UConn is trying to become the first team to repeat as men’s NCAA Tournament champions since Florida won back-to-back titles in 2006-07.
We tried to pick Kansas to do the same thing last season – and the end result was another first-weekend busted bracket.
This UConn team feels different. In fact, the comparisons with that second Florida national championship team are striking. The Huskies average 81.5 points per game and allow 64.4 ppg. That Florida team scored 79.8 ppg. and gave up 62.6 ppg.
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Those Gators had five players who had double figures and NBA talent off the bench. UConn has five players who have double figures, led by all-around guard Tristen Newton. The Huskies might not have Al Horford and Joakim Noah, but 7-2 center Donovan Clingan (7.2 rebounds per game) leads a group that has five players who average 4.5 rebounds. UConn ranks 10th in the country in rebounding margin. Billy Donovan and Danny Hurley were Big East basketball players and are the epitome of East Coast-tough basketball coaches.
Is UConn upset proof? Nobody is in this tournament, but they took care of business when Houston, Purdue and North Carolina did not on conference tournament weekend. The Huskies had three road losses at Kansas, Seton Hall and Creighton this year, and that Florida team had four road losses – including Kansas – and a neutral-site loss that season.
If there has been a team built to repeat like those Gators did, then it’s this UConn team.
Who will fill out the rest of the backet with UConn in the East? We’ll go with North Carolina on one side with Houston and Tennessee on the other.
Here is a look at the bracket.
MORE EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (UConn) | Iyer (UConn) | Yanchulis (South Carolina women)
March Madness Bracket predictions 2024
East Region picks
FIRST ROUND
1 UConn over 16 Stetson
8 FAU over 9 Northwestern
5 San Diego State over 12 UAB
4 Auburn over 13 Yale
11 Duquesne over 6 BYU
3 Illinois over 14 Morehead State
10 Drake over 7 Washington State
2 Iowa State over 15 South Dakota State
SECOND ROUND
1 UConn over 8 FAU
4 Auburn over 5 San Diego State
3 Illinois over 11 Duquesne
10 Drake over 2 Iowa State
SWEET 16
1 UConn over 4 Auburn
3 Illinois over 10 Drake
ELITE EIGHT
1 UConn over 3 Illinois
They did not make it easy on UConn with two of last year's Final Four participants in FAU and San Diego State also in the top half of the East Region and three other power conference tournament champs in Auburn, Illinois and Iowa State. The Huskies, however, have the depth and rebounding necessary to get through those games – and having the first weekend in Brooklyn is a huge help. Auburn – which won the SEC tournament – will also be a large road-block for the Huskies given the Tigers are scoring 83.2 points per game.
The bottom half is an opportunity to take some shots on a couple-double digit seeds. Duquesne has the defense to pull off a first-round upset against BYU, and Drake has one of the best scorers in the tournament in Tucker DeVries. Is that enough to knock off Iowa State in a charged-up all-Iowa second-round matchup? We're willing to take that risk.
This is all a convenient way to clear out an Elite Eight path for Big Ten tournament champion Illinois – which is a make-or-break portion of the bracket. Brad Underwood has yet to get past the first weekend with the Illini over the last three years, but Terrence Shannon is coming off a tournament in which he averaged 34 points per game. That is a game-changer that could make an Elite Eight matchup with UConn enticing. Iowa State absolutely could blow this entire theory up, but this is the opportunity for one of those No. 2 seed shockers.
It doesn't matter. We just don't see anyone but UConn coming out of the East Region in Boston.
PRINTABLE: Downland a blank March Madness bracket here
South Region picks
FIRST ROUND
1 Houston over 16 Longwood
8 Nebraska over 9 Texas A&M
12 James Madison over 5 Wisconsin
4 Duke over 13 Vermont
6 Texas Tech over 11 NC State
3 Kentucky over 14 Oakland
7 Florida over 10 Colorado
2 Marquette over 15 Western Kentucky
SECOND ROUND
1 Houston over 8 Nebraska
12 James Madison over 4 Duke
3 Kentucky over 6 Texas Tech
2 Marquette over 7 Florida
SWEET 16
1 Houston over 12 James Madison
3 Kentucky over 2 Marquette
ELITE EIGHT
1 Houston over 3 Kentucky
Injuries are a huge part of what transpires in the South Region. Houston's J'wan Roberts and Marquette's Tyler Kolek were nursing injuries on conference tournament weekend. Florida center Micah Handlogten suffered a broken leg.
Houston's dud in the Big 12 championship game is an almost-lock that they will be a touch under the radar despite the full-season body of work in one of the nation's toughest conferences. The Cougars still are tied for the nation's best defensive efficiency rating, and Kelvin Sampson had pushed this team to the second weekend in each of their last four tournament appearances. While the possibility for a second-round matchup with Texas A&M exists, we think the Cougars take care of business against Nebraska.
James Madison will be everybody's Cinderella in that 5-12 matchup, so we're going to push through an upset against Duke and put the Dukes in the Sweet 16 instead. That will clear the way for the Cougars to get to the Elite Eight.
We said before the Selection Show that Kentucky would be the team that makes or breaks your bracket. A second-round matchup against Texas Tech will be that pivot point. The Wildcats will break through and knock off Marquette in the Sweet 16, and we were tempted to go all-in and push Kentucky past Houston. We just can't ignore that defensive efficiency statistic. The Cougars beat the Wildcats in Dallas to get back to the Final Four.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Midwest Region picks
FIRST ROUND
1 Purdue over 16 Grambling
8 Utah State over 9 TCU
5 Gonzaga over 12 McNeese
4 Kansas over 13 Samford
11 Oregon over 6 South Carolina
3 Creighton over 14 Akron
7 Texas over 10 Colorado State
2 Tennessee over 15 St. Peter’s
SECOND ROUND
1 Purdue over 8 Utah State
4 Kansas over 5 Gonzaga
3 Creighton over 11 Oregon
2 Tennessee over 7 Texas
SWEET 16
1 Purdue over 4 Kansas
2 Tennessee over 3 Creighton
ELITE EIGHT
2 Tennessee over 1 Purdue
It's a matter of trust in this bracket – which will have the chalkiest look in the Sweet 16 with all of the top four seeds making it to the second weekend.
Purdue? The Boilermakers haven't been to the Final Four since 1980, and two-time Sporting News Player of the Year Zach Edey is tasked with helping the program exorcise the ghosts of North Texas, Saint Peter's and Fairleigh Dickinson. Matt Painter is able to do that, and Purdue gets through a tough second-round matchup against Utah State to push to Detroit.
Kansas? The Jayhawks have injuries – namely to stars Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar. Gonzaga is over-seeded a touch, and McNeese and Samford are both going to be trendy upset picks as a result. McNeese – with former LSU coach Will Wade – is the more dangerous of the two against Gonzaga.
Tennessee? Does anybody trust Rick Barnes, who might have to lead the Volunteers against Texas in the second round? Creighton also is in that half of the region, and the Bluejays are looking for their first Final Four appearance.
It's a multiple-choice question with no right answer, until you factor in Dalton Knecht. The Vols guard averaged 21.1 points per game and is the type of player who can lead that Final Four run. Purdue beat Tennessee 99-94 in the Sweet 16 in 2019 in one of the great tournament games in recent memory.
Given what both schools have endured since in trying to get to the Final Four, this game could be every bit as entertaining. We'll take Tennessee – which despite the SEC tournament no-show will bounce back at the most-opportune time.
MORE: Watch the 2024 NCAA Tournament with Sling TV
West Region picks
FIRST ROUND
1 North Carolina over 16 Wagner
9 Michigan State over 8 Mississippi State
5 Saint Mary's over 12 Grand Canyon
4 Alabama over 13 Charleston
11 New Mexico over 6 Clemson
3 Baylor over 14 Colgate
7 Dayton over 10 Nevada
2 Arizona over 15 Long Beach State
SECOND ROUND
1 North Carolina over 9 Michigan State
5 Saint Mary's over 4 Alabama
3 Baylor over 11 New Mexico
2 Arizona over 7 Dayton
SWEET 16
1 North Carolina over 5 St. Mary's
3 Baylor over 2 Arizona
ELITE EIGHT
3 Baylor over 1 North Carolina
North Carolina was the last No. 1 seed, and they have the right mix of offensive firepower with RJ Davis and Armando Bacot to win the national championship. The defensive metrics check out, and Hubert Davis is just one year removed from leading the Tar Heels to a national championship appearance. Michigan State presents a defensive challenge, and Alabama can score with anybody. Could St. Mary’s pull off that upset against the Crimson Tide? The Gaels have five players who score in double-figures, but they have not advanced to the Sweet 16 since 2009-10. It’s one of those easy-to-miss potential sleepers as a result.
Baylor is another team we’re counting on despite some holes in Scott Drew’s team. The Bears were 4-5 against top-25 teams this season, and they lost two of their last three games. It’s easy to get off that team, but their half of the bracket is doable knowing that Arizona has been just as inconsistent in the Pac-12. Dayton and New Mexico are potential sleepers on that side that could wreck a chalky matchup between the Bears and Wildcats, but we’ll trust Baylor.
Remember that 93-86 classic between the Tar Heels and Bears in the 2022 NCAA Tournament? Both fan-bases do, and the rematch will be just as entertaining. This time, Baylor pulls through as an underdog to advance to the Final Four after consecutive second-round exits. North Carolina can buck that trend and we wouldn’t be surprised, but we’ll stick with Baylor as the unexpected Final Four team from the No. 3 seed.
Final Four picks
1 UConn over 3 Baylor
1 Houston over 2 Tennessee
1 UConn over 1 Houston
Look for a chalk-strikes-back Final Four of sorts, and the Big 12 will be the focus with two Final Four teams. UConn powers through Baylor in the first round in what could be a great guard matchup between Tristen Newton and Ja'Kobe Walker. Houston beats Tennessee and gives Sampson that long-awaited championship shot. The Huskies, however, have enough balance and rebounding on offense to make it happen, and Danny Hurley makes the right adjustments at the right time. UConn is the first back-to-back champion since 2006-07.
