It’s all about UConn.
The weekend’s events made it clear that the Huskies not only are the reigning champions, and the betting favorite to win 2024 edition of March Madness, but they also are the No. 1 overall seed in 2024 March Madness.
And who looks formidable enough to stand in their way?
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Purdue, North Carolina, Arizona, and Tennessee have all had great seasons. Houston dominated a Big 12 conference that sent eight teams into the NCAA tournament field.
What did the Huskies do? They vaniqushed a Big East so thoroughly that only two more of its members wound up in the 68-team bracket.
There may be dangers in trying to stop the Illinois offensive attack that could arrive in a potential East Region Sweet 16, or possibly later on having to cope with one of the heaters Caleb Love can generate if both the Huskies and Arizona reach the Final Four – in Arizona, of course, at Glendale’s State FarmStadium. But it looks to me like this is Connecticut’s championship to win. Again.
EXPERT PICKS: Bender (UConn) | Iyer (UConn) | Yanchulis (South Carolina women)
March Madness Bracket predictions 2024
South Region picks
FIRST ROUND
1 Houston over 16 Longwood
9 Texas A&M over 8 Nebraska
12 James Madison over 5 Wisconsin
4 Duke over 13 Vermont
6 Texas Tech over 11 NC State
3 Kentucky over 14 Oakland
10 Boise State/Colorado over 7 Florida
2 Marquette over 15 Western Kentucky
SECOND ROUND
1 Houston over 9 Texas A&M
4 Duke over 12 James Madison
3 Kentucky over 6 Texas Tech
2 Marquette over 10 Boise State/Colorado
SWEET 16
1 Houston over 4 Duke
3 Kentucky over 2 Marquette
ELITE EIGHT
3 Kentucky over 1 Houston
In 2005, when a terrific Wake Forest team led by future NBA superstar Chris Paul took a No. 1 ranking on the road to Illinois for a huge early season game, the Illini turned out to be up for the challenge and put a 91-73 beating on the Demon Deacons.
One of college basketball’s top analysts then said in the hallway outside the locker room: “You don’t come back from a beating like that.”
And he was right.
But it’s different now. In 2014, UConn lost, 81-48 on the final day of the regular season and came back a month later and claimed an improbable NCAA Championship.
So can Houston recover even more quickly from the humiliation of its 69-41 loss in the Big 12 Tournament title game?
They’ve got a region with some dynamite offensive teams to challenge the Cougars’ usually overwhelming defense: No. 3 seed Kentucky, No. 4 seed Duke, No. 2 seed Marquette when the Golden Eagles are healthy and at their best. Houston might not play any of them and certainly can’t play all, but it only takes one.
PRINTABLE: Downland a blank March Madness bracket here
East Region picks
FIRST ROUND
1 UConn over 16 Stetson
9 Northwestern over 8 Florida Atlantic
5 San Diego State over 12 UAB
4 Auburn over 13 Yale
6 BYU over 11 Duquesne
3 Illinois over 14 Morehead State
10 Drake over 7 Washington State
2 Iowa State over 15 South Dakota State
SECOND ROUND
1 UConn over 9 Northwestern
4 Auburn over 5 San Diego State
3 Illinois over 6 BYU
2 Iowa State over 10 Drake
SWEET 16
1 UConn over 4 Auburn
3 Illinois over 2 Iowa State
ELITE EIGHT
1 UConn over 3 Illinois
Are you not entertained?
OK, it hasn’t started yet.
Well, wait until it does.
Wait until the possibility of Illinois vs. BYU develops in the second round. Wait until you see how dynamic this version of UConn basketball has become. But if you’re looking for suspense, you came to the wrong region. Because no one who doesn’t call himself a Husky is getting out of this region, except to go home and plan for 2024-25.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Midwest Region picks
FIRST ROUND
1 Purdue over 16 Montana State/Grambling State
8 Utah State over 9 TCU
5 Gonzaga over 12 McNeese
4 Kansas over 13 Samford
11 Oregon over 6 South Carolina
3 Creighton over 14 Akron
7 Texas over 10 Virginia/Colorado State
2 Tennessee over 15 Saint Peter's
SECOND ROUND
1 Purdue over 8 Utah State
4 Kansas over 5 Gonzaga
3 Creighton over 11 Oregon
2 Tennessee over 7 Texas
SWEET 16
4 Kansas over 1 Purdue
2 Tennessee over 3 Creighton
ELITE EIGHT
2 Tennessee over 4 Kansas
Purdue’s every step will be monitored to see if the Boilers will finally get past the first round, and the second, and the Sweet 16, and maybe even the Elite Eight into a Final Four for the first time since 1980.
When your recent tournament history consists of losing to a No. 14 seed in the first round, then a 15 seed in the Sweet 16, then only the second 16-over-1 upset in the history of the tournament, all this following an overtime loss in the Elite Eight in 2019 that could have been secured by a single free throw – your tournament troubles are going to be the subject of endless conversation.
They can say this team is different. And, in this case, it happens to be true.
Until they achieve different results in this event, though, it won’t really matter.
MORE: Watch the 2024 NCAA Tournament with Sling TV
West Region picks
FIRST ROUND
1 North Carolina over 16 Howard/Wagner
8 Mississippi State over 9 Michigan State
5 St. Mary's over 12 Grand Canyon
4 Alabama over 13 Charleston
11 New Mexico over 6 Clemson
3 Baylor over 14 Colgate
10 Nevada over 7 Dayton
2 Arizona over 15 Long Beach State
SECOND ROUND
1 North Carolina over 8 Mississippi State
5 St. Mary's over 4 Alabama
3 Baylor over 11 New Mexico
2 Arizona over 10 Nevada
SWEET 16
1 North Carolina over 5 St. Mary's
2 Arizona over 3 Baylor
ELITE EIGHT
2 Arizona over 1 North Carolina
This is the region where the committee sent seemingly every team you couldn’t trust as far as you could throw the team bus.
Arizona, the team that managed to win the Pac-12 Conference while losing to the three teams at the bottom of the standings. Has that ever happened before, in major-conference basketball history? Clemson, the team that could have locked up a No. 6 seed by beating Boston College in the ACC Tournament and couldn’t get it done – and, oh look, the seed-challenged committee gave them one, anyway! North Carolina, the team that couldn’t win a championship against a rival it earlier defeated by double-digits on the road.
Ah, but somebody’s got to win it.
And wouldn’t it be cool if it comes down to North Carolina vs. Arizona, to RJ Davis and Armando Bacot of the Heels vs. Caleb Love of the Wildcats. They were teammates on the 2022 Carolina Final Four team, but throughout the season that followed it was fairly obvious they were not sharing a sewing circle.
I couldn’t have been the only one who thought, after Davis and Bacot announced they were returning for this season, there was no doubt Love would announce his transfer soon after.
Final Four picks
1 UConn over 2 Arizona
2 Tennessee over 3 Kentucky
1 UConn over 2 Tennessee
There are ingredients to a national championship team that only a few teams possess each year, and there are fewer such teams this time around: one or more future NBA first-round picks; a point guard who is preferably a future pro but at minimum is a high-end playmaker and leader; at least one dynamic wing who can create his own shot; high-level rim protection and top-20 performance in offensive and defensive efficiency.
These qualities are featured in nearly every champion over the past 25 years. There hasn’t been an NCAA Champion without a future first-round pick since 1987. Only one team in the “KenPom era” – which dates to 1999, won it all without compiling a top-20 offense and defense ranking over a full season.
UConn is one team that has these qualities. Tennessee is in the neighborhood with its No. 29 offense (and No. 3 defense). There aren’t many more. So does the champion come from that subset of teams?
Yeah, I think so.
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