 seeds

*Duke (ACC), *Arizona (Pac-12), *Kentucky (SEC)

*Duke (27-8): Pom/RPI: 11/6. vs. RPI top 25: 8-4. vs. RPI top 100: 16-7
Resume peak: Elite wins away from home (at Virginia, Notre Dame, Florida, plus Louisville neutral). Resume valley: Home loss to N.C. State (RPI 136). Just 3-6 in ACC road games.
*Arizona (30-4): Pom/RPI: 22/2. vs. RPI top 25: 3-4. vs. RPI top 100: 17-5
Resume peak: Only two full-strength losses. Elite road win at UCLA. Resume valley: Not much. Non-con SOS outside top 100 (Pom). Only five RPI top 50 wins, which is far fewer than most other No. 1 seed contenders.
*Kentucky (29-5): Pom/RPI: 4/4. vs. RPI top 25: 3-4. vs. RPI top 100: 17-5
Resume peak: Beat current No. 1 seed UNC on neutral court. Solid non-con SOS (top 60 Pom). Four of UK’s five losses are to teams projected on the 1-2-3 seed lines. Resume valley: Only two RPI/Pom top 25 wins. Loss at Tennessee.
Oregon (29-5): Pom/RPI: 16/9. vs. RPI top 25: 2-3. vs. RPI top 100: 17-4
Resume peak: Crushed elite Arizona team. Only two full-strength losses. Resume valley: Best non-con win just Tennessee. Only four RPI top 50 wins. Full-strength loss at Colorado; loss to Georgetown (w/ Dillon Brooks limited).

FAGAN: Breaking down Duke's case for a No. 1 seed

NCAA Tournament bracket projection: No. 3 seeds

UCLA, Louisville, Baylor, Florida State

UCLA (29-4): Pom/RPI: 20/16. vs. RPI top 25: 3-3. vs. RPI top 100: 12-4
Resume peak: Elite wins at Kentucky, vs. Oregon, at Arizona. Resume valley: Awful non-con SOS (289 Pom) is by far the worst of any top-three seed contenders.
Louisville (24-8): Pom/RPI: 6/7. vs. RPI top 25: 4-7. vs. RPI top 100: 13-8
Resume peak: Beat Kentucky/Purdue/Wichita State/full-strength Indiana in non-con. No mediocre losses — “worst” is at bubble team Wake Forest. Resume valley: “Only” 4-6 vs. RPI top 25 could be determining factor keeping UL from No. 1 seed (but not a 2 seed).
Baylor (25-7): Pom/RPI: 12/11. vs. RPI top 25: 5-4. vs. RPI top 100: 14-6
Resume peak: Elite non-con wins (Louisville, Oregon, VCU, Xavier, Michigan State). Resume valley: Not much. Slumped late. Losses to bubble teams Texas Tech, Kansas State (twice).
Florida State (25-8): Pom/RPI: 21/13. vs. RPI top 25: 6-4. vs. RPI top 100: 16-6
Resume peak: Only one other team (Duke) has more than FSU’s six RPI top 25 wins. Road win at Virginia. Resume valley: Bad non-con SOS (250-plus Pom), just 3-6 on the road in ACC.

MORE: Did Sean Miller get revenge against UCLA with late timeout?

NCAA Tournament bracket projection: No. 4 seeds

West Virginia, Notre Dame, Butler, Florida

West Virginia (26-8): Pom/RPI: 5/24. vs. RPI top 25: 5-3. vs. RPI top 100: 13-5
Resume peak: Elite wins vs. Kansas, Baylor, at Virginia, at Oklahoma State. Resume valley: Inexcusable non-con SOS (330-plus Pom). Losses to Temple, Oklahoma.
Notre Dame (25-9): Pom/RPI: 25/23. vs. RPI top 25: 4-8. vs. RPI top 100: 13-8
Resume peak: Elite wins vs. Louisville, Florida State, Virginia (neutral). Road wins at Virginia Tech, Miami and Pittsburgh. Resume valley: Awful non-con SOS (270-plus Pom); only one non-con win against a team even on the bubble (Northwestern, neutral).
Butler (23-8): Pom/RPI: 26/14. vs. RPI top 25: 4-0. vs. RPI top 100: 16-5
Resume peak: Swept Villanova and Marquette. Non-con wins vs. Arizona, Indiana, Cincinnati, Northwestern. Resume valley: Head-scratching losses to Indiana State, St. John’s.
Florida (24-8): Pom/RPI: 9/10. vs. RPI top 25: 3-4. vs. RPI top 100: 15-8
Resume peak: Elite non-con SOS (top 15 Pom), computer numbers. Crushed Kentucky at home. Resume valley: Only one RPI/Pom top 20 win. Lost three times to bubble team Vanderbilt.

NCAA Tournament bracket projection: No. 5 seeds

Purdue, *SMU (AAC), Virginia, *Iowa State (Big 12)

Purdue (25-7): Pom/RPI: 15/20. vs. RPI top 25: 1-3. vs. RPI top 100: 12-6
Resume peak: Wins away from home vs. Notre Dame, Northwestern, Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana. Resume valley: Lack of elite wins, relatively speaking (mediocre Big Ten didn’t help). Bad non-con SOS (215-plus Pom).
*SMU (30-4): Pom/RPI: 14/15. vs. RPI top 25: 2-1. vs. RPI top 100: 10-4
Resume peak: Lots and lots of wins, only a couple losses. Resume valley: Only one of those wins came against a team in the RPI top 50.
Virginia (22-10): Pom/RPI: 7/18. vs. RPI top 25: 4-6. vs. RPI top 100: 14-10
Resume peak: Swept Louisville. Top-10 overall SOS (Pom). Road wins at Louisville, Notre Dame, Clemson, California. Resume valley: Nothing glaring. Stretch where Cavs lost six of eight (including by 24 at UNC).
*Iowa State (23-10): Pom/RPI: 19/22. vs. RPI top 25: 3-6. vs. RPI top 100: 11-9
Resume peak: HUGE road win at Kansas. Cyclones closed by winning nine of last 10 games, including wins away from home against Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State (they beat the Cowboys three times this year) and TCU. Won Big 12 Tournament title. Resume valley: Losses at teams outside the bubble (Texas, Iowa).

NCAA Tournament bracket projection: No. 6 seeds

Cincinnati, *Michigan (Big Ten), Wisconsin, Minnesota 

Cincinnati (29-5): Pom/RPI: 18/12. vs. RPI top 25: 2-3. vs. RPI top 100: 6-4
Resume peak: Non-con wins at Iowa State, vs. Xavier (full-strength Xavier). Resume valley: Serious lack of top 100 wins puts Cincy’s ceiling at a 4-seed.
*Michigan (24-11): Pom/RPI: 24/30. vs. RPI top 25: 5-2. vs. RPI top 100: 13-11
Resume peak: Charging hard; 9-2 since Feb. 7, including wins vs. Wisconsin, Purdue (twice), Minnesota, Michigan State and Illinois. Beat SMU, Marquette in non-con. Zero losses outside top 80 Pom/RPI. Resume valley: Just 3-8 in true road games.
Wisconsin (25-9): Pom/RPI: 17/32. vs. RPI top 25: 2-3. vs. RPI top 100: 13-9
Resume peak: Non-con wins vs. Syracuse, Marquette. Swept Minnesota. Resume valley: Resume is pretty thin, built mostly on wins vs. teams outside the RPI top 50. Lost five of last seven heading into Big Ten tournament. 
Minnesota (24-9): Pom/RPI: 33/21. vs. RPI top 25: 2-1. vs. RPI top 100: 12-8
Resume peak: Excellent Big 10 road wins at Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern. Resume valley: Gophers’ resume lacks “pop” to get into top three seeds, but really, this is a pretty solid resume.  

DECOURCY: Wolverines not throwing away shot at unprecedented Big Ten title

NCAA Tournament bracket projection: No. 7 seeds

Saint Mary’s, Creighton, Maryland, Dayton 

Saint Mary’s (28-4): Pom/RPI: 13/17. vs. RPI top 25: 0-3. vs. RPI top 100: 8-4
Resume peak: Excellent road win at Dayton. Shiny record. Beat BYU three times, which looks better after BYU beat Gonzaga. Resume valley: Awful non-con SOS (Pom 275-plus), swept by Gonzaga in regular season and WCC tournament.
Creighton (25-9): Pom/RPI: 27/26. vs. RPI top 25: 2-3. vs. RPI top 100: 10-8
Resume peak: Swept Butler (including road win after Mo Watson Jr.’s season-ending injury). Beat Wisconsin in November. Big East Tournament wins vs. Providence, Xavier. Resume valley: Creighton was 18-1 before Watson got hurt; Bluejays are just 6-7 without Watson, and four of those Ws were vs. DePaul (twice), St. John’s, Georgetown.
Maryland (24-8): Pom/RPI: 45/34. vs. RPI top 25: 1-2. vs. RPI top 100: 14-6
Resume peak: Shiny record. Road wins at Minnesota, Northwestern. Resume valley: Weak Big Ten hurt chances to get elite wins. Four losses to teams on bubble fringe (vs. Iowa) or beyond (vs. Nebraska, at Penn State, vs. Pittsburgh). 
Dayton (24-7): Pom/RPI: 37/28. vs. RPI top 25: 1-2. vs. RPI top 100: 12-4
Resume peak: Solid non-con SOS (top 80 Pom) includes wins vs. Vandy, Alabama, East Tennessee State. Resume valley: Lack of “signature” win; 10 top 100 wins vs. teams ranked 40-100.

NCAA Tournament bracket projection: No. 8 seeds

Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Miami, Seton Hall

Virginia Tech (22-10): Pom/RPI: 44/47. vs. RPI top 25: 2-6. vs. RPI top 100: 11-9
Resume peak: Home wins vs. Duke, Virginia, Miami. Road wins at Michigan, Clemson, Pitt. Resume valley: Awful non-con SOS (Pom 335-plus). 26-point loss at N.C. State.
Arkansas (25-9): Pom/RPI: 35/25. vs. RPI top 25: 0-4. vs. RPI top 100: 12-6
Resume peak: Wins at South Carolina, Vandy. Resume valley: Overall bland resume includes a stinker: Loss at Missouri (RPI 254).
Miami (21-11): Pom/RPI: 32/42. vs. RPI top 25: 3-8. vs. RPI top 100: 8-11
Resume peak: In ACC play, won at Virginia, beat UNC and Duke at home. Resume valley: Bad non-con SOS (275-plus Pom); “best” non-con win was Stanford. Just 3-6 on road in ACC.
Seton Hall (21-11): Pom/RPI: 53/44. vs. RPI top 25: 1-5. vs. RPI top 100: 9-10
Resume peak: Non-con wins vs. South Carolina, California. Home Big East wins vs. Marquette, Xavier, Creighton. Win at Butler clinched at-large bid. Resume valley: Losses to St. John’s, Stanford. Bad non-con SOS (Pom 215-plus).

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NCAA Tournament bracket projection: No. 9 seeds

*Wichita State (MVC), VCU, Oklahoma State, Northwestern

Wichita State (30-4): Pom/RPI: 8/31. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 3-4
Resume peak: Look at that Pomeroy number. In current 15-game winning streak, only one win by fewer than 15 points, including two blowouts of MVC’s second-best team, Illinois State (by 41 and 20 points). Resume valley: Complete lack of elite wins. Best are Illinois State (twice), at Colorado State and Oklahoma.
VCU (26-9): Pom/RPI: 48/19. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 9-6
Resume peak: Beat Dayton at home. Non-con wins vs. Princeton, Middle Tennessee and UNC Asheville (all either won their conference or tied for lead). Resume valley: Lack of top 50 wins. Loss at Fordham.
Oklahoma State (20-12): Pom/RPI: 23/40. vs. RPI top 25: 2-9. vs. RPI top 100: 6-11
Resume peak: Road wins at West Virginia, Wichita State (non-con), Texas Tech, Kansas State, TCU. Only one loss to team outside the bubble (at Texas). Resume valley: Just 1-7 vs. Big 12’s best teams (Kansas, West Virginia, Baylor, Iowa State).
Northwestern (23-11): Pom/RPI: 38/50. vs. RPI top 25: 0-5. vs. RPI top 100: 8-11
Resume peak: Non-con wins vs. Dayton, Wake Forest. Beat Wisconsin on road. Resume valley: Struggled down the stretch (lost six of nine in regular season). Swept by Illinois. Bad non-con SOS (Pom 240-plus).

NCAA Tournament bracket projection: No. 10 seeds

Xavier, South Carolina, Marquette, Michigan State

Xavier (21-13): Pom/RPI: 39/36. vs. RPI top 25: 1-6. vs. RPI top 100: 8-13
Resume peak: Huge Big East Tournament win vs. Butler. Excellent non-con SOS (top 40 Pom). Non-con wins vs. Clemson, Wake Forest. Resume valley: Just 6-6 since Edmund Sumner was lost for season with injury (though Trevon Bluiett was out for two of those), with three of those six wins vs. DePaul. 
South Carolina (22-10): Pom/RPI: 31/43. vs. RPI top 25: 1-3. vs. RPI top 100: 11-9
Resume peak: Beat Michigan, Syracuse in non-con. Beat Florida in SEC play. Resume valley: Struggled down the stretch, with only three wins (two vs. Mississippi State) in last nine games.
Marquette (19-12): Pom/RPI: 28/60. vs. RPI top 25: 1-3. vs. RPI top 100: 9-10
Resume peak: Beat No. 1 seed Villanova at home, Georgia on road. Swept Xavier (but after Sumner injury) and swept Creighton (but after the Watson injury). Resume valley: Shaky RPI number, as you see. Just 3-6 on road in Big East play. 
Michigan State (19-14): Pom/RPI: 43/51. vs. RPI top 25: 2-7. vs. RPI top 100: 9-12
Resume peak: Strong non-con SOS (top 60 Pom). Swept Minnesota. Beat Wichita State, Wisconsin, Northwestern. Resume valley: Losses to Northeastern, Penn State, Ohio State.

BENDER: 16 March Madness Cinderella players we'll never forget

NCAA Tournament bracket projection: No. 11 seeds

Wake Forest, USC, Vanderbilt, *Rhode Island (A-10), *Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Wake Forest (19-13): Pom/RPI: 30/39. vs. RPI top 25: 1-7. vs. RPI top 100: 8-13
Resume peak: HUGE wins to close regular season, vs. Louisville and at Virginia Tech. Strong non-con SOS (top 50 Pom). Beat Miami. Solid non-con wins vs. good mid-major teams Charleston, Bucknell. Resume valley: Just 1-7 vs. RPI top 25. Swept by Clemson. Just 3-6 on road in ACC.
Southern California (24-9): Pom/RPI: 60/41. vs. RPI top 25: 2-6. vs. RPI top 100: 6-8
Resume peak: Home wins vs. UCLA, SMU. Resume valley: Those are the only two wins vs. teams even remotely connected to the bubble. Loss at Arizona State (Pom 130). Bad non-con SOS (Pom 250-plus).
Vanderbilt (19-15): Pom/RPI: 34/38. vs. RPI top 25: 5-6. vs. RPI top 100: 11-14
Resume peak: Swept Florida, home and road and in SEC Tournament. Home wins vs. Iowa State, South Carolina. Eleven RPI/Pom top 100 wins. Strong computer numbers and non-con SOS (top 40 Pom). Resume valley: Lots of losses. Twenty-point loss at Missouri (RPI 254) wasn’t pretty. 
*Rhode Island (24-9): Pom/RPI: 41/37. vs. RPI top 25: 3-1. vs. RPI top 100: 9-7
Resume peak: Neutral-court win vs. Cincinnati. Beat VCU (twice), Belmont. Resume valley: Home losses to Fordham, La Salle among five to teams on wrong side of NCAA picture.

NCAA Tournament bracket projection: No. 12 seeds

Providence, Kansas State, *UNC Wilmington (CAA), *Nevada (MWC), *Vermont (America East)

Providence (20-12): Pom/RPI: 56/56. vs. RPI top 25: 1-4. vs. RPI top 100: 8-9
Resume peak: Six-game winning streak to end season included four wins vs. at-large teams (vs. Butler, vs. Xavier, at Creighton, vs. Marquette). Resume valley: Bad non-con SOS (275-plus), with best win vs. bubble Rhode Island. Also, losses to DePaul, Boston College, St. John’s.
Kansas State (20-13): Pom/RPI: 29/57. vs. RPI top 25: 3-7. vs. RPI top 100: 6-11
Resume peak: Elite wins at Baylor, vs. Baylor (neutral, in Big 12 Tournament), vs. West Virginia, at Oklahoma State. Resume valley: Horrid non-con SOS (Pom 300-plus), with only one non-con win (Colorado State) vs. top 150 team. 30-point loss at Big 12’s last-place team, Oklahoma.

No. 13 seeds: *Princeton (Ivy), *East Tennessee State (SoCon), *New Mexico State (WAC), *Bucknell (Patriot)
No. 14 seeds: *Winthrop (Big South), *Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun), *Kent State (Mid-American), *Iona (Metro Atlantic)
No. 15 seeds: *Northern Kentucky (Horizon), *UC Davis (Big West), *Texas Southern (Southwestern), *North Dakota (Big Sky)
No. 16 seeds: *North Carolina Central (Mid-Eastern), *New Orleans (Southland), *South Dakota State (Summit), *Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), *Troy (Sun Belt), *Jacksonville State (Ohio Valley)

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Bubble boys 

California (21-12): Pom/RPI: 58/54. vs. RPI top 25: 0-7. vs. RPI top 100: 6-12
Resume peak: Best Ws are Princeton, Southern California. Resume valley: Bad non-con SOS (Pom 220-plus). Zero wins vs. at-large locks. Finished regular season with five losses in six games (only win vs. 5-26 Oregon State).
Syracuse (18-14): Pom/RPI: 51/84. vs. RPI top 25: 3-4. vs. RPI top 100: 8-9
Resume peak: Elite wins vs. Duke, Florida State and Virginia. Resume valley: But … worst RPI to ever get an at-large was 71 (coincidentally, Syracuse last year) and you see the Orange’s RPI now.
Illinois State (27-6): Pom/RPI: 52/33. vs. RPI top 25: 0-0. vs. RPI top 100: 2-4
Resume peak: Beat Wichita State. Shiny record. No. 1 seed in Missouri Valley Tournament. Resume valley: Wichita State is the only decent win, but also lost to Shockers twice by 20-plus points. Losses to Murray State (RPI 230), split with Tulsa (RPI 129). 
Illinois (18-14): Pom/RPI: 70/64. vs. RPI top 25: 1-4. vs. RPI top 100: 10-11
Resume peak: Swept Northwestern. Wins vs. Michigan, VCU, Michigan State among 10 RPI top 100 wins. Resume valley: Swept by Penn State. Worst loss of the year in regular-season finale, at Rutgers (Pom 131).
Georgia (19-14): Pom/RPI: 57/52. vs. RPI top 25: 0-7. vs. RPI top 100: 7-13
Resume peak: Solid non-con SOS (Pom 43). Played well on the road vs. SEC’s best — lost in OT at both Florida and Kentucky, by two points at South Carolina. Resume valley: Zero wins vs. at-large locks; best Ws are against Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Tennessee.
TCU (19-15): Pom/RPI: 40/68. vs. RPI top 25: 2-9. vs. RPI top 100: 4-12
Resume peak: Huge Big 12 Tournament win vs. Kansas. Road win at Kansas State. Home wins vs. Iowa State, Illinois State. Resume valley: Serious lack of Top 100 wins, which is probably inexcusable in that league with a ton of opportunities. Bad non-con SOS (Pom 240-plus). Ended regular season on seven-game losing streak.

Ryan Fagan